Craig Eisele on …..

January 11, 2009

2009 Economic Predictions by Craig Eisele


2009 Economic projections by Craig Eisele

Note: the following is MY opinion and how I see the economy… it should not be considered investment advice or factual as to the actual performance of the US and Global Economies in 2009.

If you do not want to hear bad news I strongly suggest you stop reading at this point and read a good fiction book….or watch Kudlow on CNBC who is more of a cheerleader then as realist…. Although a caution as to the rest of the CNBC team as they seem to realize more the current economic realities.

One of the greatest threats we face is Deflation during this recession… WHY?? Because the economic definition of a DEPRESSION is Recession accompanied by Deflation… BUT do not expect the government to say we are in a Depression until it is either over or is so evident that denying it would be fruitless. The government is afraid to start any panic as to the true severity of this crisis we are in and as such will try to protect the citizens as long as possible from the hard realities.

Before this economic crises is over I believe that we will see history actually show that we have or will have had entered into a Depression…. The only question is: for how long.

In the United States approximately 70 percent of our economy is based upon Consumer spending…  as such Particular attention will be paid to that segment of the economy.

Estimates so far are that at least 70,000 retail locations are expected to close in 2009. Personally I see that number even higher and expect over 100,000. Thus higher unemployment will occur.

Personal savings rate will continue to be negative throughout the year with rare occurrence of it turning positive.

Over all the consumer is being hit with rising prices from the Summer 08 Oil Prices and those prices have not come down in tandem with Oil. Corporations are struggling to meet cash flow needs and turn profits for their shareholders and as such are reluctant to lower prices.

Credit will not loosen very much in 2009… Credit card companies will continue to reduce credit limits (2 Trillion dollars so far) and will raise interest rates on balances even for the slightest blemish or down grading of your credit. Keeping your credit cards in the back of a drawer and NOT canceling them is advisable.

Expect Congress to address these issues in Credit Card operations and policies in 2009 in an attempt to protect consumers a bit better… but high expectations for relief should be discouraged because of the powerful lobbying teams of Banks and other financial institutions. Result Consumers will and should pay down more of their debt and spend less thus creating Consumer slow down in spending in 2009.

Oil Prices will NOT stay low for long. Oil Producing Countries need the revenue for their own countries economies…. Demand may be down globally but the minimum necessary price is 45 dollars a barrel while countries like Venezuela, Iran, Russia etc require upwards of 70 dollars a barrel to keep their domestic programs going and to maintain their economies. Expect Oil close to or above 100 dollars a barrel by the end of 2009 based upon the needs of the Oil Producing Countries.

Job Loss and fear of Job Loss with hamper Consumer Spending even farther. This includes areas like housing and Auto sales as well.

Credit availability for Housing will be tight for many years to come. Impeccable credit and a hefty down payment  of 20 percent or more,will be required as it was over a decade ago. The result will be a continuing deflation in Housing prices and no bottom expected until mid 2010. These expectations of losing money on a new home purchase will also keep many buyers on the sidelines.

Credit will also suffer because of continued required write-downs by Mortgage holders and those holding the Mortgage backed securities. Expect the Foreclosure rate to keep high thus flooding the market with additional homes. This credit problem will be further exacerbated by rises in Commercial Mortgage defaults. Particularly in Retail Commercial properties.

The measure of companies with retail locations in terms of profitability will be changed. MOST leases no Commercial Property like retail are triple net… meaning that the tenants are responsible to paying a pro rated share based upon occupancy of leased space for Utilities, Taxes and maintenance. The additional burden placed upon them buy the loss of other retailers coupled by decreasing sales will cause more stores to close. Currently the VACANCY rate in retail locations is at 8.2%. That will continue to rise throughout 2009.

Commercial Mortgages are often done with long amortization rates meaning 10 to 30 years mortgage payment rates, with a balloon payment (the full balance of the Loan) due after 5 years. As properties increased in value and occupancy rates were high and credit was readily available this was not a concern. Today, however, those criteria for refinancing can no longer be met by most mall operators or owners of other retail properties. Even the Commercial office space Market will be effected.

Loss of retail also usually has a negative effect in Commercial Office space… and even the A class properties are now feeing the potential problems growing. Expect an increase in “services” oriented companies across the USA and several hundred thousand jobs lost as a result, many of which do not and will not qualify for unemployment compensation to help them.

The stock markets will continue to act in a volatile and irrational way. Over reaction to perceived good news and bad news will move the market in triple digits and randomly. If you are brave and can wait 10 years or more for profits then now is the time to buy select companies that may recover faster as the economy bottoms and flattens in 2010.

Federal funds rate will not be increased for the first half of 2009, but may have a slight increase of 0.25 to0.50 in the second half of 2009 and into 2010 as the dollar weakens and the need to strengthen the dollar increases.

The need to have safety for cash will continue to hold the Treasury Bonds yield down to hover at or near zero as banks are not considered safe enough and consumers are fearful.

Bank Write offs will continue and the biggest shocks to the market will be in Commercial backed mortgages as well as increased Credit Card default rate as climbing interest rates and lack of credit availability will force consumers into decisions that will not factor most creditors.

Housing prices will continue to decline throughout 2009. Lack of demand and increased inventories by those underwater on their mortgages and those foreclosed upon homes, and the lack of credit and the return to the requirements of old with 20 percent or more down and verifiable rations of income to mortgage payments as well as HIGH credit scores… all combined will be a continued drag in the housing market and will even affect places like New York City on 2009 through at least the first half of 1020.

Retirees will delay their retirement and the “equity” they thought they had in their homes and the devastation to their retirement funds will be so bad as to force more people to work longer and will contribute to the lack of available jobs for younger people.

Unemployment will rise to double digits…. Most likely to around 11 percent official and 17 percent unofficial Unemployed people will number more than 18 million people.  Currently the Unemployment are has gone over 7.2%. I expect that before we flatten out that number will grow to close to 11 percent. Currently the number of those unemployed is over 6 million…. but those numbers a skewed to those who qualified for unemployment and or are seeking employment actively.  The REAL number of unemployed is substantially higher if the number of those underemployed, working only part time, or who have given up looking for work are included. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose to 2.6 million in December and was up by 1.3 million in 2008.

Bankruptcies will hit all time highs both for individuals and Businesses.

The Auto Industry: This is the hardest to predict in some ways. BUT… Knowing that credit is hard to get to purchase an automobile, and that demand is down because individual consumers are feeling the economic pinch and are concerned about their declining home and retirement values, and compounded by job uncertainty will make any recover of the Auto Industry in general almost impossible in 2009. While most of us abhor the idea that the “Big Three” in Detroit may declare bankruptcy. I see no choice especially given the legacy costs of pensions and health care that hurts their price competitiveness. Premium prices for things like the Chevy VOLT or other fuel-efficient cars will not me tolerated by a price sensitive consumer market in these economic times. Therefore the demand that Auto Makes produce these cars, while admirable, is not productive to the automotive industry recovery at this time.

The result of the above will be continued declines and flattening of the Auto sales, which of course, contributes considerably to the GDP of the United States. A downward spiral that cannot be stopped without bankruptcy to protect those companies and jobs till the economy flattens out and hopefully and gradually raises enough to spur more automobile sales.  Bottom line…. expect one or more of the Detroit 3 to declare bankruptcy in 2009.

GDP Contraction 5 % or more: I hope this is self evident given what I have already written…. the ONLY way this will not happen in 2009 is if we devalue our dollar by printing more money…. but that results in hyper inflation and higher prices which would artificially make our GDP that much higher.

Federal budget deficit of 1 trillion and growing to possibly 2 TRILLION as the need for spending like the years of Roosevelt in the New Deal Era increases and as the concession to business for tax rates being the same or even lower taxes are made and the revenue for the US Government continues to decline from Lower profit, less payroll tax income and growing social programs to assist the impoverished. The NATIONAL DEBT will run higher than 12 trillion dollars UNLESS the government prints more money…. but that will further weaken the value of the US dollar. A delicate trade off that has to be dealt with in 2009.

LOWER corporate taxes and/or Capital Gains in a declining economy will NOT spur employment or Investment in Pant or equipment. The only people who will possibly benefit are those who own stocks in those companies. And even then the benefits will be minimal. Worse the Down side is lower revenue for the government in a time when spending must be increased to spur economic recovery.

Globally expect more instability in under-developed countries. Poverty, starvation and generally declining conditions in these countries will give rise to radical idealists who will create chaos and instability in those countries. Antagonistic behavior towards those industrialized countries that are seen as culprits in this economic crisis will be the most villianized. Terrorism abroad will increase in response to the frustration and need to blame someone increases.

Currency fluctuations will be as common as weather changes during 2009. 30-day moves can exceed 15 percent and daily moves may be as much as 5 percent. Thus this will make international business more volatile and difficult to conduct.

Parity with Euro and British Pound is possible given the currency fluctuation at this time only a 10 percent difference exists between the 2 currencies. Briton will continue to decline as the full effects of their new economy that was built on the financial sector and debt continues to play out.  France and Germany have yet to feel the real impact of what is happening globally and as such have been the prop to the Euro over the last year. The EU’s efforts to prop up Eastern European Counties with bailouts will have little effect on the full impact of the global recession. Ultimately the Euro will have to decline in value.

Weaken of the dollar … then strengthen and weakening. The Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the British Pound with fluctuate so much that any stability for the dollar will have to come from the USA itself. However that appears unlikely until the USA takes drastic steps to stem the bleeding and ultimately devalues the dollar.

EU predictions Italy and possibly Spain: I expect al least Italy to go back to the Lira and to try an peg the Lira to the Euro to allow it to re-enter the EU Euro denomination Currency in a few years. This will be necessary as the Italian economy and the EU regulations are in conflict and Italy cannot meet the EU demands for economic reform to satisfy the EU regulations. Spain faces the same situation.

France and German Social programs will be the downfall of these economies. With a global recession and decline in local economies the demand for these generous programs will go to an all time high and will send them into a deeper recession as they struggle to balance budgets and stem spending.

China will see continued decline in growth based upon the global economy. It is unclear if their domestic consumption can make up for the downturn. It may now feel the effect of the lack of a substantial Middle class and sustainable consumer base

India is just now feeling the effects, and as global outsourcing to India shrinks, and the allegations that the financial accounting is being doctored by some to keep showing profits surface. The “middle class” is mostly dependent on the global outsourcing in areas of IT and calling centers, which are declining rapidly. India will experience a recession that is severe and has potentially serious consequences on its economic stability.

It seems inevitable that the United States Government will be forced in 2009 or early 2010 to print more Dollars, to buy its own debt and to pay for spending programs as debt is not being bought by most companies or countries or even individuals. Hence a devaluation of the dollar… expect Euro and Pound to follow and a period of hyper inflation accompanied by higher interest rates when that happens.

I was reluctant to write this piece as I hoed to see more indications that things would improve…. However, that has not happened and the result is a significant delay in my predictions.

I hope I am just a pessimist.. however at this time I think I am more of a realist in how things are at this point in time. Things CAN change.. and my predictions can be totally wrong. But for that to happen requires political will and individual determination….And I see no signs of that at this time.

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with my assessments made her.. YOU must decide for your self what you need to do if this scenario does take place… or if it does not. These are things the way I see them and should NOT be taken as factual or advice to anyone.

Craig Eisele

2009 Economic projections by Craig Eisele

Note: the following is MY opinion and how I see the economy… it should not be considered investment advice or factual as to the actual performance of the US and Global Economies in 2009.

If you do not want to hear bad news I strongly suggest you stop reading at this point and read a good fiction book….or watch Kudlow on CNBC who is more of a cheerleader then as realist…. Although a caution as to the rest of the CNBC team as they seem to realize more the current economic realities.

One of the greatest threats we face is Deflation during this recession… WHY?? Because the economic definition of a DEPRESSION is Recession accompanied by Deflation… BUT do not expect the government to say we are in a Depression until it is either over or is so evident that denying it would be fruitless. The government is afraid to start any panic as to the true severity of this crisis we are in and as such will try to protect the citizens as long as possible from the hard realities.

Before this economic crises is over I believe that we will see history actually show that we have or will have had entered into a Depression…. The only question is: for how long.

In the United States approximately 70 percent of our economy is based upon Consumer spending…  as such Particular attention will be paid to that segment of the economy.

Estimates so far are that at least 70,000 retail locations are expected to close in 2009. Personally I see that number even higher and expect over 100,000. Thus higher unemployment will occur.

Personal savings rate will continue to be negative throughout the year with rare occurrence of it turning positive.

Over all the consumer is being hit with rising prices from the Summer 08 Oil Prices and those prices have not come down in tandem with Oil. Corporations are struggling to meet cash flow needs and turn profits for their shareholders and as such are reluctant to lower prices.

Credit will not loosen very much in 2009… Credit card companies will continue to reduce credit limits (2 Trillion dollars so far) and will raise interest rates on balances even for the slightest blemish or down grading of your credit. Keeping your credit cards in the back of a drawer and NOT canceling them is advisable.

Expect Congress to address these issues in Credit Card operations and policies in 2009 in an attempt to protect consumers a bit better… but high expectations for relief should be discouraged because of the powerful lobbying teams of Banks and other financial institutions. Result Consumers will and should pay down more of their debt and spend less thus creating Consumer slow down in spending in 2009.

Oil Prices will NOT stay low for long. Oil Producing Countries need the revenue for their own countries economies…. Demand may be down globally but the minimum necessary price is 45 dollars a barrel while countries like Venezuela, Iran, Russia etc require upwards of 70 dollars a barrel to keep their domestic programs going and to maintain their economies. Expect Oil close to or above 100 dollars a barrel by the end of 2009 based upon the needs of the Oil Producing Countries.

Job Loss and fear of Job Loss with hamper Consumer Spending even farther. This includes areas like housing and Auto sales as well

Credit availability for Housing will be tight for many years to come. Impeccable credit and a hefty down payment opf 20% or more, will be required as it was over a decade ago. The result will be a continuing deflation in Housing prices and no bottom expected until mid 2010. These expectations of losing money on a new home purchase will also keep many buyers on the sidelines.

Credit will also suffer because of continued required write-downs by Mortgage holders and those holding the Mortgage backed securities. Expect the Foreclosure rate to keep high thus flooding the market with additional homes. This credit problem will be further exacerbated by rises in Commercial Mortgage defaults. Particularly in Retail Commercial properties.

The measure of companies with retail locations in terms of profitability will be changed. MOST leases no Commercial Property like retail are triple net… meaning that the tenants are responsible to paying a pro rated share based upon occupancy of leased space for Utilities, Taxes and maintenance. The additional burden placed upon them buy the loss of other retailers coupled by decreasing sales will cause more stores to close. Currently the VACANCY rate in retail locations is at 8.2%. That will continue to rise throughout 2009.

Commercial Mortgages are often done with long amortization rates meaning 10 to 30 years mortgage payment rates, with a balloon payment (the full balance of the Loan) due after 5 years. As properties increased in value and occupancy rates were high and credit was readily available this was not a concern. Today, however, those criteria for refinancing can no longer be met by most mall operators or owners of other retail properties. Even the Commercial office space Market will be effected.

Loss of retail also usually has a negative effect in Commercial Office space… and even the A class properties are now feeing the potential problems growing. Expect an increase in “services” oriented companies across the USA and several hundred thousand jobs lost as a result, many of which do not and will not qualify for unemployment compensation to help them.

The stock markets will continue to act in a volatile and irrational way. Over reaction to perceived good news and bad news will move the market in triple digits and randomly. If you are brave and can wait 10 years or more for profits then now is the time to buy select companies that may recover faster as the economy bottoms and flattens in 2010.

Federal funds rate will not be increased for the first half of 2009, but may have a slight increase of 0.25 to 0.50 in the second half of 2009 and into 2010 as the dollar weakens and the need to strengthen the dollar increases.

The need to have safety for cash will continue to hold the Treasury Bonds yield down to hover at or near zero as banks are not considered safe enough and consumers are fearful.

Bank Write offs will continue and the biggest shocks to the market will be in Commercial backed mortgages as well as increased Credit Card default rate as climbing interest rates and lack of credit availability will force consumers into decisions that will not factor most creditors.

Housing prices will continue to decline throughout 2009. Lack of demand and increased inventories by those underwater on their mortgages and those foreclosed upon homes, and the lack of credit and the return to the requirements of old with 20 percent or more down and verifiable rations of income to mortgage payments as well as HIGH credit scores… all combined will be a continued drag in the housing market and will even affect places like New York City on 2009 through at least the first half of 1020.

Retirees will delay their retirement and the “equity” they thought they had in their homes and the devastation to their retirement funds will be so bad as to force more people to work longer and will contribute to the lack of available jobs for younger people.

Unemployment will rise to double digits…. Most likely to around 11 percent official and 17 percent unofficial Unemployed people will number more than 18 million people.  Currently the Unemployment are has gone over 7.2%. I expect that before we flatten out that number will grow to close to 11 percent. Currently the number of those unemployed is over 6 million…. but those numbers a skewed to those who qualified for unemployment and or are seeking employment actively.  The REAL number of unemployed is substantially higher if the number of those underemployed, working only part time, or who have given up looking for work are included. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose to 2.6 million in December and was up by 1.3 million in 2008.

Bankruptcies will hit all time highs both for individuals and Businesses.

The Auto Industry: This is the hardest to predict in some ways. BUT… Knowing that credit is hard to get to purchase an automobile, and that demand is down because individual consumers are feeling the economic pinch and are concerned about their declining home and retirement values, and compounded by job uncertainty will make any recover of the Auto Industry in general almost impossible in 2009. While most of us abhor the idea that the “Big Three” in Detroit may declare bankruptcy. I see no choice especially given the legacy costs of pensions and health care that hurts their price competitiveness. Premium prices for things like the Chevy VOLT or other fuel-efficient cars will not me tolerated by a price sensitive consumer market in these economic times. Therefore the demand that Auto Makes produce these cars, while admirable, is not productive to the automotive industry recovery at this time.

The result of the above will be continued declines and flattening of the Auto sales, which of course, contributes considerably to the GDP of the United States. A downward spiral that cannot be stopped without bankruptcy to protect those companies and jobs till the economy flattens out and hopefully and gradually raises enough to spur more automobile sales.  Bottom line…. expect one or more of the Detroit 3 to declare bankruptcy in 2009.

GDP Contraction 5 % or more: I hope this is self evident given what I have already written…. the ONLY way this will not happen in 2009 is if we devalue our dollar by printing more money…. but that results in hyper inflation and higher prices which would artificially make our GDP that much higher.

Federal budget deficit of 1 trillion and growing to possibly 2 TRILLION as the need for spending like the years of Roosevelt in the New Deal Era increases and as the concession to business for tax rates being the same or even lower taxes are made and the revenue for the US Government continues to decline from Lower profit, less payroll tax income and growing social programs to assist the impoverished. The NATIONAL DEBT will run higher than 12 trillion dollars UNLESS the government prints more money…. but that will further weaken the value of the US dollar. A delicate trade off that has to be dealt with in 2009.

LOWER corporate taxes and/or Capital Gains in a declining economy will NOT spur employment or Investment in Pant or equipment. The only people who will possibly benefit are those who own stocks in those companies. And even then the benefits will be minimal. Worse the Down side is lower revenue for the government in a time when spending must be increased to spur economic recovery.

