Unemployment rolls reached a record 6.79 million. Last weeks Unemployment report revised to 636,00 new claims .. up 5,000. This week reports NEW claims at 623,000 down 13,000 from revised number but only down 8,000 from the original stated number. While April durable goods orders increased 1.9% (ex transport only 0.8%) from March it is still down overall. Blips of this nature showing positive results are inconsistent at this time and do not show any sustainable “bottom” to the current economic crisis at this time. Stock market still continues to react in an irrational and volatile manner. More PRIME mortgages are now delinquent then sub prime. Half of ALL foreclosures are now for vacant houses with no ability to renegotiate. Housing sales increaded by a marginal 11,00 units last month but PRICES have significantly declined year over year. NO bottom yet seen for the housing market in prices.
May 28, 2009
May 23, 2009
Unemployment, Employment and Wages as REAL Indicators of Economic Health or Recovery
There are 3 numbers that need to be considered:
First the NEW claims… this is how many jobs have been recently been lost.
Second is the Continuing Claims.. meaning those that are on unemployment but have yet to find a job.
Third is the EMPLOYMENT number.. by which we can see if the number of jobs have increased in the region.
The numbers we DON’T know are those who have taken part time jobs or are underemployed (i.e. a cabinet maker now bagging groceries are a substantial decrease in wages)and/or those that have totally given up in looking for work.
Therefor to see ANY recovery or trend we must look at the total employment numbers as well as the total wages paid and compare them over a period of time. Minor adjustments can cause a false impression of the real numbers so be careful when trying to anticipate a future based upon a blip in data.
As our economy has generally been 70 percent consumer driven it may be a better indicator to look at these numbers instead of the current irrational and speculative stock market as an indicator of our economy.