Globally expect more instability in under-developed countries. Poverty, starvation and generally declining conditions in these countries will give rise to radical idealists who will create chaos and instability in those countries. Antagonistic behavior towards those industrialized countries that are seen as culprits in this economic crisis will be the most villianized. Terrorism abroad will increase in response to the frustration and need to blame someone increases.

Currency fluctuations will be as common as weather changes during 2009. 30-day moves can exceed 15 percent and daily moves may be as much as 5 percent. Thus this will make international business more volatile and difficult to conduct.

Parity with Euro and British Pound is possible given the currency fluctuation at this time only a 10 percent difference exists between the 2 currencies. Briton will continue to decline as the full effects of their new economy that was built on the financial sector and debt continues to play out.  France and Germany have yet to feel the real impact of what is happening globally and as such have been the prop to the Euro over the last year. The EU’s efforts to prop up Eastern European Counties with bailouts will have little effect on the full impact of the global recession. Ultimately the Euro will have to decline in value.

Weaken of the dollar … then strengthen and weakening. The Japanese Yen, the Euro, and the British Pound with fluctuate so much that any stability for the dollar will have to come from the USA itself. However that appears unlikely until the USA takes drastic steps to stem the bleeding and ultimately devalues the dollar.

EU predictions Italy and possibly Spain: I expect al least Italy to go back to the Lira and to try an peg the Lira to the Euro to allow it to re-enter the EU Euro denomination Currency in a few years. This will be necessary as the Italian economy and the EU regulations are in conflict and Italy cannot meet the EU demands for economic reform to satisfy the EU regulations. Spain faces the same situation.

France and German Social programs will be the downfall of these economies. With a global recession and decline in local economies the demand for these generous programs will go to an all time high and will send them into a deeper recession as they struggle to balance budgets and stem spending.

China will see continued decline in growth based upon the global economy. It is unclear if their domestic consumption can make up for the downturn. It may now feel the effect of the lack of a substantial Middle class and sustainable consumer base

India is just now feeling the effects, and as global outsourcing to India shrinks, and the allegations that the financial accounting is being doctored by some to keep showing profits surface. The “middle class” is mostly dependent on the global outsourcing in areas of IT and calling centers, which are declining rapidly. India will experience a recession that is severe and has potentially serious consequences on its economic stability.

It seems inevitable that the United States Government will be forced in 2009 or early 2010 to print more Dollars, to buy its own debt and to pay for spending programs as debt is not being bought by most companies or countries or even individuals. Hence a devaluation of the dollar… expect Euro and Pound to follow and a period of hyper inflation accompanied by higher interest rates when that happens.

I was reluctant to write this piece as I hoed to see more indications that things would improve…. However, that has not happened and the result is a significant delay in my predictions.

I hope I am just a pessimist.. however at this time I think I am more of a realist in how things are at this point in time. Things CAN change.. and my predictions can be totally wrong. But for that to happen requires political will and individual determination….And I see no signs of that at this time.

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with my assessments made her.. YOU must decide for your self what you need to do if this scenario does take place… or if it does not. These are things the way I see them and should NOT be taken as factual or advice to anyone.

Craig Eisele


March 31, 2008

Caterpillar Video on the Benefits of Road Construction in Africa

This may be a PR piece by Caterpillar for their benefit… nonetheless it is also a good PR piece for those who espouse the Highway building as necessary infrastructure for Africa. Madagascar may be an island but it is the same story on the Continent of Africa.

Click here: 

Caterpillar Madagascar Video

or cut and paste:

http://www.cat.com/cda/layout?m=8703&x=7&f=177263#/madagascar/

February 13, 2008

African Continent in the Dark

Continent in the Dark

The Monitor (Kampala)
NEWS
29 January 2008
Posted to the web 28 January 2008
Kampala
THE signing of a 92 million euro ($136 million) loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB), last week, to finance the construction of the 250 megawatt Bujagali hydro-electric power project is a shot in the arm for Uganda’s efforts to attract increased direct foreign investments.

This project, slated for completion in 2011, gives Uganda an edge over Africa’s economic powerhouse, South Africa, which is reeling from continued daily power cuts following generation and other operational problems at Eskom, the country’s power company. Eskom generates 95 per cent of the electricity used in South Africa.

(shortage of) power to neighbouring countries because of acute domestic shortages. Zimbabwe, which imports about 40 per cent of its electricity from South Africa, and Mozambique are the worst affected.

Eskom Enterprises has operations on the African continent with its head office being located in Johannesburg, South Africa, and other offices in Uganda, Nigeria and Mali.

Although the power cuts have affected the whole country, the commercial capital, Johannesburg, has been worst hit and Eskom says it would be foolhardy to attract major industrial projects until the situation has been resolved by the middle of next decade.

Eskom’s finance director, Bongani Nqwababa, was quoted by Business Day last week as saying “it is a question of supply and demand. It would be irresponsible now to aggressively pursue energy-intensive businesses.”

Investments

Though these may not be the kind of businesses that the Ugandan Investment Authority (UIA) is gunning for at the present stage of the country’s industrial development, there can be little doubt that there are plenty of other related investments that UIA can pick up as a result of the crisis in South Africa.

Small and Medium sized businesses (SMEs) have been hit hardest by the power cuts with dozens forced to shut and more closures expected if the crisis continues, says South Africa’s black business umbrella body, the National African Federated Chamber of Commerce and Industry (NAFCOC).

Nafcoc President Buhie Mthethwa says the body, which has 300000 members, will approach the government soon with requests for compensation for small enterprises which had lost perishable goods during the blackouts and cannot afford to buy generators to protect their remaining stocks.

Dozens of Nafcoc members, who represent black, coloured and Indian enterprises, are forced out of business by the chronic power outages which add to problems they already face from rising interest rates and restricted access to credit.

Growth in the economy has steadily accelerated since democracy was introduced in 1994 and the government wants to boost the pace to a sustainable rate of 6 per cent from 5.4 per cent in 2006 -a 25-year peak. It also aims to halve unemployment and poverty by 2014.

But now, there is mounting concern that power shortages will put more constraints on a growth rate hampered by a global slow-down as well as higher interest rates.

Credit Guarantee economist Luke Doig says the impact of the power cuts will lead to an escalation in liquidations and debt insolvencies. It will hit Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs) hard as they didn’t have many resources.

Jeff Osborne, the chief executive officer of Retail Motor Industry Organisation, says power shortages were hitting used car dealers, petrol stations, motor mechanics and panel beaters, which were mainly SME).

These are the same mid-term, long-term knock-on problems Uganda is attempting to avoid or mitigate with the construction of the Bujagali power project; problems that its detractors seem oblivious to.

According to an economic and financial evaluation study carried out three years ago by an independent consulting firm Power Planning Associates Limited (UK), Uganda’s electricity demand is expected to grow by 7.6 per cent per year on average between 2005 and 2020.

To help meet this demand, between 2006 and 2010, Uganda is expected to lease and commission 150 MW of oil fueled power generation as well as some generation from bagasse, a sugar-cane derivative used for renewable power generation, and from small hydro-power plants.

Private generation

Last week’s announcement that Electro- Maxx, an indigenous private power company, will start producing 10 megawatts (MW) of thermal power by June this year is part of the planned exercise to add capacity to Uganda’s power sector.

Electro-Maxx was granted a power generating licence from the Uganda Electricity Authority (ERA). ERA’s decision was communicated in a letter to the company dated January 21 following public hearings last December in Tororo where local leaders and the community gave the project the go ahead.

The $32 million project to be erected at the Tororo power substation will use Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO). And is expected to feed into the national grid.

A power purchase agreement has been executed between Electro-Maxx and the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company to supply power for 18 hours daily.

According to ERA, heavy-fuel oil is much cheaper than light diesel oil and Electro-Maxx will not require additional subsidies.

The government currently pays out billions of shillings in subsidizing expensive power to consumers.

Uganda’s current power demand is estimated at 380 MW while the maximum supply capacity stands at 251MW leaving a gap of about 129 MW.

“The 10 MW heavy-fuel project by Electro-Maxx is therefore highly needed to contribute towards reduction of the current deficit,” ERA said.

Currently, Uganda has a thermal installed capacity of 100 MW but it’s all generated through burning of diesel whose price has continued to rise.

Electro-Maxx chairman Patrick Bitature said the company would later apply to double or triple its capacity.

The plant was originally planned to be built in Mbarara but was shifted to Tororo to lower the cost of fuel transportation through Kenya.

Bujagali

The power supply generated from Bujagali would also enable 50-100 MW of expensive oil fueled thermal generation capacity to be retired. It is also expected that the commissioning of Bujagali in 2011 would help reduce the average cost of supply to end-users by up to 10 per cent compared to prevailing prices in constant terms.

The study found that the commissioning of Bujagali will have a small but positive impact on economic growth, balance of payments and the fiscal balance.

Uganda’s workforce is expected to double over the next 15 years, making the creation of jobs through expanded industry, tourism, and commercial services critical.

December 6, 2007

Surprise: Africa Needs $43 Billion to Restore Road Network

Actually this should not be a surprise to anyone. DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) which is the land mass size of ALL of Western Europe, is proported to have less than 500 Kilometers (300 miles) of PAVED Roads. Trans African Development Company (Not-For-Profit Company) has been attempting to establish a fund to raise 45 Billion US Dollars to rehabilitate the Sub-Saharan Trade Routes as a form of AID to Africa… This “Aid” is the type that Africa NEEDS to help sustain itself and the benefits are already well quantified!!

Craig Eisele

Here is the Article:

Continent Requires $43 Billion to Restore Road Network

Leadership (Abuja)

NEWS

3 November 2007

Posted to the web 5 November 2007

By Ofem Uket

African states, including Nigeria, will require about $43 billion to restore the state of roads in the region, considering the long neglect and low maintenance of the highways.Such roads will require immediate rehabilitation, and this restoration can be applied on such roads that are economically justifiable, and to prevent further deterioration, would require annual expenditure over the next 10 years of at least, one per cent of regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The economics of cost of poor road maintenance are borne by road users. Refusing or differing road maintenance increases the cost of road transport, and raises the net cost on the economy. Each naira differed or saved on road maintenance increases the vehicle operating cost.

One of the key concepts to reduce the low level of maintenance on roads is by commercialisation of roads, which of course, the federal government has embarked on through the bidding process on classified roads across the country to be given out on concession.

Another key element of surface transportation now and in the future, will be toll roads. That is, bringing roads into the market place, and putting them on a fee for service basis. That way, the government will spend less, and roads will be more attractive to use and will be restored to its lost glorious condition of the past.

For instance, Ghana installed an independent board to oversee the management of its road fund created in 1995, Tanzania in 1992, and Zambia in 1995, while Lesotho and Malawi are in the process of creating autonomous road funds and road boards.

Out of the 10.711 kilometres of road (motorway) networks in France, 7.186 kilometres are owned and operated by concessionaires for a toll of half a Franc per kilometer (6 cent/mile) , which is charged to cover the cost of financing, construction, operation, maintenance and general profit. And in other countries like Chile, Santiago and South America, they charge according to the distance covered, and the charges are structured in three levels.

Motorists in Nigeria are willing to pay for the use of roads, according to statistics on random sampling opinion, in so far as federal roads are put in a perfect motorable condition that will guarantee safety of lives and property, contrary to the death traps that exist on the highways presently.

There has to be a clear cut distinction on maintenance and rehabilitation of federal roads handled by government, and the ones managed by the private sector under the commercialisation exercise.

December 3, 2007

Undersea Cable in Africa… Good or Redundent?

Undersea Cable Buoys Continent’s Digital Prospects
Inter Press Service (Johannesburg)

NEWS
27 November 2007
Posted to the web 28 November 2007

By Abid Aslam
Washington, DC
Africa, the world’s least plugged-in continent, is moving closer to reliable telecommunications and affordable Internet access.

Construction of a 10,000-kilometre undersea fibre-optic cable connecting 21 East, Southern, and Central African countries to West Africa and Europe is to begin next month following the announcement Monday that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and others have come up with 70.7 million dollars in financing for the project.

“The project will transform the African telecommunication landscape and have a direct positive impact on business in East Africa,” Lars Thunell, chief executive at the World Bank’s private sector arm, said Monday.

In much of the developing world, digital communications have enabled school and college students to study in virtual libraries and to visit counterparts in other countries. Businesses have harnessed the Internet to reach offshore customers and suppliers and to obtain management know-how and language training, among other things. Farmers in remote regions have been able to check market prices for seed, fertiliser, and their produce — giving them new power over fee-seeking intermediaries.

In Africa, however, the Internet reaches only four percent of the population and users pay the planet’s highest fees to connect at the slowest speeds — when the continent’s notoriously erratic electricity supply and satellite connections permit. The situation is worst in the countries to be served by the new cable.

The East Africa Submarine Cable System, or EASSy, is intended to change all this. Once completed, it is expected to provide digital access to 250 million people, or one in four Africans.

Consumers along Africa’s east coast typically pay 200-300 dollars a month for Internet access, the IFC said. EASSy will cut the cost by two-thirds at the outset and the number of subscribers will triple, it said.

“Because the project gives open access to service providers, prices will fall further as volume and competition increase,” it added in a statement.

The cable will run along the floor of the western Indian Ocean and connect South Africa, Mozambique, Madagascar, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti and Sudan. At its southern end, it will join cables serving West Africa and Europe.

Thirteen adjoining countries will be linked to the system as additional networks are completed through a broader World Bank initiative. These countries are Botswana, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The IFC said it would provide 18.2 million dollars out of 70.7 million dollars in long-term loans sought by the EASSy consortium of companies. The rest would come from the African Development Bank, European Investment Bank, German development bank KfW, and French development bank AFD. The European Union also would provide some financing.

The international lenders are channeling their financing through the West Indian Ocean Cable Company Ltd., formed specifically for the project, the IFC said.

Most of the money for the 235-million-dollar project is to come from 25 private telecommunications operators that make up the 29-company EASSy consortium, the others being government entities. Of the private firms, 21 are African and these will be the cable’s main users, the IFC said.

French firm Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks is to lay the cable. Firms from Britain, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States also are taking part in the venture, according to business documents.

West Africa already enjoys relatively high-speed and low-cost connections to international telecommunications and the Internet through an existing undersea cable. Yet for the most part, according to government and industry sources, Internet usage rates have stalled in the single digits.

Power shortages are partly to blame. In September, the IFC and World Bank launched a separate effort to promote modern and affordable power using products not hostage to fossil fuels or the continent’s lamentable electricity grid.

Beyond infrastructure constraints, industry and development sources long have said that efforts to propagate information technology are stymied by low literacy rates and government curbs against citizens’ online access and activities.

Even those who make it to the information superhighway frequently find the Western Web sites beyond reach or almost impossible to navigate because these are rich in video and sound and cater mainly to users with not only broadband connections but also top-of-the-line processors in their computers.

November 30, 2007

Africa’s “Marshal Plan” (Editorial)

The Continent’s Marshal Plan
This Day (Lagos)

EDITORIAL
22 November 2007
Posted to the web 23 November 2007
Lagos
Painfully, the African continent has become the sick baby of the world, to which every other part must spare a thought by way of aids and grants. By the low development indices, Africa is understandably a leading member of the Third world community. But it ought not to be so. Given the abundant human and material resources available on the continent, Africa ought to be one of the leading lights of the world. But several intervening variables have conspired to stymied the growth of the continent. One such intervening variable being the slavery and colonialisation visited on the continent by Europe. This undoubtedly helped to get most African countries stunted. Indeed, several such African countries, although have since regained their independence, have not quite recovered from the deep lacerative effects of the invasions. As if that is not bad enough, Africa has also had a larger-than normal share of bad leaders, who are either acutely corrupt or super despotic. All of these have in no small ways helped to continually undermine the potentials of the African continent.

It is against this backdrop that we commend President Musa Yar’Adua’s call for a comprehensive Marshal plan for Africa. He had made the call at the just-concluded third African Forum in Germany. President Yar’Adua had lamented that the miserly aids and grants often given to African countries for developmental purposes are often too tokenistic to make any meaningful impact. As he put it, such aids “are usually too little, most times misdirected and generally do not make much of a difference.”

The truth is that Africa must learn to take its destiny in its hands by rising from the valley of dependence to a platform of responsibility. It must take charge of its own development challenges. One way of doing it effectively is for the continent to unite to draw a its own Marshal plan, akin to the European Recovery Programme employed by the United States of America. United States had with Europe designed a Marshal plan to reconstruct the European continent after the devastating World War 2.

The African continent must resolve from the ravages of war and despotic terrorism of its leader to work out modalities of regional integration and co-operation in a way that it can synergise its resources and launch out into the global arena with a bang.

We believe, and strongly too, that Africa surely needs an economic emergency scheme anchored on a Marshal plan. Given the fact of the human and material resources available, all that is thus germane is the harnessing of all its potentials for maximum impact. The Marshal plan, will in that sense, thus serve as a road map to the continental development plan of the region.

We call on the African leaders to immediately set in motion a process that will truly activate the practical modalities of the plan, through re-orientation and attitudinal revolution of themselves and their people. It is only when the African people themselves demonstrate a strong resolve to help themselves will they truly get out of the quagmire of underdevelopment.

One way of showing such attitudinal change will be to tackle the hydra-headed problem of corruption frontally and brutally. No donor nation or agency will be eager to assist a country where mere renovation of a government official’s residence for instance, can gulp as much as N628 million. Such high tempo graft will only repel nations willing to offer assistance. Well managed, under responsible leadership, powered by the right vision, Africa has all the potentials to be strong and independent, economically and politically. The Marshal plan can guaranty this.

In all, we believe in the Marshal plan, just as we urge African leaders to co-operate and look-inward in the task of growing the continent.

October 25, 2007

Rational for the rehabilitation of Sub-Saharan Trade Routes

the following link is a 59 page PDF report by David Wheeler,  Piet Buys, and Uwe Deichmann done for the World Bank and analysis of the Sub Saharan Road Infrastructure and resulting plan to rehabilitate the 108,000 plus KM of trade routes there.
http://www.cgdev.org/doc/event%20docs/Trans-Africa%20Network%20(Color%20Version).pdf

 

Rational for the rehabilitation of Sub-Saharan Trade Routes.

A Good .. but Older…. Paper on the State of African Infrastructure

The paper copied below is OLD… but sadly still paints a relatively close and poignant picture of the status of Infrastructure Development. It can be accessed directly in the web at: http://www.afdb.org/pls/portal/

We at Trans-African Development have a potential Solution to this dilemma that faces Africa… it is to build a BACKBONE of Infrastructure…. From Major Highways to Electrical transmission Facilities and transmission lines to Fiber Optic and Railroads… but we need the Cooperation of African Nations and Organizations to implement this . I will write more on this int he near future… but for now… this “picture” of African Infrastructure is very revealing.


ECONOMIC RESEARCH PAPERS NO. 46
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Infrastructure in Africa: The Record
By: Afeikhena Jerome
University of Ibadan, Nigeria


The views and interpretations in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of the African Development Bank.


INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA: THE RECORD

1. Introduction

In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in infrastructure development and Policy reform in developing economies, with much of the debate centering on efficiency
of use and an increased role for private sector participation in the provision of Infrastructure (Jimenez, 1995; Mody, 1996; Kerf and Smith, 1996; and World Bank,1994). The apparent interest emanates principally from the growing realization that human and physical infrastructure are critical elements for economic growth and poverty reduction. Infrastructure plays a pointed, often decisive-role in determining the overall
productivity and development of a country’s economy, as well as the quality of life of its citizens.

A broader source of interest, however, derives from the generally poor performance of state-owned monopolies, combined with the rapid globalization of the world economies, which has brought into sharp focus the economic costs of inadequate infrastructure and prompted a growing number of developing countries to seek new initiates in promoting competition, private entry and foreign interest in the provision of  Infrastructure.

The term ‘infrastructure’ was coined during the Second World War by military strategists to indicate wide-ranging elements of war logistics. Thereafter, development Economists began to use the term interchangeably with ‘overhead capital’ considered to include: those services without which primary, secondary and tertiary production activities cannot function. In its widest sense, it includes all public services from law and order through education and public health to transportation, communication, power and water supply as well as such agricultural overhead capital as irrigation and drainage systems (Hirschman, 1958: 83).

There is no consensus in the literature on a common definition of infrastructure. What remains indisputable, however, is that is that they share some common characteristics which have hitherto been used to justify state involvement in their provision and financing. These characteristics include scale economies in production, consumption externalities and non-excludability. They are equally not generally tradeable.

Broadly defined, infrastructure refers to all basic inputs into and requirements for the proper functioning of the economy. They are usually grouped into two. The first category is social infrastructure, such as education and health which facilitate the supply if skilled and healthy personnel to manage and operate other resources. They also enhance the economic, political and social empowerment of the populace, with the
attendant positive effects on poverty alleviation and efficient use of national resources.


The second category is often referred to as economic infrastructure. Mody (1997) defines this category of infrastructure as the facilities that provide society with the services necessary to conduct daily life and to engage in productive activities. These include power, transportation, telecommunications, water, sanitation and safe water disposal, among other things.

This report is devoted to the study of the complementary physical infrastructure, comprising telecommunications, power, transport (roads, railways, ports and airports), water supply, and sewerage.

Infrastructure has a pervasive influence on the whole economy.
Telecommunications, electricity and water are used in the production process of virtually every sector of an economy, while transportation is necessary for the distribution of
commodities. The quantity and quality of these services are therefore an important determinant of private sector productivity and output. In fact, there is a strong association
between the availability of certain infrastructure -telecommunications (in particular), power, surfaced roads and safe water – and per capita GDP2. The relationship involves  both the supply side, in terms of the contribution of infrastructure to the generation of higher GDP, and the demand side, as higher incomes in turn generate higher demands for infrastructure services. Infrastructure thus makes an important contribution to expanding output.

Africa trails the rest of the world, both in the extent and quality of infrastructure. Notwithstanding the large amount of scarce economic resources absorbed in the development of infrastructure in Africa, there is clear evidence that the provision of infrastructure has been much below standard both in terms of quantity and quality in relative and absolute terms. Infrastructure bottlenecks continue to exist, particularly in the management of current stock.

Traditionally, infrastructure services have been viewed as public goods and the primary responsibilities for their provision have been entrusted to the government-owned
`natural monopolies’. Consequently, these sectors have become inextricably entangled with the public sector that dominated it. While the performance of government-owned
providers of infrastructure, vary from one country to another, their overall performance in Africa has been very poor. The sector is characterized by operational inefficiency, lack of technological dynamism and poor service to consumers. In addition to their inadequacy, the provision of infrastructural services in most African countries is characterized by high prices compared with per capita incomes and long waiting time (several years in some countries) between the time of application for services and actual connection.

The cost of waste, in terms of forgone economic growth and lost opportunities for poverty reduction and environmental improvements, are unimaginably high. Poor infrastructure is a major obstacle to the region’s economic growth, and adversely affectsthe living standards of its people. Inadequate infrastructure adversely impacts on health, education and the capacity for effective governance as well as on the ability of industries to compete in international markets. Most evaluations of structural adjustment programmes in Africa point to deficiencies in infrastructure as a major cause of poor
supply response in economies under reform (Ghura and Hadjimichael, 1996).

The provision of efficient infrastructure is important for the development of the continent particularly in view of the fact that many of its countries are landlocked. As shown in recent literature on the economics of geography, nearly all landlocked countries in the world are poor, except a handful in Western Europe that are closely integrated into the EC via an efficient infrastructure which facilitates low-cost trade.

This chapter takes stock of the state of infrastructure in Africa, investigates more deeply the root causes of the present unsatisfactory outcomes and explores the strategies and policies that can be instituted to improve infrastructure delivery in the pursuit of the overarching objectives of private-sector-led growth and poverty reduction. Accordingly, the paper is divided into four sections. The database on infrastructure in Africa is presented in section 2 while the record of infrastructure service is the focus of section 3.
An appraisal of the causal factors in the dismal performance is conducted in section 4.

2. Data on Infrastructure in Africa

Data on the different types of infrastructure in Africa are sketchy and difficult to find in one publication. An extensive database of physical infrastructure stock for a cross-section
of 102 countries have been compiled and presented in the Appendix. The database has been compiled for 53 African countries by region according to ADB classification. To
allow for comparison, similar data is presented for 17 countries in Latin America, 8 countries in South East Asia and 24 OECD countries. The database comprises six measures:

. Population, GNP per capita and percentage of population with access to safe water and sanitation;

. Kilometres of paved roads;

. Kilometres of railway lines;

. Statistics on the power sector;

. Telecommunication statistics; and

. Information technology.

Apart from physical stocks, the database also provides some measures of the quality of infrastructure.

White It is imperative to sound a note of caution on these global statistics given their comparative basis, it should be noted, however, that the data provides a rough, albeit, useful
basis for analyzing the development of infrastructure on a comparative global and regional basis. The data reveals a strong association between infrastructure capacity and level of development. Countries with lower income level are associated with lower levels of infrastructure capacity and service provision. It should be borne in mind that the
performance of most African countries in all the indicators is quite dismal.

3. The Record of Infrastructure in Africa

It is crucial to examine in greater details the situation in the major infrastructure sub-sectors with a view to highlighting the peculiarities of each sub-sector. For each type of infrastructure , the section examines the state of the available networks, tariffs charged, supply and demand patterns, service quality; industry bottlenecks, and environmental
consideration.

3.1 Telecommunications

Telecommunications infrastructure lies at the heart of the information economy. Countries lacking modern telecommunications system cannot compete effectively in the
global economy. The telecommunications industry in Africa has made limited progress despite concerted efforts and programs aimed at modernizing and expanding the sub-sector.

3.1.1 Networks

Despite the giant strides which a number of African countries have taken in reforming the telecommunications sub-sector in recent years, telecommunication coverage in Africa is amongst the lowest in the world. There are more telephones in Brazil than the whole of Africa. While Brazil has 15,105.9 main telephone lines, Africa has only 13, 695.1 main telephone lines. Africa accounts for only two per cent of telephone main telephone lines globally as shown in chart 1. Low network densities, long waiting
Source : International Telecommunication Union.

Chart 1: Main telephone lines

Africa2%
America32%
Asia28%
Europe36%
Oceania2%
times for access to services, and clear willingness of some users to pay for access to the service illustrate the significant shortage of telecommunications services in the region.

The most common measure of telecommunications access is teledensity or the number of main telephone lines per 100 inhabitants. In 1996, teledensity varied from 0.08 in
Democratic Republic of Congo to 34.01 in Reunion. Africa averages 1.85 compared to 30.38 in the Americas, 6.02 in Asia, 30.60 in Europe and 40.39 in Oceania.

There are substantial differences among the African sub-regions, with four countries currently in the forefront; namely, Reunion 34.01, Seychellis 19.51, Mauritius 16.21 and
South Africa 10.2 . The laggards are sub -Saharan African countries with an average teledensity of 0.52. As many as 34 countries in Africa still have a teledensity of less than 1. These differences among countries are associated in part with variations in per capita GDP  In part, GDP per capita may serve as an indicator of the extent of a country’s rural population, which tended to receive fewer infrastructure services than urban areas did. It may also reflect the affordability of services. However, a nation’s teledensity is usually quoted as an average thus masking regional variability. For example, the distribution of telephone networks in South Africa presents striking internal contrasts. The average teledensity in South Africa is 10.05, but on a provisional level, this ranges between 22 in Gauteng (the region around Johannesburg and Pretoria) and 2 in the Northern pronvince.

The distribution of telecommunications services is biased in most African countries in favour of the urban areas, which account for over 80 per cent of the services, while the
rural areas, where over 80 per cent of the population reside, enjoy 20 per cent of the service.
About 72.9 per cent of telecommunications mainlines were in urban areas in 1995 compared to 27.1 per cent in rural areas. Two countries, however, had most of their telephone mainlines located in rural areas. These are Sao-Tome and Principe (87.0 percent) and Central African Rep. (57.0 per cent).

In terms of quality, networks are burdened with a high percentage of outmoded equipment and high fault rates. The information on faults per main lines, a standard measure of service quality, indicates that the average faults per 100 main lines for the region in 1996 was 78.1 compared with an average rate of 8.9 for America, 19.9 for Europe, 43.7 for Asia and 47.8 for Oceania. The recorded fault rates in the region,
however, range widely- from 1.0 (Eritrea) to 937.5(Guinea).

The most effective route to increasing service quality is the installation of digital exchanges. African countries are striving to modernize their systems – albeit at great cost – in order to remain plugged into the global network. Many telecommunications authorities in Africa, especially in those countries undergoing reforms are installing digital technologies and costly equipment in order to become competitive. In the absence of local manufactures, African countries are dependent on industries outside the region for the purchase of telecommunications equipment and spare parts. Such imports are generally made on a non- selective basis of ‘ready-made’ packages with little room for adaptation to local needs through local enterprise and know-how. Consequently, telecommunications services in Africa do not have the usual multiplier effects (via research and development, local manufacturing, services and employment) as they do in other regions of the world.

Table 1:

Comparative Statistics on Telecommunications Indicators in Africa and the Rest of
the World (1996)

SEE THE ORIGINAL REPORT WITH LINK AT TOP TO VIEW CHARTS AND DATA

i HAVE DEBUGGED ONLY UP TO HERE FOR THE READERS CONVENIENCE IN CHANGING FORMATING… PLEASE GO TO THE LINK ABOVE TO READ THIS 57 PAGE PDF FILE WITH GRAPHIC CHARTS.

Source: International Telecommunication Union

3.1.2 Supply and Demand Patterns

Comparative Telecommunications Statistics for
Africa and the rest of the WorldPer 100 inhabitantMain lines per employeeSatisfied demand (%) 1996Fault per 100 machines peryear

Source: International Telecommunication Union.

Large waiting lists are evident in several African countries, but the demand for telephone connections is in all likelihood considerably higher. A sizable latent demand Lies concealed since prospective users do not even register on waiting lists until there is a realistic chance of receiving a telephone connection. The overall average expected waiting time for services in Africa for 1996 was 3.5 years, the highest in the world, compared with 0.3 in America, 0.7 in Asia and 2.4 in Europe as shown in chart 3. Ten countries recorded a waiting time greater than 10 years. These are Algeria, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Gambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Sao Tome & Principe, Sierra Leone and Tanzania. With such long waiting times in African economies, there may well be a significant number of discouraged potential subscribers who have not yet joined the
queue for services.

Development of cellular networks in African economies provides one example of customers’ willingness to pay for quick access to reliable services. This willingness is particularly true of businesses and high-income households. While the cellular network penetration rates are still comparatively small, (7.9 per cent of total telephone subscribers in 1996 ranging between 1.1 in Kenya and 18.3 in South Africa), the growth rates in the number of subscribers are considerable in some countries. This level of demand has been achieved despite the fact that charges for cellular services are substantially above those for fixed services in the region and those for cellular services in the EU. Surveys of business users in the region confirm this willingness to pay
for quick access to reliable telecommunications services.4

The introduction of competition has been most notable in mobile cellular and other value-added services, with almost half of the Africa countries allowing more than one provider in these areas. In the majority of markets where cellular mobile services are now provided, private capital has been introduced in the form of joint ventures with state-owned enterprises or stand-alone private ventures

3.1.3 TARIFFS

The structure of tariffs falls relatively heavily on businesses and more lightly on households, but the overall level remains low in most countries. In several African countries, there is no clear practice of pricing services, hence rough and ready norms for billing are adopted. Call waiting and forwarding for residential customers remains largely the domain of dominant local providers.

While detailed data on long-distance and international tariffs are not available, average monthly subscription and installation charges for households and businesses
provide some indication of tariff levels and structures. Table 2 presents average monthly subscription charges and connection rates for both household and business consumers by regions in the world. A comparison across these regions reveals that telecommunications tariff in Africa is the lowest in the world relative to both the global average and other
regions in the world. The relatively low levels of tariffs in much of the region limit the extent to which internal cash flows and private finance can be raised for new investments.
Most countries, characterized by underinvestment and low network growth, are unlikely to break out without reform of the tariff structure. As a rule, those countries at more
advanced stages of development have adjusted tariff structures to allow for more balanced charges between households and businesses and have raised the overall level of
tariffs. The need for investment in this sector to expand capacity and improve service quality is substantial. The necessary expansion in networks will not be achieved without
recourse to private finance. However, unlocking this finance will require a commercial approach to telecommunications and credible reform of tariff structures.

Table 2:

Telephone Tariffs in Africa and Other Regions in 1996 (US$)

3.1.4 Reform Activities the Sector

The telecommunications sector in Africa faces a challenging future given the number of internal and international constraints confronting telecommunications administration, and the demand for value-added services by increasingly sophisticated consumers. Many African countries are already committed to reforms in the field of telecommunications,
including promotion of private sector participation. In the past few years, a domino effect has occurred in Africa’s Telecommunications sector resulting in a flurry of reform
activities which put the continent at par with the developments in other regions. Some of the major reforms being carried out include creation of a regulatory environment to accommodate private companies, institution of well-defined tariff regimes, privatization of state-owned telecommunications operations; and licensing independent telephone companies to provide value added services.

Reform efforts across the region focused initially upon the separation of the telecommunications and postal operations and, subsequently, upon the development of separate regulatory agencies. By 1998, 27 countries in Africa had separated their postal and telecommunications operations, and 30 countries had corporatized the primary operator.

In the regulatory sphere, 18 countries across Africa had undertaken the establishment of a separate regulatory agency by 1998. However, most telecommunications regulatory agencies so far created in Africa have limited powers -the
sector ministry retain the authority to issue directives to the regulator, appoint the heads of the agency, and control the agency’s funding. In Uganda, for example, the ministry in
charge of telecommunications is also responsible for tariff approval and the establishment of licence fees, while in Namibia, the operator is responsible for numbering, tariffs and interconnection rates. In many instances, the establishment of the regulatory agency has occurred in tandem with the privatisation process. In other countries, the introduction of
a regulator has occurred prior to the initiation of liberalization and privatisation plans, such as in Botswana, Mauritius, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia.

Privatisation of state-owned national carriers in Africa began in 1989 with the sale of the majority of shares in Guinea-Telecom in Guinea-Bissau, and STP/CST of Sao
Tome and Principe in the same year. Between 1989 and 1997, close to 25 per cent partially privatised their state-owned telecommunications operator. In addition, six more countries have initiated, or announced, plan to sell equity stake in their state-owned telecommunication operator to private investors. However, competition in nation-wide basic services is allowed in just two markets, Ghana and Uganda, where second national operator licenses have been issued.

The cumulative effect of these reforms is a substantial increase in telecommunications infrastructure. In 1996, Africa recorded its highest annual growth rate of 10 per cent in telephone main lines. The highest growth rates were recorded by Botswana, the Gambia, Cape Verde and Mauritius. North African countries, however, recorded marginal decline.

3.2 Internet Access
Internet is today one of the most dynamic telecommunication markets in Africa in spite of the fact that the region remains behind the rest of the world in informatics and information
technology, accounting for less than 1 per cent of global spending in the sub-sector.
Over the past five years, the number of African countries with access to the internet has risen dramatically. It was first introduced to Africa through a range of initiatives by national,
international and non-governmental organizations, Internet is now clearly becoming a commercial undertaking with increasing private investment. Most of the countries (47 of the 54 nations) in the region have developed some form of Internet access in capital cities, either through local dialup, store and forward e-mail with a gateway to the internet, or through a full leased-line service. About 44 countries and territories have achieved full Internet public access services at least in capital cities. There are only five countries- Comoros, the Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Libya and Somalia that do not have plans for full internet assess.

3.2.1 Network

The key indicators of internet development are: (1) the number of host computers, (2) the number of internet service providers (ISPs) and (3) the number of users.

a. Internet host computers: In 1997, there were 129,326 internet host computers in Africa, of which 122,025 were in South Africa, 3,310 in North Africa and 3, 991 in Sub-
Saharan Africa. The density of internet hosts was 28.16 hosts per 10,000 people in South Africa, 0.25 in North Africa and 0.07 in Sub-Saharan Africa. The average for Africa was
1.70.

b. Internet Service Providers (ISPs): About half of the countries in Africa allow competition and have more than one ISP. Of the 300 or so ISPs in the region, around 200
offer full internet services. South Africa has the highest concentration of ISPs with nearly 80
service providers.

c. Internet Users: In 1997, there were 896,120 Internet users on the continent of Africa, in addition to 800,000 in South Africa. This is equivalent to approximately six users for each
host computer. The number of users averages about one user per 5,000 people (excluding South Africa with a rate of one to 65 people), compared to a global figure of one internet
user per 45 people; or one per 6 in Europe and North America.

3.2.2 Tariffs

The high price of internet connections and personal computer (PCs) relative to income is a major inhibiting factor to a wider use of internet in Africa.. Estimated PCs per 100 inhabitants in 1996 was just 0.66 compared with 15.87 in America, 9.56 in Europe and 30.31 in Oceania. Considering the lower incomes of most African countries, it is unrealistic to expect widespread Internet usage on the continent. As the internet market in Africa becomes increasingly liberalized, and market forces take firmer root, prices will be driven lower owing to increasing competition among ISPs, the privatisation of state-owned telecommunications corporations, and the liberalization of domestic telephone markets.

3.2.3 Bottlenecks

Internet use in Africa is limited. The basic obstacles in the path of rapid Internet growth are the lack of telecommunication infrastructure, and the relatively high hardware and transmission costs. Although many countries have taken major steps to improve their infrastructure, great variation still remains between regions and countries; rural areas, where 70-80 per cent of the population resides, are largely uncovered by telephone service.
International internet bandwidth is lacking because international leased lines are costly and crowded, and peering between ISPs is limited. Proposals, such as the Africa One and SAFE- undersea fibre-optic cables, or wireless technologies including WLL, VSAT, HF radio and GMPCS systems, or stratospheric Helium supported balloons promise to extend internet services to both urban and rural areas. Hardware is much more expensive in Africa relative to many other parts of the world due to high import tariffs and little price competition.

An increasing number of countries are allowing internet service provider (ISP) competition, even though more than ten countries still hold monopoly control. PTOs have
assumed a monopoly position especially in countries where the Public Telecommunications Operator (PTO) established the international internet backbone with some exceptions, such
as South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia. Foreign internet service providers are increasingly entering into Africa and are expected to gain market share from the local companies. Open entry for ISPs, however, is not enough to ensure rapid Internet growth. An appropriate, “Internet-friendly” regulatory framework is also important to achieve effective
entry, survival and growth of ISPs. High license fees, for example, can limit the entry of ISPs.

3.3 Transport

Transport constitutes an important sector for the enhancement of economic growth and the socio-economic integration of the African region, particularly the promotion of intra- and extra-African trade. However, despite the efforts made in the past five decades to develop the transport sector in Africa, it has remained inadequate and ineffective. The general lack of repairs and maintenance in infrastructure has led to further deterioration in the sector in recent years, and has, as well, increased the magnitude of its operational problems and costs. The environmental implications of transport policies and projects also received low priority.

However, despite the difficult environment of high operating costs and low capacity utilization, the various sub-sectors of transport have shown some remarkable resilience.

3.3.1 Roads

In Africa, road transport is the most widely used means of transportation. The fragmentary
nature of the railway system and the limitations imposed on the scope of inland water
transport by geographical factors are such that the transport of people and goods by rail and
inland waterways has to be supplemented usually by road transport over long distances.

3.3.1.1 Road Network

An accurate assessment of the development of the road networks in African countries is made difficult by the lack of reliable statistical information and the compelling necessity to employ, for analytical purposes, surrogate indicators, such as aggregate lengths, classified according to operating conditions, instead of such standard indices as ton-kilometre or passenger/ kilometre.

Africa had approximately 311,184 kilometers of paved roads in 1991 (see Table A2), with half of them in poor conditions. Chart 4 indicates that only 24.2 percent of total road network in Africa were paved in 1996 albeit with considerable regional diversity. 57.4 percent of the roads in North Africa were paved compared to 25 percent in South Africa and 10.2 percent in Central Africa. Road densities per km2 are generally much lower than those of Asia and Latin America. Road construction and maintenance standards vary greatly in
Africa: few countries are able to construct and maintain trunk-road systems to stipulated requirements and standards according to volume and weight of traffic. Road building has
traditionally been given more priority than road maintenance in most African countries, with scant attention to the imperatives of recurrent costs and road management once a road has been constructed. Besides, as the road networks expands, the institutional and financial burden has tended to increase much more rapidly than the national budget could cater for, especially in times of socio-economic crisis.

Another important dimension to the quality of infrastructure is maintenance and renewal. Lack of maintenance has left over 50 per cent of the paved roads in poor conditions. Over 80 per cent of the unpaved main roads in Africa would be considered just fair. The case of rural feeder roads is even worse; up to 85 per cent are estimated to be currently in poor conditions.

The constructing of international road networks on a sub-regional basis in Africa has received much greater attention. However, a real regional African road system does not as yet exist; what exists, instead, is a large number of separate national road networks that are ineffectively coordinated, and are at best a series of ad hoc inter-country road links and connection.

3.3.1.2 Demand and Supply Pattern

National road networks in Africa have not kept pace with the growing demand: kilometre lengths are limited and their standards of construction often low. The existence of
inadequate and poorly maintained rural and feeder roads connecting villages and farming areas with each other, and to market centres is a major gap in rural transport in most
countries. And few cities have been able to keep pace with road network needs. As agriculture and industry expand, and as national and subregional economies develop, existing road networks will require tremendous extensions and improvements in quality. In particular, road links between nations will have to be strengthened to meet large scale
demand for intra-and inter-subregional goods traffic; all of this require heavy capital investment and expenditure on roads in many African countries.

3.3.2 Rail

Railways in Africa are fragmented, and can hardly be described as a system since the railways run from the interior to sea ports, a reflection of their antecedent as a transport
system designed for external trade purposes.

3.3.2.1 Available Network

The aggregate network of African railways is estimated at 73,000 route kilometres, of which South Africa alone accounts for some 22,500 km. Eleven countries namely; Burundi,
Central Africa Republic, Chad, Cape Verde, Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Somalia, the Gambia, Guinea Bissau and Libya have no railway system. With the exception of North Africa, railways in Africa generally have a low level of traffic. Most of the lines are of light rail, and are unsuited for fast and heavy traffic. Moreover, there is general deterioration due to maintenance problems.

The national railway networks in Africa are mostly independent of each other and, with the exception of Eastern and Southern African railways, unconnected among themselves. All the networks in Africa were built at the end of the nineteenth century or the beginning of the twentieth century, with different technical characters, gauges, couplings, brake systems, buffers, etc. The only exceptions are, Tazara, the Trans-Gabonese, the Trans-Cameroonian and the mining lines. The 1.067 m gauge predominates, especially in sub-
Saharan Africa, whereas the 1.435 m gauge accounts for 76.1 per cent of the total kilometrage in North Africa.. Upgrading existing railway lines would involve major investments in track realignment, resignalling, safety systems and rolling stock..

3.3.2.2 Demand and Supply pattern

Almost all the railways in Africa enjoyed monopoly or near-monopoly status at inception, especially for long- and medium- distance transport of goods and peoples. With the spectacular development of road transport and to a lesser extent, air transport, in the 1970s, railways have, however, faced increased competition in the transport market, to
which they have not always been able to positively respond and adapt.

3.3.2.3 Tariffs

Railway tariff has stagnated or declined in recent years, and measures of operational efficiency have shown little improvement. For example, locomotive availability remained
generally low at around 50 percent, although both Uganda and Zimbabwe have improved performance in response to restructuring plans. Most railway authorities in Africa have not pursued sustainable tariff policies. Being public or semi-public enterprises, they were not always profit-oriented or cost- conscious in their operation, limiting their ability to maintain the existing networks, let alone upgrade or expand them. Whenever they made profits, they were required to pass them to the users in the form of reduced tariff rates. The tariff basis was the same throughout the network, varying only with distance.

Freight rates by rail in Africa are on average about twice as high as those in Asia and one and half times those in Latin America. But, at the same time, rail operations run at a
deficit. A number of reform programs are under way. These include increased managerial autonomy and sub-contracting more services to the private sector. Some have sub-contracted part, or all, track maintenance to the private sector (Cameroon, Gabon, Nigeria and Senegal) and Senegal has also sub-contracted cleaning of rolling stick, maintenance of wagons, catering and parcels traffic. The broadest private sector initiative involves re-unifying the railways of Cote d’ Ivoire and Burkina Faso, with a view to operating them
under a concession agreement with the private sector.

3.3.3 Airports

Air transport network in Africa is still relatively underdeveloped. All countries in the region have at least one international airport as well as several smaller ones. Few of them are capable of handling large amount of traffic. Less than 50 per cent of the 5,304 potential air links among the countries in the region are actually operational or being actively exploited at present. The countries with the highest number of airports are Egypt (17 airports) and Nigeria (15 Airports). Most of the airports lack modern equipment and infrastructure. They are characterized by deteriorating runways, and obsolete traffic control equipment. Much of
the infrastructure required for ancillary activities, such as customs and immigration, air cargo, catering, baggage handing and connecting surface transportation, is lacking compared
with market needs. For example, operational and safety shortcoming that plague Nigeria’s international airports have given them the reputation of being among the worst in the World.

Almost every African country own at least one airline although some of them are being privatized in recent times. However, Air Afrique is a regional airline, jointly owned
by ten countries. The privatized airlines include Kenya Airways incidentally the first airline to be privatized in Africa, Royal Air Maroc and Air Tunisia both of which are
partially privatized. Nigeria, however, adopted the liberalisation of the domestic aviation industry resulting in the licencing of 22 private carriers, of which 14 offer scheduled
passenger service, 7 carry cargo and the balance provide charter fights.

Only Cote d’ Ivoire is currently actively reforming its airports with the ceding of the management of Abidjan’s international airport to a French international consortium, Aeria, which has pledged to spend CFA 14 billion upgrading the airport.

3.3.3.1 Tariffs

The airlines in Africa suffer from high operational costs compared with their counterparts world-wide, including other developing regions; they lack proper maintenance facilities
locally and their tariffs are generally uncompetitive in the absence of subsidies. With the growth of mega-airlines in many regions of the world, the African airlines, being mostly
small and poorly equipped, are unable to compete in the international market. And the only hope for survival for most of them lies in mergers with bigger and more competitive
carriers.

.3.3.3 Demand and Supply Pattern

Air services are restricted by low demand in several countries. Apart from Air Mauritius which accounted for about 50 per cent of total persenger traffic in 1997, the share of African
airlines in international traffic is very low, owing in part to a reputation of poor services and reliability. For example, the share of Air Egypt in international traffic is only 25 per cent at
most, despite fare reductions in recent times.

3.3.4 Sea Ports

Maritime transport is extremely important to African countries due to the nature of its operations, and the high proportion of traded goods transported by sea. However, the poor quality of port services and infrastructure in Africa, and the low level of trade volumes are some of the major limitations on the growth of this sub-sector. Port productivity is, on average, about a third of international norm due to poor management, excessive bureaucracy, and inadequate as well as unreliable of equipment. Delays in clearing goods are frequently a problem. Most ports are in need of modern, better managed facilities to serve traffic for which sea transport has a significant cost advantage over surface transport, such as dry and liquid bulk cargoes or containerized cargo. The port of Mombassa, for instance, has only two cranes one of which is frequently out of order. The main port of Ghana was recently rehabilitated and expanded but suffers from mostly human inefficiencies. Manufacturers habitually post employees in the port for several days on end to make sure that the goods move in and out of the port on time. There is generally a need for upgrading of existing ports in Africa.

Less than two per cent of the African merchant fleet capacity are container ships; the majority being conventional cargo ships. The shipping lines that principally service long-
distance sea routes consider most of Africa’s coastal traffic as mere subsidiary to their traditional overseas activities.

3.3.4.2 Tariff

Ocean freight charges in Africa are competitive. The impression that ocean freight charges from Africa are prohibitively high is not supported by the facts. Empirical evidence provided by Biggs, et al. (1994) and presented in Table 7 on freight and port charges from five African countries to the port of New York/Newark and a comparison with similar charges from Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, two countries in East Asia, indicate that freight charges generally reflect their relative distances to the port of destination and appear to give West African countries a slight competitive advantage. However, port charges in the principal ports in Africa are higher than the comparable charges in the two Asian ports.
Consequently, when freight and port charges are added up, the costs of transportation from some ports in Africa may actually be higher than from those ports in East Asia. Interviews with a number of large shipping agents indicate that the frequency of sailing from the principal African ports to New York/Newark is also not a constraining element.

3.4 Electricity

3.4.1 Available Network

Total electricity generation in 1994 was 350,000 Gigawatt-hours. The generation mix is dominated by fossil fuel generating plants which account for 81 percent of total
electricity generation, with hydro accounting for just 15 per cent. A small fraction of available hydro resources is utilized in Africa, with 64.4 percent of the exploitable hydro capacity located in East and Southern Africa, 34.2 percent in West Africa and 1.2 percent in North Africa. This is mainly due to shortfalls in water-flow associated with climate change in some countries, low demand in countries endowed with immense hydro resources, and potential transmission losses associated with long distance transmission from countries endowed with immense hydro resources to energy deficient
countries and regions. Oil-based generation is more uniformly distributed in Africa while coal-based generation feature prominently in the southern African countries of South

Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Mozambique; and in Morocco in North Africa and Niger in West Africa. Gas fuelled plants are of increasing importance in Algeria, Nigeria
Tunisia. Nuclear and geothermal plants are relatively unimportant at 2.7 and 0.1 per cent respectively. Kenya remains the only country exploiting its geothermal resources, though progress in this direction remains lack-lustre.

In terms of regional distribution, North Africa accounts for about one third of Africa’s electricity production based largely on burning oil supported by coal and natural gas. West Africa’s share of 9 per cent is based on a mixture of hydro, oil and gas. Central Africa’s share of 4 per cent is dominated by hydro and East Africa’s share of 3 per cent consists of s mixture of oil and hydro. Southern Africa produces the largest share of Africa’s electricity production-about-55 per cent which is dominated by hydro and coal-burning generating plants.

The region’s generation, transmission and distribution systems tend to be old and inefficient, resulting in often substantial losses of generated energy, as much as 40
percent in the case of Uganda. These system losses have further limited the amount of energy available for production and consumption. Furthermore, in many countries consumers have experienced frequent power outages as well as voltage fluctuations, which damage electronic equipment and motors. This unreliability has forced many enterprises in the region to buy and install their own generators, thus raising their
overhead costs.

Self-provision of electricity is common across the region. In Uganda, most large customers maintain stand-by diesel generators.5 In Guinea, between 1983-1992 the private sector installed for its own use some 70 MW of power generation, and in 1993 produced some 109 GWH of electricity, almost as much as the national electric utility6

3.4.2 Demand and Supply Pattern

Africa’s state-owned energy sector in the early 1990s typifies some of the worst failings of the African public monopoly model. While deficiencies in the public enterprises model are
hardly unique to Africa, its weak administrative capacity and legacy of political instability exacerbate the problem.

Countries in the region have one state-owned company performing the four separable activities of generation, transmission, distribution and supply. Only a few countries, such asGhana, have separate companies responsible for generation and transmission, and distribution. Private sector participation in the power sector, although not legally
prohibited, is negligible in most countries in the region. Available data on the structures of power sectors in the region and the policies of different governments suggest that the
pattern of vertically integrated monopoly enterprises with little or no autonomy from government to operate in a commercial manner is typical of Africa. For example, the utility SONEL in Cameroon is approximately 93 percent state-owned, with a board of directors appointed by the government’ UEB in Uganda handles generation, transmission and distribution, and also regulates itself; and NEPA in Nigeria is a state monopoly, and government controls all procurements and foreign exchange transactions. Almost all
countries in the region have opted for an electric utility industry that is an arm of government and generally vertically integrated.

Table 8 presents two performance indicators for selected countries in the region: transmission and distribution losses and rate of return on net fixed asset. Countries perform
differently according to these indicators. Uganda has, for instance, transmission and distribution losses of 38 percent and zero rate of return on net fixed asset, while Ghana has
lower transmission and distribution losses (17.8 percent) and a higher rate of return on net fixed asset (6 per cent) than Uganda. Such differences are also observed when countries in
the region are compared with some countries in other regions of the world (Table 8).
Comparing the performance of the power sectors in most of these SSA countries with that of Chile, a developing country which has reformed its power sector, the latter outperforms
most of the former (at least according to the two indicators that we cite in Table 8). (The only exception is South Africa1).

Most of these countries have rates of return on net fixed asset and debt service coverage that are very low. For instance Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Guinea obtained negative returns in the range of minus 6.2 to 16 percent (Gutierrez 1996). On the issue of reliability, data for power systems in Africa are extremely limited; moreover, supply is widely considered to be low in several African countries. Alternatively, electric utility industry reforms in Chile and Argentina, which led to significant increases in plant availability factors, have reduced the number, length and frequency of outages as compared to their previous experiences (Gutierrez 1996).
3.4.3 Electricity Tariffs

Prices of electricity have typically been between 3 and 4 cents per KWH, compared to 8 and 9 cents or higher in developed economies. Prices have thus been insufficient to generate revenue to cover long run marginal cost, taking into account asset depreciation. These problems are further exacerbated by difficulties in billing and billing decision. Traditionally, state-owned enterprises have played a dual role in electric utility services, acting both as providers of services and regulators. The regulatory structure is not transparent, often characterized by undesired distortive effects. Tariffs, for example, are set by cabinet decision or by the line ministry responsible for the power sector. Most countries have had relatively high inflation (i.e., double-digit) during the past twenty years. As a consequence, there has been a definite tendency to use the cabinet’s or the line ministry’s
ability to manipulate electricity prices as part of broader anti-inflationary programmes. This suggest that real electricity prices have actually fallen drastically n those countries in the region with high inflation.

3.5 Water and Waste Management

Africa made some progress during the International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade (1980-90). The number of persons served in urban and rural areas rose from 110
million in 1980 to 230 million in 1990 (114 million of the later being in urban areas). But this was overshadowed by rapid population growth, resulting in more urban residents being
without adequate water supplies in 1990 that in 1980. Water supply and treatment are also deficient in the region. In 1995, only 60.1 and 40.24 percent of the region’s urban and rural
population respectively had access to safe water, albeit with substantial variation in different countries the range was 18 and 18 percent in Central African Republic and 95 and
100 percent for urban and rural areas respectively in Mauritius. Chart 5 presents a comparative analysis of the percentage of population with access to safe water for Africa
and other regions. Most of the water pipe networks are old and urgently require repair and replacement.

UrbanRural

Africa’s performance in terms of access to sanitation is equally deplorable. In 1995, only 36.6 per cent of the population had access to sanitation compare to 51 per cent in South East Asia, 64.1 percent in Latin America and 96.7 OECD countries (see Table A1).


However, why Mauritius attained 100 per cent access, the comparative figures for Zambia, Congo Republic and Lesotho are 23, 9 and 6 per cent respectively. A few urban water utilities have been restructured (Conakry, Abidjan, Banjul, for instance). They have moved from being government departments operating with little commercial autonomy and no accountability to commercially run public agencies or to fully or partially privatized firms. Experience has shown that delivery of water to the poorest segments of the population becomes both cheaper and more reliable through such reforms but this transition is still in its early stages.

3.5.2 Tariffs

Except in very few countries, water and waste-water sectors rely on governments for a substantial part of funding requirements, especially for capital investment. Charges are thus kept low to convey benefits to households. Table 9 presents the median price of water for several African countries in 1993. The figures compare favourably with the median price of $0.54 in Asia Pacific but low compared to $2.24 in industralized economies. As with other infrastructure sectors, the balance between household and industrial water tariffs tends to fall more heavily on industry. Currently, the price of water does not reflect its scarcity, resulting in wasteful use of water.

3.6. War Affected Countries

Many devastating conflicts have persisted in several African countries ( Ethiopia, Namibia, Uganda, Angola and Mozambique) while pernicious internal struggle continue to plague others (Liberia, Somalia, Sudan and Sierra Leone). The damage inflicted on the social capital and economic potential of these countries have been horrific. The impact of warfare on physical infrastructure has been enormous, exercebating the already precarious situation. While war ravaged, infrastructure stocks including roads and bridges were often the primary targets. Existing infrastructure stocks were often severely depleted. For example, in Uganda, the transport infrastructure suffered greatly from neglect during the troubled period between 1971 and 1986. The international airport at Entebbe was extensively damaged during the conflict with Tanzania in 1979-80. The railway system was not left out as many sectors of tract, apart from the rolling stock, were in serious need of remedial work by 1986. This has been the trend in many war ravaged economies.

.7. Landlocked Countries and Infrastructure

Africa has a considerable number of landlocked countries, incidentally among the poorest countries in the world. The current state of infrastructure provision in these countries is demonstrably poor relative to other African countries, thus constituting impediments to the growth potentials of these economies. Countries like Malawi, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Zambia rely on neigbouring countries to ensure reliable delivery. Transportation problems are compounded for landlocked countries by problems in intermodal transportation. In many cases, railway system differ among countries, schedules are not coordinated, and even in transport by road, goods tend to be delayed by customs control. It takes a typical Ugandan business man, three and half months from the time of shipment departure from Europe until arrival Kampala, three times what will be needed under comparable conditions elsewhere in the world (Donaldson, et. al. 1997).

3.8 Infrastructure and the Environment

Infrastructure development in Africa has largely proceeded with minimal consideration for environmental standards and quality. This has been a major factor in the severe degradation of the environment in the form of industrial pollution. In any case, environmental issues have not been given serious policy considerations in Africa’s development agenda. Environmental awareness has only become perceptible in recent years since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil in June 1992. The concept of sustainable infrastructure development has become relevant in Africa.
Creating a sustainable infrastructure economy based on efficient resource use should be given greater consideration. The environmental problems within urban areas often termed the ‘brown agenda’ is more immediate in Africa. The issues involve include the lack of safe water supply and sanitation, inadequate solid and harzadious waste management, emissions from cars etc. The need arises to introduce environmental sound practices in the management of existing infrastructure in Africa. 

 

Causal Factors in the Inadequate Provision and Delivery of Infrastructure Services in Africa.

A pertinent question is what led to the present unsatisfactory outcomes? In spite of the recognition that each infrastructure sector has its own peculiar problems, there are common weaknesses in most African countries. An extensive inquiry is beyond the scope of this paper, but it suffices to focus on several general reasons affecting infrastructure delivery in Africa.

While political and economic instability, low per capita incomes and often challenging geographic conditions have significantly constrained the development of Africa’s infrastructure, there is abundant evidence that the protracted crisis in the sector is due mainly to past and current policy choices. A major explanatory factor is the prevalence of a regime of price controls that for a long time had little consideration for commercial objectives including cost recovery. Prices amount, on average, to just above a third of supply costs and are half as much as those in industrial countries. The pricing regime is characterized by administered prices that are in many cases appreciably below what is required to operate, maintain and rehabilitate facilities, and consequently entail large efficiency losses and social costs. Too often, controlled prices often imposed on state infrastructure monopolies, prices that are unresponsive to changing market conditions, encourage uneconomic investment of resources targeted at meeting the inefficient and unsustainable growth in the demand for infrastructure services. It is evident that prices that are below economic costs and what is needed to finance infrastructure development and maintenance expenditure in the face of escalating cost conditions in the industry are unlikely to restrain excessive demand and minimize uneconomic investment of resources. With negative or at best low positive financial and social rates of return to infrastructure investment associated with low product prices, it is not surprising that supply shortages persisted in the sector. In response to these shortages, many businesses and households have resorted to self-provision, often at high cost. For example, according to a 1988 study of 179 Nigerian manufacturers, 92 percent of forms surveyed owned electricity generators, and 44 percent had boreholes to assure their own private water supply. In the face of chronically unreliable public services, many also had acquired radio equipment for communications (37 percent of firms) and vehicles to transport personnel (37 percent) and freight (63 percent).
For firms with 50 or more employees that could practice economies of scale, the extra costs of private power generator amounted to some 10 percent of the total machinery and equipment budget; for smaller firms, the burden was as high as 25 percent.7 Substantial self-provision of infrastructure is also the norm for low income consumers, relief from the failure of public providers often comes through the informal sector. The best known examples are private water vendors who use trucks or smaller receptacles to haul water either for distribution at central locations or to individual dwellings. In some places, private vendors served 90 percent of households, and in several places purchases of private water amounted to more than 30 percent of household income.

A fairly robust analysis of incremental reserves that would arise from moderate and achievable increase in financial returns through pricing reforms in Africa’s infrastructure, albeit dated, indicates that the net benefit on resource mobilized would amount to about one fifth and one third of public revenues as shown in Table 11 (Anderson,1989). Furthermore, such reforms apart from being easy to administer would entail negligible ‘deadweight’ or efficiency losses.

Sector Current contribution Potential Contribution as Percentage to Public Revenue of Public Revenue

Overall Incremental Effect

Electricity small or negative 5 – 10 per cent 5 – 10 per cent

Water small or negative 2 – 5 per cent 2 – 5 per cent

Telecoms varies but marginal 5 – 10 per cent 5 – 10 per cent

Roads 10 – 15 per cent 10 – 25 per cent 5 – 10 per cent
Source: Anderson (1987).

Apart from administered prices, several demand and supply-related factors, some of them interwined, have had a profound negative impact on infrastructure development in Africa. As in most other developing countries, governments in the region have assumed responsibility for almost all of these infrastructure services through state owned enterprises created precisely in order to make socially productive investments so as to eliminate impediments to the overall economic development. Almost without exception, the provision of infrastructure in Africa is the exclusive responsibility of the government.
Government own, operate and finance nearly all infrastructure. Thus, the record of success and failure in infrastructure is largely a story of government’s performance. However, these enterprises have established a poor reputation across Africa. Besides trying to provide a particular service to an acceptable quality, they are also expected to pursue a variety of social” goals, including the creation of employment and the subsidization of prices to consumers, ostensibly with the view to providing broad and affordable access to the poorer parts of society. These objectives have in reality imposed a variety of costs on the enterprises as a major employment mechanism has resulted in significantly bloated workforces. Similarly, the prevalence of widespread input and output subsidies creates significant wedges between product prices and costs and in the process confront these enterprises with soft budget constraints and dysfunctional government interference in sector activities and enterprise management functions that encourage gross inefficiency in production, distorted demand patterns and investment choices, induced endemic and expensive delays and cost overruns that encouraged widespread corruption in infrastructure construction and equipment and material purchases and minimized the market responsiveness of the sector to changing demand and supply conditions through excessive regulations. The subsidization of services in reality often allows the more affluent citizens to benefit disproportionately from artificially low prices by providing them with better access to these services. In Lusaka, Zambia, for instance, only 28% of the households in the poorest fifth of the population have access to electricity, compared to 70% in the richest segment. Similarly, it has been estimated that the poorest fifth of the population in Tanzania receives only about 10 per cent of the government subsidy for water, whereas the richest fifth receives about 40 percent. At the same time, these subsidization polices have invariably translated into smaller revenues. Public utilities have thus often found themselves in the difficult financial position of not being able to cover their operating expenses. It has not been possible in many cases to maintain existing facilities adequately, and new investments have consistently had to be postponed. At the same time, most governments have suffered from chronic budget deficits, which have kept them from filling the financial gap. In the end, countries have been left with inadequate infrastructural facilities, while the responsible enterprises, not motivated by commercial objectives, have had little incentive to improve their performance significantly. The Nigerian experience provides considerable support for the distortionary effects and the disincentives associated with excessive political interference in investment decision, pricing policy, plant location, equipment choice and employment structure resulting in higher costs and low earning ability of public infrastructure.

Economic theory justifies an important role for government intervention in efficient and equitable infrastructure use and provision. The arguments rest on several “traditional” notions of market failure, such as: externalities in consumption and production; scale economies; non-excludability; information problems about benefits alleviation. But infrastructure services are diverse and each exhibits these characteristics to varying degrees. Policies often fail when they do not make such distinctions within infrastructure.

There are several reasons why public provision of infrastructure services have not had the desirable impact in Africa.

First, under a public sector dominated regime, investments in infrastructure are often misallocate for various reasons. For example, most of the selected projects are not based on the articulated needs of the society. Hence, there is no informed prioritisation of project selection or implementation. Hence, projects of lowest priority could be preferred to those of topmost priority in terms of the real needs of the society at a given point in time. Another dimension relates to the obsession with new projects. In this regard, there is usually excessive concentration of resources on new structures and little or no allocation to maintenance of infrastructural facilities. Interestingly, however, infrastructure is the easiest prey for speeding cuts during periods of fiscal crisis, while priority is given to consumption-promoting expenditure and projects of short term benefit to the economy. Many on-going infrastructural projects are usually abandoned, only to be revived, if at all, at very exorbitant costs later on. Another major source of disenchantment with this policy stance relates to the quality of services. The delivery of high quality services is usually hampered by technical inefficiency and outright waste.
Inadequate maintenance leads to erratic service supply and distribution, while the low productivity of such facilities results in very high unit operating costs which are often times passed on to the consumers. The useful life of affected facilities are also shortened.
The World Bank (1994b), observed that low-income communities are not offered suitable transport and sanitation options that provide services they value and can afford. Rather, premature investments in capacity especially in water supply, railways, power and irrigation have often absorbed resources that could otherwise have been devoted to maintenance, modernisation or improvements in service quality. More significantly, because infrastructure investments are immobile and serve local markets, excess capacity cannot serve other markets and it remains under-used. And in some cases, large public projects have been overambitious, placing a costly burden on the economy. Also important is the twin problem of waste and inefficiency, that seems to claim a large share of resources that could be used for infrastructural services delivery.

The nature of public decision process with multiple, nebulously defined and often conflicting objectives which place less emphasis on nor provide adequate incentives for efficiency of operations is at the root of this problem. Arising therefrom, investment decisions and tariff policies are often driven primarily by political considerations. Many infrastructure projects in Africa should never have been embarked upon. Decisions to proceed with new projects are sometimes taken at the political level. It is not uncommon for the political element, for reason of prestige or with unjustified claims insist on an overdesigned capacity. Even within the state-owned enterprises, management is often appointed more on the basis of political loyalty than competence, and staffing profiles are more often dictated by political demands rather than felt needs. Costing and pricing decisions are also guided less by economic but more by political considerations. It is against this background that agitation have mounted for private sector involvement in the provision of infrastructure. This, it is hoped, would enhance the preference for economic considerations and demand-driven decisions process. Greater emphasis will be placed upon efficiency with its attendant positive effects on economic growth, enhance standard of living and poverty alleviation. The reduced pressure on government revenue will also facilitate internal and external equilibria and stimulate foreign investment. Overall, permission for private provision of infrastructure will suggest to international and national investors, or development institutions government’s commitment to sound fiscal management, efficiency and substantial role for the private sector (Kerf and Smith,
1996).

Redefining public-private sector interface in the provision of infrastructure services has become an important though controversial policy issue in the search for a more viable infrastructure sector in Africa. This is particularly vital since the efficiency, productivity and reliability of infrastructure provision impacts on the efficiency of domestic production and investment as well as the international competitiveness of the economy. A crucial variable is also the role of foreign capital. Foreign private involvement in Africa’s infrastructure has been quite limited as shown in Table 11 which presents private infrastructure projects word-wide between 1985 and 1995. A cursory examination of the table indicates that only sixty-four projects were recorded for Africa in the ten year period, compared to 223 for East Asia/Pacific and 252 for OECD countries. The project sum at $1.2 billion (less than 1 per cent) is equally deplorable and the reasons are not farfetched.

The region is yet to broaden its investment base beyond energy and mining which remain the prime attractions. Africa has the unenviable reputation of having uncompetitive product markets, thin capital markets, perceived high risks as well as legal, procedural and regulatory impediments. Public enterprises in infrastructure have a lower net worth and are
less attractive to foreign buyers, except perhaps in telecommunications. African governments until recently resist selling to foreigners. Investors are reluctant to take an equity position in infrastructure because governments have established consistent pricing
and other macroeconomic policies which continue to undermine infrastructure. Even in
countries where the sector is open to private participation, there is often the problem of
the inability of regulatory and legal institutions to provide credible commitments to create
opportunities for potential investors to cover their investment costs and make profit
including the risk-adjusted opportunity cost of capital. Macroeconomic and political instability as well as legal restrictions on foreign capital discourage the flow of direct
investment to this sector. Investors are wary of internal political volatility and the uncertainty of obtaining the enforcement of contracts.

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Roads Bring Jobs to People… Will Africa Follow this Advice??

January 19, 2005. Over the last fifty years, investing in transport infrastructure has been a common ‘strategic’ intervention intended to bring firms and job creation to lagging regions stuck in spatial poverty traps, where poor infrastructure and resource endowments limit access to educational, social, and economic opportunities

However, World Bank researchers Deichmann, Kaiser, Lall, and Shalizi find that, in practice, firms often make their location decisions based on a range of factors—including the benefits of clustering in areas that offer both natural and production-related advantages.

This finding is part of a broader World Bank development research effort to examine the effectiveness of government interventions in lagging regions, and the policy tension between the market solution of out-migration or “moving people to jobs”, and the intervention of promoting capital flows, including fiscal transfers designed to support incomes or to subsidize the creation of jobs and the extension of credit –“moving jobs to people”.

“Roads are necessary for the expansion of production and trade, but they do not always facilitate the movement of jobs to people,” says Zmarak Shalizi, who heads the Infrastructure & Environment Research Team at the World Bank. “Our research in Indonesia shows that investing in transport infrastructure to attract industry to secondary centers outside of Java will have limited success without complementary investments, especially in sectors that benefit from clustering and are already established in other leading regions.”

The broader conclusion from the Indonesia research study is that authorities need to better understand the factors that influence location decisions for manufacturing firms, and also need to view the outcomes of potential policy interventions in a new ‘economic geography’ context.

Given that governments in both developed and developing countries have widely undertaken spatially targeted programs that include public expenditure on transport infrastructure to improve market accessibility, the research presents new evidence that could influence future policy decisions.

In Bihar, India, for instance, standardized manufacturing development is not likely to be very successful, where production is already clustered elsewhere in India because of increasing returns from clustering. In the absence of investment focused in a few centers, the state is more likely to benefit from an agro-based industrial strategy, since agriculture is likely to be the mainstay of Bihar’s economy for the foreseeable future.

What firms want

‘Localization economies’ partly explain the location decisions of some firms. These clusters of firms located in the same area share sector-specific inputs, skilled labor and knowledge. Opportunities for intra-industry linkages such as buyer-supplier relationships, and subcontracting are higher when firms are located near one another.

Firms also look for the benefits offered by ‘urbanization economies’, where a larger overall size of urban agglomeration and its diverse industry mix enables innovative firms to access a large pool of potential buyers and complementary services.

Larger cities provide a larger home market for products; attract skilled employees looking for urban amenities; and offer financial, legal, real estate, advertising and services not available to such an extent in smaller towns.

In addition, firms look at various aspects of the local business environment, ranging from quality and cost of complementary utility services to the nature of the regulatory environment.

The limited success of regional incentives

Evidence from research is mixed on whether regional incentives—such as interest rate subsidies, tax breaks and industrial estate development—succeed in attracting industries or transforming the fortunes of lagging regions within a country.

In India, evidence shows that the government’s policy of influencing industry location toward backward areas using licensing regulations was neither successful in stimulating industrialization in these areas, nor sustainable in the long run, as new investments moved out of these regions as soon as regulations were relaxed.

In Brazil, research suggests some regional incentives are effective where the need for complementary factors have been addressed.

Developing an “intervention package”

“Clearly, large-scale transport improvements and regional incentives, without other forms of public service provision and amenity creation, are not enough to induce firms to locate production facilities in spatially disadvantaged areas,” says Somik V. Lall, Senior Economist with the Bank’s Infrastructure & Environment Research Team.

Lall advocates that governments seeking to woo firms into lagging areas invest first in finding out more about what firms want, and then develop a comprehensive package of strategic complementary interventions.

Finding out more about what firms want can be done both through surveys of firm representatives, as well as by econometric analysis that can establish the probability of a firm in a specific sector establishing production in a particular location.

A survey that attempts to find out what firms want should gather information on several aspects of the business environment. For instance, measures of the quality of utilities, such as frequency and duration of electricity cuts, can directly affect firms’ performance.

Measures of the regulatory environment are also very important – firms’ decisions could be influenced by the time taken to start a new business, time taken to hire or lay off employees, and the existence of corruption among officials.

The researchers

World Bank Development Research Group

Uwe Deichmann is a Senior Environmental Specialist in the Development Research Group and coordinator of its Spatial Analysis Team. His research interests are in the geographic aspects of development. He is currently working on approaches to information based urban management in rapidly growing cities and on poverty-environment linkages.

Somik V. Lall is a senior economist with the infrastructure and environment team of the Development Research Group. His current research includes (1) examining the impacts of programs to assist the urban poor, (2) implications of strengthening local government fiscal capacity, and (3) influence of local and regional policies on sub national growth. Lall has recently initiated a policy research program with IPEA in Brazil to examine the determinants of growth and slum formation in urban areas, and is also working with the Indian National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) to examine the consequences of improving local tax handles on revenues and provision of services and local public goods in selected Indian cities.

Zmarak Shalizi is Senior Research Manager for Infrastructure and Environment in the Development Research Group. His current research interests include (1) urban and regional development, including evaluating pricing and non-pricing approaches to reducing the negative externalities associated with motorization in rapidly growing cities in Asia; (2) Mitigation and adaptation issues associated with climate change, particularly problems of lock-in and path dependency in the use of different types of energy in China and India; (3) evaluating institutional reforms and economic instruments to facilitate Forest and Biodiversity conservation.

World Bank Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit
Kai Kaiser is an Economist with the Public Sector Group at the World Bank. His current work focused on decentralization and sub-national economics, public finance, and institutional constraints to government performance and reform. Previously he was based in Jakarta, Indonesia. He remains engaged in a research project to assess the impact for Indonesia’s 2001 Big Bang decentralization on households and firms. Recently he has also worked on decentralization reforms in Africa and South Asia.

External Researchers:

Professor Christopher Timmins (Duke University)

Professor Sanjoy Chakravorty (Temple University)

Dr. Alexandre Carvalho (IPEA, Brazil)

References:

Agglomeration, transport, and regional development in Indonesia. Uwe Deichmann, Kai Kaiser, Somik V. Lall, Zmarak Shalizi. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3477, January 2005

Public Interventions for improving economic prospects of lagging regions: review of experience. Somik V. Lall. The World Bank and NIPFP, October 2005

Regional Subsidies and Industrial Prospects of Lagging Regions. Alexandre Carvalho, Somik V. Lall, and Christopher Timmins. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, forthcoming.

Industrial Location and Spatial Inequality: Theory and Evidence from India. Somik V. Lall and Sanjoy Chakravorty, Review of Development Economics, 9, 47-68, 2005.

October 18, 2007

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Hydro Electric Power Plant Closer to Reality.

Trans-African Development Strategies is pleased to announce that it has forwarded through it’s intermediary in Brussels, to the officials of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) its intentions and interest in building Africa’s largest Hydro Electric Power Plant Facility.

Trans-African Development Strategies has indicated it is open to various forms of completing this deal and is close to formalizing an agreement with an International Consortium to fund this project in its entirety pending satisfactory agreements with the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is envisioned that this Power Plant will supply most or all of DRC’s electric needs as well as those of several neighboring countries when completed.

It is also anticipated to request discussions sometime after the New Year or early 2008, with ESKOM concerning potential interconnections from this Power Plant to facilitate the full electrification of Sub Saharan Africa.

It is hoped that this project along with the Trans-African Development Company project for Road “rehabilitation” and the Trans-African Development Strategies 4-lane toll highway (to run from Central African Republic to Zambia and beyond along with other projects proposed) will be discussed with President Joseph Kabila on his upcoming trip to the USA October 26, 2007.

October 1, 2007

Craig Eisele Creates Trans-African Development Strategies, Inc.

Craig Eisele Creates:

Trans-African Development Strategies, Inc.
 

            Trans-African Development Strategies, Inc or “TADS” is a New “Private” NGO focused on Infrastructure Development in Africa.

            The purpose of TADS is as follows:

1.    To provide Infrastructure development throughout Africa, whereas the Countries of Africa incur NO DEBT.

2.    To rehabilitate the 108,000 km of roads in Sub-Saharan Africa as identified in a study for the World Bank in 2006 (co-authored by David Wheeler) to facilitate development of trade throughout the Continent of Africa.

3.    To establish a modern limited access 4-lane “Highway” extending from the Mediterranean Cost of Africa and ending in South Africa (hopefully Cape Town, and 1 to 2 kilometers wide the full length of approximately 10,000 km.

4.    To encourage investment in the major portions of Infrastructure in the areas of Communications, Transportation and Power along the path of the “highway listed above in Item #3 and itemized below.

5.    To facilitate the development of a Trans-African Railroad

6.    To facilitate the development of a series of Pipelines to include Oil and Gas (refined and crude products) and Transportation of Water resources to areas in need.

7.    To bring a Fiber Optic Cable through the CENTER of Africa allowing Communication, Video and Internet into areas beyond the coastlines of Africa.

8.    To erect an Electric Transmission line from North to South through the Center of Africa.

9.    To develop electric Generation facilities including Hydro, Solar, Wind, Nuclear and Natural Gas along this same route.

10.  10 To assist in the development of Manufacturing Facilities and secondary and tertiary processing facilities for Natural resources to maximize value added services within Africa and to substantially add and foster job creation.

11.  To Assist in the building of Schools and Hospitals along this same pathway.

12.  Assist in the development of large scale commercial farming and ranching operations.

13.  To repeat Items 3 through 12 on at least one possibly 2 East to West Trans Continental Paths in Africa intersecting with the Primary Route of North to South and tying the Continent of Africa together with World Class Facilities.

We are certain that this will allow Africa to not only be self sufficient, but also Increases Wages to alleviate Poverty, reduce human suffering increase health care availability, and foster educational benefits throughout Africa and allow other NGO’s to better server those people who are in need but are not getting the aid they now desperately need because of the lack of infrastructure.

We also believe that the increase in GNP and GDP will spawn an increase in Tax Revenues and the ability for the countries to be able to access international financing for other projects that each individual country deems appropriate for its population.

TADS expects to raise 100 Billion Dollars of “AID” for the Roads and Highway Projects paid over the next 7 years. With Direct Spending on African Labor and materials to exceed 40 Billion Dollars up to 70 Billion dollars over the 7 year period. A Strategy to obtain these funds has been developed and refined over the last 2 years. While meet with skepticism by many the project is real and attainable despite the nay-sayers and those who would detract form the ultimate goal of a “New and Brighter Future for Africa.”

This estimate does not include anything except the road and highway projects.

TADS has a REAL Vision for Africa and invites anyone wishing to see this vision realized to participate in anyway they feel is appropriate.

While this is the first in a series of Announcements, more information will be provided over the near future.

 

Craig Eisele

Managing Director

Trans African Development Strategies, Inc.

 

September 24, 2007

FREE… that is what African Countries have been told!

FREE… that is what African Countries have been told!

By: Craig Eisele 24 August 2007

Free is just that FREE!!

What am I referring to?? 108,000 Kilometers of road rehabilitation… cost… about 40 billion US dollars… Cost to participating African Countries… ZERO!!

“What?” I can hear the disbelief coming through my computer already!! Yes… Zero Cost!!

As the Founder of Trans-African Development I have spent the last 2 years trying to find a proper way of giving Africa a boost to be self sufficient… And I believe with my whole heart that I have done just that.

So what is the problem?? Well. Besides skepticism and people who are myopic (closed minded) and without hearing me through on this plan and how it can be implemented, dismiss the idea as fanciful or impractical…. The problem appears to be that this project plan has not been able to get to the decision makers of most African Countries to present such a plan for development. The “gatekeepers”, as they are called in marketing and management terms, are blocking access and as a result they are keeping Africa from Development that is needed for the PEOPLE of Africa.

Today in AllAfrica.com there was an article (http://allafrica.com/stories/200709240087.html) co-authored by Donald Kaberuka (President of the African Development Bank) and Pascal Lamy (Director General of the WTO… World Trade Organization) that specifically referenced the need for the rebuilding of Sub-Saharan Trade Routes (by aid I presume) to facilitate Africa’s ability to Trade Inter-Africa as well as Outside the Continent of Africa. YET… I have already devised a program to do just that…. based upon the same World Bank report co-authored by David Wheeler.

How is it possible that these gentlemen, these men with intense interest in developing Africa, are not aware of this project??… It is simple… the “gatekeepers” have decided that this project is not realistic without even hearing the presentation or reading the literature that supports this project. Hence… Africa and Africans suffer the consequences.

Africa is suffering from Paralysis by Analysis at its highest levels. The “movers and shakers”, those that are willing to actually do the work, are dismissed instead of being used to implement ideas and strategies that benefit the Continent of Africa. While the People of Africa are natural entrepreneurs, some governing bodies seem to me obsessed with more and more studies as the people of Africa suffer. In my opinion, this is just plain wrong.

The Continent needs a through and complete coordination of needs to facilitate plans that benefit the people and the Communities of Africa… but that requires that there be an actual implementation plan of action and that it actually be implemented…. Personally I cannot wait that long…. And I suspect neither can the Population of Africa. So I implore ALL Countries in Africa to endorse this plan as “good” for them and for all of Africa and to let me implement this project with minimal delays!!!

I am ready to IMPLEMENT this project plan… to rehabilitate the roads necessary for trade and Development of the Continent of Africa… but I cannot do it without the governing bodies of Africa… and so far trying to get to the right people, let alone get their endorsement has been frustrating.

Today I decided to make my frustration known… to publicly announce that I stand ready to raise the money for this “gift” to Africa and to start the process of rebuilding the most basic of Infrastructure needs… ROADS.

I humbly ask those decision makers in Africa to hear my call. I ask that they endorse such a gift and see the enormous potential that such a project can and will bring to the Continent. The idea that we can ease human suffering, create Jobs, Increase Investment, and start a positive path for the Population of Africa ….to ease their suffering, reduce poverty and despair and to bring hope for a better future to fruition via this project!

NGO’s take note… as this will allow your “aid” to get to the people in a timely and reasonable safe and efficient manner… to the Industries of the World take heed… this project bring transportation of raw and finished goods to a more efficient level… and to the people of Africa… I will not stop trying to help you to be able to be self-sufficient! No NGO or Industry should hinder this project.. and in fact they should also endorse it and encourage its implementation and development with all due haste. The question is… do you have the foresight and courage to do so??

This article is not meant to inflame or denigrate any person or persons… it is strictly a call to action for those that can help… to those that want to make a difference…

I neglected to say that several Countries have endorsed this project… but naturally they do not want to be left sitting alone while the rest of Africa ignores this project. I respect their need and desire to be anonymous until we have a majority of African Nations endorsing this project.

Lastly I want to reiterate the word FREE…. few if any African Country can afford to do what I am offering to do in their own countries… the only real way to help Africa is to give it the necessary Infrastructure to allow it to develop in the way it wants to develop… the road rehabilitation offer is only a tool for Africa to use…. BUT even then… such a project MUST be WITHOUT cost to ALL AFRICAN Nations… to saddle them with more debt is only to exacerbate the problems that have kept Africa down so long… and any cost to any African Nation for this project would simply add to what is already a tragic story…. So again I want to do this project for FREE (NO COST TO ANY AFRICAN COUNTRY)!!

Next week in Tanzania there is a conference (yes ANOTHER conference) with the world Bank about Aid and Trade… I would hope that this project and the Trans-African Development Company’s proposal would be discussed and publicly acknowledged as something that has potential if not more for Africa and should be encouraged to proceed with tacit endorsement pending review…. I will be watching and waiting to see if the decision makers are finally aware of this… and hopefully share with me this dream of a revitalized Africa in the near future.

NOTE: This “Road Rehabilitation” project is in addition to the Trans African Development Company project to build a 4-lane major highway extending from the Mediterranean Sea to the tip of Southern Africa and the ancillary projects it hopes to install as well along that path.

September 23, 2007

The Humanitarian Impact of Urbanisation in Africa

Tomorrow’s Crises Today – the Humanitarian Impact of Urbanisation
UN Integrated Regional Information Networks

NEWS
21 September 2007
Posted to the web 21 September 2007
Nairobi
Somewhere, some time this year, a baby will be born on the 25th floor of a city hospital or the dirt floor of a dark slum shack; a first-year college graduate will rent a cramped apartment in lower Manhattan or a family of five will finally concede their plot of farm land to an encroaching desert – or sea – and turn towards Jakarta or La Paz or Lagos in search of a new livelihood and a new home. The arrival of this family or graduate or baby will tip the world’s demographic scale and, for the first time in history, more than half the human population will live in cities.

At present, 3.3 billion people live in urban centres across the globe. By 2030 this number is predicted to reach five billion, with 95 percent of this growth in developing countries. Over the next three decades, Asia’s urban population will double from 1.36 billion to 2.64 billion, Africa’s city dwellers will more than double from 294 million to 742 million, while Latin America and the Caribbean will see a slower rise from about 400 million to 600 million, according to the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).

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While megacities appear more frequently in headlines and on development agendas, overall growth in urban centres of 10 million or more inhabitants is expected to level out. Instead, over the next 10 years, cities of less than 500,000 will account for half of all urban growth.

Two sides of the urban coin

All this growth is not necessarily a bad thing. As David Satterthwaite of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) points out, the speed at which a city grows – if it is responding to economic opportunities – is a benefit, not a problem. “A very large part of the economic value in any country is being generated in the urban areas,” Satterthwaite says. “Even in [developing] nations, where 60 to 70 percent of the population is in rural areas, you still have more than half the economy – and often more than that – generated in urban areas.”

The problem is not growth, but unplanned growth. In 2001, 924 million people, or about 31 percent of the world’s urban population, were living in informal settlements or slums, 90 percent of which were located in the developing world. By 2030, the number of worldwide slum dwellers is projected to reach two billion. In the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka, 3.4 million of the city’s 13 million residents live in 5,000 slum and squatter settlements. Sixty percent of Nairobi’s city dwellers are packed into more than 130 informal settlements occupying only 5 percent of the city’s total land area, while the squatter settlements of Mumbai are growing 11 times faster than the city itself, with 300 people arriving from the countryside each day.

What this translates to is abject poverty, disease, and appalling conditions. Take Dhaka: every time the river level rises, it floods the illegal clusters of tiny stilted huts built on the flood plain with smelly water full of factory effluence. In Delhi, the water problem is one of scarcity as slum dwellers fight each other to gain access to the one working standpipe in their area and often go without for days at a time. Malnutrition is often highest in slums, as unemployment means people are too poor to purchase produce that could be grown on the land.

Defining a ‘slum’ and the ‘urban poor’ invariably focuses on what people lack – access to education, social services, employment, safe and affordable water, sanitation and housing, and residential status. In many cases, they live in sub-standard housing, in public spaces, or in squatter settlements near major urban areas.

It is generally assumed that urban poverty levels are lower than rural poverty levels, but the absolute number of poor and undernourished in urban areas is increasing. “In general, the locus of poverty is moving to cities … a process now recognised as the ‘urbanisation of poverty’,” the UN Human Settlements Program (UN-Habitat) noted in 2003.

If the locus of poverty is moving to cities, development aid has been reluctant to move with it. CARE USA chief Helene Gayle makes a blunt assessment of urban development capacity: “The NGO community is dependent on outside donor funding [and] its priorities often depend on where donors have put their focus,” with the result that “neither the NGO community nor the donor community has co-evolved in the direction of facing urban poverty as rapidly as urban poverty has occurred”.

‘More threatening than the village’

Throughout the 20th century, city growth was largely fuelled by rural to urban migration. Today, however, cities are mostly growing from within – more people are born than are dying in urban centres. This process of urbanisation – what demographers call ‘natural increase’ – is partly an indicator of medical advances across the developing world and of better access to healthcare in urban areas specifically.

But the fact that mortality rates are generally lower in cities masks a health crisis in slums. Worse, those most affected by this urban healthcare divide are children. A 2006 analysis in the International Journal for Equity in Health found that in 15 sub-Saharan African countries the difference in child malnutrition within cities was greater than the urban-rural divide.

As the UN’s 2006/2007 State of the World’s Cities report notes: in Ethiopia, child malnutrition in slums and rural areas is 47 percent and 49 percent respectively, compared with 27 percent in non-slum urban areas; in Niger, child malnutrition in slums and rural areas is 50 and 52 percent, against 35 percent in non-slum urban areas; and in the slums of Khartoum, the prevalence of diarrhoea among children is 40 percent, compared with 29 percent in rural areas. “Living in an overcrowded and unsanitary slum,” the report concludes, “is more life-threatening than living in a poor rural village.”

Access to water

Access to water and sanitation in urban areas, like access to healthcare, is generally better than in rural areas. But again, comparing aggregate urban and rural numbers hides the fact that – for example – in the Mbare neighbourhood of Harare, Zimbabwe, 1,300 people share one communal toilet with six squatting holes.

As urban populations increase, the number of people without access to improved water sources is also rising, doubling from 108 million in 1990 to 215 million by 2010. In dense city environments – and in even more dense slum environments – communicable diseases can quickly become epidemics, making the consequence of unsafe water and poor sanitation much more severe than in rural areas. And more people are affected due to city concentrations.

In addition to the outwardly identifiable impacts of poor access to water, sanitation, and health services (pneumonia, malaria, diarrhoea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS), a dearth of services also perpetuates poverty. The urban poor spend a higher percentage of their income on treating illness, and are more vulnerable to lost wages and have less job security when they are forced to miss work – all of which erodes their coping capacity, and can keep potentially mobile families trapped within a cycle of poverty.

Unnatural disasters

In the last quarter-century alone, 98 percent of the people injured or affected by natural disasters were living in 112 countries classified as low income or low-middle income, according to the World Watch Institute’s 2007 State of the World Report.

And while tsunamis and earthquakes continue to grab the headlines, flooding and landslides affect a much larger number of the urban poor. While the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami accounted for about 90 percent of that year’s natural disaster death toll, the 2.4 million people affected was a relatively small number compared with the 110 million people hit by flooding in Bangladesh, India and China the same year, according to the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) 2005 World Disasters report.

With little available land in urban areas, the poor, by necessity, live on floodplains, unstable cliff sides and in the shadow of industrial facilities. In the developing world an earthquake or a hurricane is not a disaster, but a catalyst for disaster – exposing poor infrastructure, substandard housing, haphazard city planning, and often nonexistent response measures – all of which constitute the true disaster for the urban poor.

Urban warfare

Poverty has long been considered a key driver of violent crime. In recent years, however, this relationship has been challenged as too simplistic. A 2004 article on urban violence and insecurity in the journal Environment and Urbanization identifies inequality as a primary driver, noting that “interpretations based on statistical modelling have demonstrated that with regard to national-level data on murder rates, inequality is more influential than poverty, with income inequalities being generally more marked in urban than in rural areas”.

A World Bank study on violence in Latin American urban areas showed that homicide rates ranged from 6.4 per year per 100,000 in Buenos Aires to 248 in Medellin, Colombia. Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Mexico City, Lima and Caracas account for more than half their countries’ national homicides.

More difficult than measuring crime within urban areas has been differentiating between underlying structural causes (like unequal power relations), and trigger risk factors (such as alcohol and drug abuse), which can often precipitate gender-based violence.

The danger in mapping and measuring urban violence is that perceptions of violence are then reinforced; because statistically-speaking, urban centres (and especially slums) are subject to more crime, violence can become institutionalised, and more dangerously, a stereotype of slum dwellers as criminals is perpetuated.

From shanty to State House

In 1990, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) released its first Human Development Report. The fifth chapter dealt exclusively with the humanitarian effect of urbanisation in the developing world. Addressing the role of local and national governments in service provision for the urban poor, the report’s authors recommended that governments “shift from directly providing services to enabling others to provide them – be they formal and informal producers, community-based and non-governmental organisations or the urban residents themselves”.

By 2007, this outsourcing paradigm had come full circle. As author Rasna Warah noted in her assessment of the Kenyan government’s role in urban development, “The answer to Nairobi’s slum problem lies in stronger and more integrated intervention by government ministries and agencies.”

The promotion of healthcare, education, access to water and sanitation, together with the prevention of violence and the response to natural disasters, depends on active and accountable local and national governments. Indeed, underneath almost all aspects of urban development and poverty reduction are issues of governance.

At the most basic level, good governance involves recognising slum and squatter residents’ legal right to exist, and formalising this right through land tenure, ownership, city zoning regulations, etc. The realisation that government was missing from urban planning coincided with the realisation that the urban poor had been, at best, passive recipients and at worst, completely absent from the planning and implementing of slum upgrading projects; and that the urban poor were in the best position to advocate for their rights vis à vis local governments, and design and implement slum-upgrading schemes.

At present, urban development actors are struggling to define their roles, and to establish a more cohesive, active approach to urbanisation. CARE chief Gayle sees her NGO as a link between governments and communities: “We are not saying that we are marching on the halls of power within countries necessarily, but instead really looking at how we help at the grassroots level to give people a sense of their own ability to engage and make their government accountable to them.”

Cities of half-light

The UNFPA 2007 World Population Report states: “Cities concentrate poverty, but they also represent the best hope of escaping it … The challenge is learning how to exploit [a city's] concentrated population.”

Over the next months IRIN will produce in-depth articles and interviews examining how this challenge is being met. The interviews will include conversations with leaders in the urban development field – from the heads of international NGOs to academics – and slum-dwellers themselves. The in-depth articles will explore issues of urban healthcare, resource scarcity, violence, disasters and the role of governance.

Is the rural model of top-down donor funding workable in urban areas? Is Millennium Development Goal 11 to improve the lives of 100 million slum-dwellers attainable? Does the fact that more than half the world’s population will now be living in cities represent a turning-point around which development practitioners and governments can begin to narrow the already wide gap between urbanites, or is it just a number?

For the urban poor the stakes are high. As the IIED’s Satterthwaite warns, “What we have now is a perfect example of what the future scenario is if we continue failing to change governments’ and international organisations’ response to urbanisation. Half of urban populations have infant and child mortality rates 20 times what they should be, with at least half of the urban populations housed in squatter settlements. We would obviously begin to see strong resistance movements creating civil unrest and possibly civil war.”

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations ]

Part of Africa’s Problems Today are SOME of it’s Leaders.

Continent’s Problem is Today’s Leaders

The Monitor (Kampala)
OPINION
22 September 2007
Posted to the web 21 September 2007

By Mr Jimmy Adiga

This is a response to the speech President Yoweri Museveni delivered at the recent East African Community meeting in Nairobi. The speech was published in Daily Monitor and New Vision of (September 7) titled Africa is awakening and Africa’s problem is with leaders respectively.

With due respect to the president, I’m exceedingly humbled by his problem identification and fixing abilities, vision and courage. Now that he has rightly identified bad leadership as Africa’s major problem causing underdevelopment, we can assume that he will fix it very soon.

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The challenge, however, is the tendency by the current African leaders to exonerate themselves and heap all blames on past leaders – that they failed to resist colonialism which is responsible for Africa’s underdevelopment.

However, look at Ethiopia that was not colonised; the economy is not any where near that of South Africa, a country that was once under the grip of apartheid rule.

Current African leaders behave like a chief executive of a company under liquidation who blames his predecessors for his company’s misfortunes. Today, Africa’s biggest problem is the deliberate effort by the current leaders to ensure institutions do not work in their countries.

The infamous High Court siege in Uganda by gunmen on November 16, 2005, and the worsening legal environment in Zimbabwe, among others, are unfortunate scenarios. Africa needs functioning institutions backed by independent legal frameworks. The impotence of the legal system gives government room to make unpopular policies and decisions.

In Uganda, for example, the government made the unpopular decision to demolish Shimon Demonstration Primary School under the pretext that an investor would build a big hotel at the site. To date, nothing is on the ground.

Often, money is allegedly extorted from “investors” who want to see the President. Yet if issues were handled properly, the right institution for any investor to approach is the Uganda Investment Authority.

Today, even market vendors petition the president to address their problems instead of them taking their cases to the courts of law. Several minority groups such as women, the disabled, Luweero war veterans, the Balaalo, run to the President instead of clearing issues with the relevant bodies. The interesting aspect is that these are deliberate African leaders’ strategies to perpetrate themselves in power.

Therefore, unless African leaders promote institutions in their countries, Africa’s efforts geared towards creating common market, removing trade barriers, creating socio-economic and political federations, regional markets and having uniform customs unions will be in vain. Africa will remain perpetually underdeveloped as the current leaders continue enrich themselves than the nations they lead.

The writer is a student of development economics, Uganda Martyrs University Nkozi.

Mandelson Continues to Alienate in EPA Talks

Mandelson Urges Final Push in EPA Talks

Ghanaian Chronicle (Accra)
NEWS
13 September 2007
Posted to the web 13 September 2007

By Joseph Coomson

EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson on Tuesday urged ACP governments to join a final burst of negotiations to successfully complete Economic Partnership Agreement negotiations by the end of 2007.

He warned that there would be no legal basis for the extension of existing preferential trade terms between the EU and the 78 African, Caribbean and Pacific countries if the two sides do not initial new Economic Partnership Agreements before the end of 2007.

In the absence of such agreements, Mandelson said, the EU and the ACP would have no legal alternative but to switch to the EU Generalised System of Preferences which would mean less-generous tariff preferences for many ACP countries.

Speaking to the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, Mandelson said: “I have no hat and no rabbit to pull out of it If we have no new trade regime in place by the end of this year the Commission has no legal option but to offer the region concerned [less generous] GSP preferences.

“This deadline is not a bluff or some negotiating tactic invented in Brussels. It is an external reality created in the WTO in Geneva. We are committed to replace Cotonou trade preferences with a new trade regime that does not discriminate against non-ACP developing countries. We have to do this by 1 January 2008″.

Mandelson said the European Commission was committed to a successful negotiation.

Noting that the EU has offered to eliminate all tariffs and quotas on all exports from ACP countries as part of an agreement, Mandelson said: “In the time we have available, we will do everything we can to ensure the ACP regions get the best legally secure EU market access available. I believe that EPAs remain attainable for every region, and we will continue to work for success”.

September 10, 2007

Smaller Cities in Africa Experiencing Rapid Growth

In Africa, smaller cities grow faster


By Stephanie HanesMon Sep 10, 4:00 AM ET


As a construction worker in Botswana’s booming capital city, Mpontshang Mokwe is hardly struggling for work these days.
“There are too many buildings,” Mr. Mokwe says, hauling a long strip of lumber toward the most recent of his projects – guest quarters for yet another new home in Gaborone’s Block 8 neighborhood.
Not long ago, Block 8 was all dust and thorn trees and scrubland. Today, it is pure sprawl, with ever-sprouting apartment blocks, single-family homes, and shopping centers. Wander through Block 8, chockablock with construction workers such as Mokwe, and it’s not difficult to imagine how, over the past 15 years, the population of Botswana’s capital has ballooned more than 50 percent to over 200,000. It is expected to grow to 500,000 by 2020.
This rapid population increase is not unique to Gaborone. According to a recently released UN report, “State of World Population 2007,” (www.unfpa.org/swp/) there is mass migration across the globe from rural areas to cities, as well as natural population increase within cities themselves. By next year, the report says, more than half of the world’s people will live in urban centers, placing unprecedented strain on land and city services. Much of this shift will take place in Africa – and in smaller cities more than big ones.
“The increase in urban population is happening worldwide,” says Cheryl Hendricks, head of the southern African security program at the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies. “But it’s particularly strong for Asia and Africa. These are developing countries, and as development occurs there’s always a shift from rural to urban areas.”
The continent’s sprawling megacities, such as Lagos, Nigeria, Kinshasa, Congo, and Johannesburg will absorb many of these new city-dwellers. Already, population pressures in these metropolises have city officials scrambling. In Johannesburg this year, for instance, there have been several riots in the crowded townships, with people protesting what they see as their government’s inability to provide basic services such as water and electricity.
But according to the UN report, it is smaller cities such as Gaborone that will bear the brunt of the world’s rapid urbanization. According to the study, more than 52 percent of urban-dwellers live in cities with fewer than 500,000 residents, and these smaller cities are growing far more than large ones.
Mark Collinson, a researcher with the School of Public Health at Johannesburg’s University of Witwatersrand, gives several reasons for that trend: More rural residents are moving to smaller, regional centers; fertility patterns in smaller cities tend to resemble the larger-family countryside; people have heeded family members’ warnings about the “big, bad” megacities.
“Crime and squalor might be higher in the big city, so people might be more attracted to live someplace like Nelspruit,” Mr. Collinson says, referring to a small city in northeast South Africa. “Smaller cities might have better housing standards and living conditions.”
But whatever the reason, the pattern is unmistakable.
“For the foreseeable future,” the UN report says, growth in “the smaller cities will predominate.”
This doesn’t have to be a bad thing. Urbanization can make it easier for governments to provide schooling and healthcare for its citizens, the report points out, and sound city planning can help reduce a country’s overall environmental degradation. While many smaller cities struggle with scant financial resources, they also tend to have greater flexibility in planning, space, and decisionmaking.
Take Gaborone. A drive around this orderly capital shows some of the challenges of a smaller city turning into a boomtown, but also how some government policies – such as providing land for impoverished newcomers rather than trying to send them back to the countryside – can help ease the transition.
It’s not just city neighborhoods like Block 8 that are exploding in size here – the sprawl extends beyond Gaborone’s original borders. Along the road toward the airport, for instance, a series of developments sits on what was once rich agricultural land. To the south, near the Mokolodi Game Reserve, new upscale housing perches along brown ridge lines, with sweeping views toward the Kalahari.
For years now, Botswana has been considered one of Africa’s success stories: a democratic country with regular positive marks from anticorruption organizations, high literacy rates, and a steady income from diamond-mining that gets funneled back to citizens through various government programs.
When the first president of Botswana, Sir Seretse Khama, took office in 1966, he supported a law that made all of his country’s developments mixed income, vowing to avoid slums of the kind found in neighboring South Africa, says Aloysius Mosha, a professor of architecture and town planning at the University of Botswana. Since then, the government has solidified a welfare and subsidy-based land system where, for the same property, wealthy residents pay a top price and poorer citizens pay a nominal amount. This means – in theory, at least – that all residents have access to land, with minimal segregation between income groups.
The government also cracks down on people who try to set up shacks without permission – an effort to discourage slums, Mr. Mosha says.
While the government acknowledges that its subsidy system is not sustainable forever, and that it can’t stop all impoverished settlements, it continues to create city master plans – something that few other small cities in the region do. And these plans, Mosha says, include designation of significant swaths of land for planned, low-income housing.
“There are push and pull factors,” says Mosha, “They know if they go to the urban areas somebody will take care of them. The population here has been so small, the country has money, and the subsidies have encouraged people to move into urban areas.”
Copyright © 2007 The Christian Science Monitor

September 9, 2007

Eassy Undersea Cable Plan Tangled in Acrimony

Undersea Cable Plan Tangled in Acrimony

Business Day (Johannesburg)
NEWS
5 September 2007
Posted to the web 5 September 2007

By Lesley Stones
Johannesburg
PLANS by the government to prevent a $235m telecoms cable around Africa’s east coast from landing in SA would be denying citizens access to cheap bandwidth and practising double standards, the project’s financiers believe.

The 10000km Eassy cable will be 27% owned by Telkom, Neotel and MTN, and is designed to provide desperately needed cheap bandwidth to 21 African countries. But SA’s communications department has taken umbrage at what it sees as the commercial nature of the enterprise, and intends to withhold landing rights.

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Instead, the government will use taxpayers’ money to roll out two rival cables heading east and west, jointly known as the Nepad Broadband Infrastructure Network. Denying landing rights to Eassy will be detrimental to the three local companies, which, they say, have had the foresight to invest in the project to slash bandwidth prices.

It will also be anticompetitive if Eassy members are not allowed to sell bandwidth to other operators in SA, says Mohsen Khalil, a director with the International Finance Corporation (IFC). He also says the government’s hostility shows it has not understood a new commitment the consortium has made to open access .

The IFC is part of the World Bank, and is investing $32,5m to help about 15 small operators participate in Eassy. Yet the director-general of the communications department, Lyndall Shope-Mafole, remains vehemently opposed to the project. “Eassy is bad news for developing countries that are not at the level of SA,” she says.

“We have many problems with it. The fact that you work for the World Bank makes you think you know what’s good for Africa even when you don’t live in Africa. I find that quite insulting.”

Because Eassy’s biggest shareholders are giants like MTN and Telkom, their bulk buying power gives them an advantage over smaller operators also trying to buy and resell capacity to customers in each country, she says.

“South African companies could use their dominance to compete unfairly in other countries. We have a responsibility as the government to ensure there is fair competition. We are not willing to look at something that is clearly discriminatory. We couldn’t rest with a clear conscience.”

A bigger issue threatening not only Eassy but also other foreign-backed cables is a demand that any cable landing in SA is partly owned by local companies. The minimum percentage of local ownership will be determined by Communications Minister Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri.

The instant reaction is to question whether SA has the right to do that. It has, under the Electronic Communications and Transactions Act, Shope-Mafole says. The second reaction is to assume that foreign investors will be deterred. The government’s belligerent stance in an effort to promote local industries may backfire and deprive consumers of cheaper bandwidth if foreigners opt to bypass SA’s coastline.

Nonsense, Shope-Mafole says. “There are millions of people who want to enter into arrangements and land in SA. We welcome anybody who wants to invest in submarine cables that land on South African soil, but we need South African companies to invest.”

Although Eassy boasts 27% local ownership, that may not be enough. Seacom, another private cable already under construction, must also recruit local investors for the plans on its map to match reality. Seacom has signed a deal for SA’s second network operator, Neotel, to operate the local landing station, which does not impress the government.

Shope-Mafole said the demand for local ownership in the entire cable linking India to Europe via SA was discussed with Seacom’s mostly US investors over a cup of coffee. “I don’t think they thought it was unreasonable. I wouldn’t say they loved it, but they didn’t throw their cups at us,” she says.

“What we are proposing is going to provide low-cost connectivity for the continent and those who want to partner with us can partner with us on our terms.

“We are not going to make the mistake we made with gold and platinum that get mined out of here and taken elsewhere and we buy them back at a higher price. African companies have to make money out of the traffic that comes in and out of Africa.”

Discussions over the landing rights for Eassy are still open, with Khalil saying the government is failing to recognise that the pricing structure has changed to embrace developmental ethics. Khalil agrees that the 26 operators in Eassy originally planned to maintain their high-priced monopoly over telecoms facilities. That changed when the IFC got involved. The IFC spent millions of dollars on feasibility studies to demonstrate there would be enormous demand for bandwidth if it were sold at a price based on the actual cost plus only a modest profit margin.

Consumers on Africa’s east coast typically pay up to $300 a month for internet access. When Eassy is switched on — hopefully at the start of 2009 — the price should dive by two-thirds. This is the first time the IFC has asked private companies to adopt developmental principles as a condition of financial support.

If it can convince notoriously avaricious operators to slash their fees, perhaps it can convince the government to let Eassy land in SA and to allow the members to sell bandwidth to customers in SA.

September 2, 2007

Building On Stability – the U.S.-Africa Infrastructure Conference

Building On Stability – the U.S.-Africa Infrastructure Conference

Africa Journal (Washington, DC)
INTERVIEW
28 July 2007
Posted to the web 28 August 2007

By Erik Arnetz
Washington, DC
From October 8-10, 2007, CCA will host the second annual U.S.-Africa Infrastructure Conference in Washington, D.C. The conference will be chaired by Terry Dunmire, the Director of Business Development of DynCorp International (DI). Dunmire, who was also recently elected to the board of directors of CCA, will lead efforts to engage key stakeholders in infrastructure development in Africa. The Africa Journal spoke to Dunmire about infrastructure in Africa and the conference goals.

Why is infrastructure so critical to the continued economic development of Africa?

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Infrastructure and its effectiveness and stability are the key skeletal structures on which the economies depend. It is the transportation systems that permit the goods and service provides to move effectively to and from the markets; it is the telecommunications and IT infrastructure that link the Continent with the rest of the world; it is the logistical systems that deliver products for all aspects of daily life; it is the electrical and power systems that make it run – in short, it is the efficiency and sufficiency of infrastructure that is essential to continued economic development in Africa.

How far has Africa come in developing its infrastructure?

The last quarter of the 20th century was significant in the development of the IT systems, in the development of the transportation systems, and the other aspects of infrastructure that accompanied the population growth, the increasing urbanization, and the globalization of the economy.

What has been your corporation’s involvement in Africa, and how has that market helped expand your business opportunities?

We provide logistical support, manage construction, and conduct security and equipment training. We also provide advisors and serve as a liaison with the U.S. State Department. The State Department awarded the Sudan Peace Grant to DI in 2001. The grant provides funding in support of the National Democratic Alliance, and was important in securing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that was signed in 2005. DI was instrumental in the agreement, and we continue to support the peace process in Sudan. Another State Department initiative, the Africa Peacekeeping Program, includes a number of projects managed by DI: Liberia Security Sector Reform-We are helping stand up a new democratic armed forces and establish a Ministry of Defense ECOWAS-Our Peace, Security, and Logistics Advisors assist the Economic Council of West African States Africa Union-Based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, we provide a Logistics Advisor to the AU Sudan Security Sector Transformation -We are involved in nation re-building with the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army Senegal-Infrastructure repair and construction management Somalia-We provided the logistical support required to transport 1,600 Ugandan peacekeepers from Uganda to Somalia as part of the UN-sanctioned, Africa Union-led initiative to promote peace and stability in the region.

DI is also managing construction of an international airport in southern Nigeria for the Province of Akwa Ibom. The project includes a runway, interim terminal, hangar, and the first and only Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facility on the Continent. Our company’s experience in logistics, contingencies, security training, field construction, and facilities management is a valuable asset to many efforts such as peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and national reconstruction.

Considering the success of the first annual U.S.-Africa Infrastructure Conference, what improvements can we expect this year?

The success of the first Conference was significant from the standpoint that people could meet other professionals who could either help generate business or act as partners. It also highlighted infrastructure projects in a variety of technical areas and geographical areas. This year we plan on making this an inter-active, transaction/networking conference. The purpose is for participants to come away with a “shopping list” of projects and potential projects; an understanding of the financing options available to investors; and with a much stronger set of connections for operating effectively in Africa.

Why is the conference an attractive opportunity for potential entrants into the African market?

What could be more attractive than to meet those who have various expertise, experience, products, and financing to offer? The entire thrust of this Conference is to be practical, to be effective in catalyzing transactions, to showcase projects that are successful, to introduce projects for potential business, and for each and every participant to come away with a portfolio of business opportunities and potential partners. -

August 27, 2007

African Development Bank’s (AFDB) Donald Kaberuka: Africa’s unique window of opportunity




African Banker
June 2008 edition

Donald Kaberuka: Africa’s unique window of opportunity


Africa is poised for an exciting new era in its economic and social transformation. In this interview with African Banker editor, Anver Versi, African Development Bank President, Donald Kaberuka explains how the Bank has taken the leadership role in driving African economies forward.


African banker: Why is the AfDB holding its annual meeting in Shanghai?

KABERUKA : The Bank responded favourably to an invitation from the Chinese government to hold its Annual Assembly in Shanghai. China has been a nonregional member of the Bank Group since the opening up of the Bank’s capital to non-regional countries. This will be the second time that the Bank goes outside the region to hold its Annual Meeting. We were in Valencia, Spain, in 2001. The theme of the Shanghai Meeting is ‘Asia and Africa: Partners in Development’; it is therefore quite appropriate that we are able to have this discussion in China. As you know, we in Africa are very keen to see and learn first hand, how China has succeeded in achieving tremendous growth over a fairly short period of time and also to promote trade and investment between Africa and China which is mutually beneficial.

What is the state of Africa’s economies today?

At its best in 30 years. We’re seeing, for the sixth year running, sustained economic growth across Africa at 5.5%. The economies with extractive industries such as oil and gas are leading, but even countries not endowed with such natural resources are growing. After many years of policy gains and reforms, macroeconomic stability is now anchored in most parts of the continent. And the external environment continues to be benign. But let me add a rider. First, not all countries are growing above the rate of the population increase. Second, this rate of growth would have to be sustained for many years for it to have any real impact on poverty. Third, in some regions the situation is fragile and the risk of reversal is always lurking around the corner. What we are doing as an institution is to try to consolidate this progress in order to open up further possibilities for Africa. To the frequently asked question: if the economies are growing, why is there so much poverty? The answer is in two parts. Firstly, as I have just mentioned, we would have to sustain this rate of growth for a long time for us to see the impact on poverty and secondly, if economies were stagnating, it would mean that real per capita incomes would be declining given the increasing demographic pressure and therefore deeper and more widespread poverty.

You are in the midst of a major reform process within the AfDB. You also appear to have taken on the leadership role in driving Africa’s economy forward?

First of all I must underline the following: The AfDB is a very solid financial institution. It has got the highest possible ratings. Its risk bearing capacity is very solid. What we are trying to do is to move to the next stage; build on this bedrock of financial soundness to  increase our operational effectiveness and get results on the ground. That is the purpose of the current reforms: becoming result oriented, focused and selective; having greater decentralisation; aligning strategically with partners and developing excellence in a number of areas such as infrastructure, regional integration, water and sanitation and be a strategic counsellor to our member countries on development. As I mentioned earlier, the internal and external conditions have never been better and we see Africa’s own Bank playing a bigger role as a channel of choice for the international efforts and also able to respond much more effectively to the demands of our countries. This is of course a medium term process but we are on track.

At one point, the World Bank was sitting on almost $10bn of un-disbursed resources for Africa. Why is there such a gap between approvals for projects and their implementation?

It is a challenge for all multilateral institutions including the AfDB. The real measure of our effectiveness should be actual results on the ground. How many children we are able to get into school? How many kilometres of roads have been constructed? How are we doing in increasing energy availability? These are the results which count, not the volume of approvals. This said, problems of absorption capacity are real. There are many factors responsible for the gap between approvals and disbursements. If, for example, a country receives a loan from the Bank and then for some reason a conflict breaks out, the chances are, we will suspend disbursements because our operations cannot proceed and the country will, in all probability, fall into arrears. Sometimes it is due to the delays to ratify the loans on time and fulfil other conditions of effectiveness. With increased decentralisation, greater presence in the field, we’ll be able to steadily close the gap between approvals and disbursements.
We have opened 22 out of 25 offices in different parts of Africa and I am already seeing encouraging results on the ground; where conditions for effectiveness, including ratification are faster. There are a number of things we also need to do internally here, especially in streamlining conditionalities in accordance with the “Paris Delegation” on Harmonisation and Development effectiveness.

Does this call for greater harmonisation of efforts?

It calls for greater harmonisation among partners and better dialogue with member countries, better understanding of the countries’ priorities, their institutions, capacity issues so that we can provide a kind of response appropriate to each country’s concerns. That is why field presence is critical.

You are undertaking major reforms to bring about precisely what you’ve talked about, that is. Streamlining operations. But you also work with many bilateral and multilateral partners. Do you see a movement on their part to streamline their operations as well?

We have all signed up to the “Paris Delegation” on Harmonisation and Development effectiveness. The real challenge is implementation. Progress is being made but is far too slow. Over the last 30 years, the international aid architecture has changed considerably with the number and nature of development agencies vastly increasing – multilateral, bilateral agencies, benevolent foundations such as the Bill Gates Foundation as well as the so called “vertical funds” like the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS. The risk of fragmentation, stretching and overloading national capacities is high, hence the need for greater harmonisation of efforts. Progress has been made but we need to move faster.

That leads us naturally to the next question. Despite the massive fanfare and the generous pledges made to African countries at Gleneagles, the level of aid has actually contracted. How can this be explained?

It is true that “core” ODA levels, that is, excluding debt relief and humanitarian operations, have actually declined. That is a fact. While we are aware of the budget constraints and limitations, which are real, it is critical that commitments made are kept.
The political will and momentum mobilised at the Millennium Summit, Gleneagles, must not be lost. Debt cancellation for many eligible countries was a good beginning and has already been realised. As for the next engagement which was to double aid to Africa and improve its effectiveness, all I can say is that it is work in progress. Both we and the World Bank are currently in dialogue with our partners on the future replenishment of our concessional windows which are principal instruments for transferring soft loans and grants to low income countries. We are only a few years to the MDG target and that “big push” is as urgent as ever. Beyond the declining aid levels, we are also disappointed by the slow progress on trade negotiations. We are not underestimating the challenges of an ambitious round such as Doha, but the prize is within reach if the political will is there. Africa, like Asia before, will prosper only by effective participation in world trade. That can happen on two conditions. First, that we have to have a fair international trade regime which frontloads the interests of low income countries. That is why it is called a “Development Round”.
The second condition is that we are able to remove the bottlenecks on the supply side and build our trading capabilities. I am referring to the quality of infrastructure, transport, communications, energy and expanding the trading space within Africa by more effective regional integration. I feel that the window of opportunity which exists today is unique. It is the first time there is such a large global consensus on what needs to be done. In the overarching agenda to fight poverty, it is critical that despite political constraints and other realities, this Multilateral Trade Round negotiations should not be allowed to fail.

How critical, in your opinion, is leadership and governance in accelerating growth in Africa?

Economic growth is all about investment and that requires confidence and stability. Good leadership, sound institutions are essential preconditions for economic growth, as clearly articulated in NEPAD. Today, much of Africa is at peace and under democratic rule, institutions are strengthening, leaders are regularly elected via competitive elections; this has gone a long way to create an era of stability and confidence which is a major contributor to the current positive economic growth.

Africa’s fortunes are still largely tied to the global demand for its raw commodities. Can Africa wean itself away from this pattern of exchange?

You are right to note the problem of dependence on primary commodities. It is true that the current bullish conditions in the global economy and the increase in Asian imports of minerals, oil and other soft commodities has indeed given a boost to some of our economies. Two things are important here. We should use this window, the terms of trade gains, for greater diversification and moving up the value chain. But we will do so if the Doha trade negotiations succeed in dealing with issues such as tariff escalation. We should also seize the opportunity to invest in infrastructure, skills and capacity so that we gradually become less reliant on raw commodities. There is encouraging progress in some countries where services such as finance and IT are fast growing, bypassing commodities. This is what the African Development Bank is trying to encourage and promote.

What is the Bank’s relationship with the private sector?

The AfDB has a private sector window which supports our countries with different instruments: direct lending, guarantees, lines of credit to local finance institutions, promotion of local currency lending and public private sector partnerships etc. We have almost doubled our private sector operations this year, and I expect this trend to continue. We are gearing ourselves to that by increasing our internal capacity to understand and manage risk. The private sector is the future for Africa. That is why the AfDB is also supporting our countries in improving the business climate by reducing the costs of doing business and creating greater confidence.

You do take equity positions?

We are investing in a number of equity funds and the experience so far is encouraging. We are also participating in the Pan-African Infrastructure Fund.

Is the investment commercially-oriented?

We have dual objectives; to get a good return on our investment and to promote development. Our objective is to help the funds and business grow, and our exit strategy is in the region of under 10 years.

How far should privatisation of the public sector go in your opinion? Can development and profits go hand in hand?

Let me rephrase your question. What is the right balance between the state and the private sector? It is no longer the state on one side and the private sector on the other. It is more a partnership between the two. In the first 30 years of Africa’s post-independent period, the public sector became very dominant; the pendulum swung too far. This caused large fiscal imbalances and efficiency losses. Making progress on privatisation is still important but the right balance varies from country to country and therefore it benefits of greater efficiency, reduced fiscal imbalances, are beneficial and the negative impacts temporary. In a number of countries there have been transactional difficulties especially in the aviation and utilities domain such as electricity and water. These are complex transactions requiring careful attention; but the principles remain the same. This said, I think the greatest challenge in Africa is the promotion of the private sector. In some countries, the sector is young and nascent and has to be nurtured. This requires not only the right business environment, but sometimes transitional direct supportive measures.

With the opening up of the 25 field offices as you mentioned, the ADB appears to be firmly on course to decentralisation. How much central authority are you prepared to relinquish?

We are moving away from a rigid centralised system to an agile, responsive one. We aim at tailoring and customising our field presence, depending on the challenges we face on the ground. Countries are different. We are decentralising while maintaining accountability and strong fiduciary controls. Decentralisation resolves some issues but also creates other problems. We are addressing them as we gather experience. But I have no doubt it is the way to go. This is not true just for the AfDB, it is also the same for other similar organisations. The action is in the field. But I once again emphasise the importance of strong fiduciary controls, accountability and seamless links between the field and headquarters.

Are you happy with the level of capacity you have at the moment?

It is an optimisation issue. The demands on the Bank are always increasing as Africa’s expectations on the institution grow. We are aware that we will never have all the financial and human resources we need, no organisation ever does. This is why it is important to be focused, to be selective, to optimise all the resources you have. We are, at this time, engaged in an exercise to increase our staff capacity both in Tunis and in the field offices and we are working assiduously to mobilise additional resources.

How can you encourage and assist national financial institutions to mobilise domestic savings for investment?

By promoting local capital markets and strengthening appropriate local financial institutions, consolidating reforms in the Bank and non-bank financial sectors as well as developing appropriate instruments for each country, depending upon the degree of financial depth.

When you were growing up, did you see yourself as a banker?  What subjects interested you the most while at school?

Like all young boys I wanted to be a pilot! Now, I am a pilot, not of an aeroplane but of Africa’s premier development institution! This said, Africa has always been a passion for me from a very young age and I am glad to be contributing in a modest way in the position I occupy today.

Who, in your opinion, past or present, do you admire the most?

[laughs]. Madiba, Nelson Mandela, the icon of modern day Africa.

What do you wish to achieve before the end of your tenure at the Bank?

I have a job to do here and I am determined to get it done. As for the legacy, I will leave that to historians. This said, I would like, at the end of my tenure, to have consolidated the strong financial position of the Bank and a more focused, effective institution, a channel of choice of support to Africa that is truly Africa’s Premier Development Bank. I would like to see Africa at peace with itself, expanding and diversifying economically, making faster progress at regional integration, moving up the value chain, and taking its rightful place in the world trade and investment flows. It’s a challenging agenda to which I would like to make my modest contribution during my tenure at the AfDB.

What do you do in you do in your spare time?

I play squash on and off, but less and less these days because of the demands on my time; and I listen to classical music.



Source: http://www.africasia.com/africanbanker/afbnk.php?ID=1320

Africa Moves From Regression to Progression

Continent From Regression to Progression

Daily Monitor (Addis Ababa)
COLUMN
23 August 2007
Posted to the web 23 August 2007

By Mekashaw Yimer
Addis Abeba
As history attests Africa is home of mankind and ancient civilization. The African social system has been much communal and socialistic that gives wider space for humanity. The ancient civilization of western Africa, northern Africa, eastern and central Africa as well as southern Africa depicts the fact that African civilization was the real concept of humanistic development that has value for humanity. And the materialistic civilization of the continent in the past was so high. It’s verifications can be observed today through the pyramid of Egypt, Lalibela of Ethiopia and so forth. Besides Africa is mind setup was proactive, confident and progressive.

But as colonizers come to the land of Africa what they did first was destructing the prototype. Social fabrics of the continent. In doing so, the culture, way of thinking and the traditional knowledge of Africa were victimized and at some places totally extinguished, giving space for tribal conflicts, civil war, Corruption and so forth. This perceptional and cultural demise brought about retardation on the humanistic and materialistic development of Africa, and it has impacts on the actions of African which become more of reversion than being progressive. Hence, Money was budgeted rather to adding fuel to the above mentioned evils. This also created desperation and luck of confidence in the mind of many Africans even to challenge colonial suppression and exploitation.

Where as on the other hand, thanks to African forefathers they deeply explained and propagated the impacts of colonization and budgeted their life to the causes of African people. However in the time of the war of independence, Africa lost its patriots as it was true in the time of occupation. The idea of independence surpassing the sole sovereignty of states, it progressive went over to the unity of Africa so that came up with the organization of African Unity (OAU).

From its inception OAU served as a nucleus body to articulate the interest of the continent through out history. Scrutning the performance of OAU, there might be much more left undone but from the view of the young age of African states from independence, the creation of OAU by itself was a big achievement and a long run particularly for realizing the dreams of visionary Africans. And the evolutionary growth of OAU that gave birth to AU is a dramatic and progressive move. Nowadays, AU is becoming more powerful and sensation in the minds of many Africans.

African Union’s Organizational structure including the African parliament also indicates a blooming future in the path of African societies to democracy and development. On top of this, the African head of states meeting in Accra-Ghana, two months before now, was the most amazing and silence breaker to realize the goals of progressive African independent leaders: The meeting is a big leap and historical to the African future. The concept of the meeting impressed the hearts of almost all Africans and no one of the head of states refused the idea of unity, but the bone of contention was the time and the methodology. This implies the formation of the United States of Africa/USA/ is beyond doubt and inevitable. Besides, the debates over unity are indicative to the progressive elements in the minds of Africans as compared to the dark age of the colonial era where Africa was in a regression trend even from the pre-colonial aboriginal standard.

To conclude, Africa was /is one of the cradles of antique civilization. In addition to the materialistic civilizations, the humanistic civilization in Africa was at encouraging stage before Africa was conquered. The action of Africa was also proactive and progressive. But the whole process was doomed away by the colonial system in which the action of Africans was lamed by the colonial powers to the extend that Africa’s development inclined to regression. It is after independence that the renaissance of Africa came in to existence. Now Africa has become pro-active, and its progressive development has started to flourish.

Workshop to Offer Ways in Combating Corruption in the Infrastructure Sector

Combating Corruption in the Infrastructure Sector

Commonwealth News and Information Service (London)
NEWS
22 August 2007
Posted to the web 22 August 2007

Senior officials from infrastructure and public utilities sectors around the Commonwealth will attend a five-day workshop to look at ways of curbing the incidence of corruption in the planning, construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure services.

The workshop, organised by the Commonwealth Secretariat and the Water, Engineering and Development Centre (WEDC) of Loughborough University in the United Kingdom, will be held from 17 to 21 September 2007 at the University.

Infrastructure services include water supply, sanitation, drainage, access roads and paving, transport, solid waste management, street lighting and community buildings.

Participants are expected to learn ways of identifying different types of corruption in the sector, as well as the instruments, tools and strategies to monitor, measure and tackle corruption.

Dr Deryck Brown, Governance and Development Adviser in the Secretariat’s Governance and Institutional Development Division (GIDD), said: “Infrastructure services are central to the overarching UN Millennium Development Goal of eradicating poverty.

“The presence of corruption in the delivery of services compromises the livelihoods of the poor by reducing the effectiveness and efficiency of the service and often results in inequity in service provision.

“Corruption in the delivery of infrastructure, in particular, has further implications for the cost of the services, the resources available for the maintenance or rehabilitation of systems, the extension of service provision, and public confidence in the service provider.”

Dr Brown added that this is the second such workshop delivered with WEDC: “The first was held in September 2006 and was attended by 19 participants from 16 Commonwealth countries, and attracted attention from non-Commonwealth countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam and Iraq.”

He stated participants had commented favourably on last year’s workshop. Helen Ambo, Acting Permanent Secretary in Dominica’s Ministry of Public Works and Utilities, said that she found it so useful that she has nominated two of her senior officials to attend this year’s course.

The partnership between GIDD and WEDC builds on a UK Department for International Development-funded research grant on ‘Accountability Arrangements to Combat Corruption in the Delivery of Infrastructure Services’.

GIDD has been working with Professor M Sohail Khan of WEDC since 2005 to develop a practical workshop that would meet the needs of senior officials responsible for anti-corruption and/or infrastructure projects.

The 2007 course will also see the introduction of an anti-corruption practitioners’ toolkit for use in the field when participants have returned to their respective countries. After the workshop, GIDD will evaluate the experience of delivering the workshop over two years and consider whether it is time to move to cascading the course to regional level.

August 18, 2007

Call to the West to STOP Controlling African Development… or Another Reason Why China is Winning in Africa


Environment, development and Africa

Special CFACT feature article published in the magazine of the European People’s Party



The following article was recently published in the special “Energy, Environment and Politics” Autumn 2006 edition of “European View,” the magazine of the European People’s Party in Brussels. The full magazine can be read online at http://www.epp.eu/dbimages/pdf/_copy_4..As European nations adjust their internal and external policies regarding energy, the environment, and economic development to accommodate the needs and desires of the new European Union, there is a great opportunity to ensure that the new policies will be beneficial to the developing world, and in particular to African nations that were once European colonies.

Clearly, most Africans have not benefited much from the worldwide economic boom that has lifted many in the Pacific Rim and other formerly poor nations out of poverty and into the middle class. Indeed, Africa today has about 13% of the world’s people but accounts for only 2% of world gross domestic product – and the trend is downward, not upward. Reversing this trend will be good news for worldwide economic growth and for the environment. By playing a significant role in turning Africa around, Europe could likewise reap significant benefits.

The answer to Africa’s needs, however, is not more handouts, or even aid forgiveness, as was recommended at the June 2005 G-8 summit in Gleneagles. Rather, it is in creating a new class of entrepreneurs from among the poorest Africans and affirming the value of market principles, a reliance on sound science, and a re-commitment to the Judeo-Christian principle that “all men are created equal, endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, [among which] are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

This paper will show that, despite Europe’s presumed good intentions, Africans are increasingly uncomfortable with the vestiges of the colonialist mentality, whether it be environmental mandates or restrictions on economic development (sometimes the two are intertwined). These holdover policies and practices are hurting economic growth – and thus the development of indigenous environmental movements – all across Africa.

Unless Europeans undertake a major change in course, there is evidence that Africa may be seduced by new, possibly less scrupulous, trading partners. Fortunately, there is a path that fits in with the stated desires of many Africans — a new approach to development that focuses on people-to-people, rather than government-to-government, relationships. By taking this path, Europe can greatly expand economic and political freedom in many African nations and also regain prestige and respect among African people themselves ? while also realizing significant financial benefits for individual European investors.

Self-Determination for Europe – But Not for Africa?

As Europeans turn toward creating a common approach to major policy issues, the temptation is to be Euro-centric, especially when addressing issues such as energy, economic development, and environmental policy. Meanwhile, African nations today are beset with major obstacles to achieving the kind of political and economic freedom upon which good societies are built. Among these problems are low savings and investment rates, unstable economic and political institutions, limited quantity and quality of infrastructure and human capital, the prevalence of disease, and negative perceptions on the part of international investors.

History shows that, rather than advancing freedom, a prerequisite for truly constructive development, the demands of Western institutions when addressing these issues have typically downplayed the role of the individual and instead pressured (or allowed) governments to institute policies that further limit individual rights. As a result, the West has become to Africa like the overprotective mother who refuses to let her children grow up and then blames them for not exhibiting all the vestiges of maturity. Worse, Western policies have often left Africans enslaved once again by locally grown dictators (of the sort that first sold their brothers and sisters into slavery).

A major reason, according to economist William Easterly, for the failure of Africa to prosper has been that planners at the World Bank, the United Nations, and other Western institutions of power have never motivated people on the ground to carry out the good intentions formulated in their “marvelous plans.” Easterly’s insights belie the premise, laid down by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, that “the expansion of freedom is … both the primary end and the principal means of development.”

Indeed, many Africans today recognize that the West’s good intentions have had negative results. They see the root cause of these misfires in the failure, both yesterday and today, of the West to listen to the voice of freedom-seeking Africans. Instead, the West has sought to impose its own priorities upon Africa.

Afonso Dhalakama, president of Centrist Democrat International Africa, notes that most of the economic development in sub-Saharan Africa during the colonial period focused on meeting the needs of colonial powers. In the push toward independence that followed World War II, the departing Europeans typically (and blindly) turned over power to communist movements or parties that continued to stifle the cries of most Africans for both political and economic freedom.

Today, there are new threats to Africans’ dreams of freedom, none more daunting than that posed by China, whose president has stated, “Chinese cooperation [with Africa] does not depend on good governance and democracy in African countries.” Dhalakama’s great fear is that Europeans, by insisting that Africans do everything Europe’s way, are opening the door wide for the Chinese to exploit Africa’s resources to fuel China’s development and further frustrate the advance of democracy in Africa.

Dhalakama urged Europeans today to assist Africans in developing political parties that will be responsive to the will and the needs of their own people and to support Africa’s growing economies by undergirding and strengthening national polities. Europe will benefit from providing such assistance, but could lose heavily by failing to strengthen indigenous and free African institutions.

Expressing a similar viewpoint, former Eritrean finance minister Gebreselassie Tesfamichael responded to the June 2005 Live 8 campaign (and the nearby G8 summit in Gleneagles) with these highly charged words:

The fundamental problem in Africa is not lack of resources, but the failure of political leadership. The modern African state is a colonial creation, extractive in its design. Its mission was not to serve the people, but to dominate and exploit them. Despite independence, and despite improvements brought by numerous democratic elections, the nature of that state remains intact.

Tesfamichael also expressed his frustration that the international aid community insisted in imposing its own guidelines for Africa to follow in pursuing development. “We wanted something different. We wanted a partnership rather than a donor-client relationship,” and so Eritrea refused to follow guidelines mandated by the International Monetary Fund. Instead of micro-management from thousands of miles away, Eritrea conducted reforms dictated by the realities on the ground and grew its economy by 7% a year during the period 1992-97.

Cameroonian journalist Jean-Claude Shanda Tonme likewise wondered how Live 8′s supporters had so clearly failed to understand that “Africa’s real problem is the lack of freedom of expression, the usurpation of power, the brutal oppression,” and that none of these problems can be solved with debt relief, food aid, or an invasion of experts.

World energy statistics bear out the perception that Africa’s resources are being exploited today nearly as much as in the colonial era. World Energy Council Deputy Secretary General Jan Murray reported in 2001 that two-thirds of all energy consumption in Africa came from high-polluting and disease-causing appropriate technologies – wood, charcoal, dung, and crop residue – that Europe now disdains. Moreover, Africa’s per capita energy consumption was very low, and most of the commercial energy the continent produces was being consumed elsewhere. In short, little of Africa’s commercial energy was being used to advance freedom on the continent.

Europeans clearly understand the value of energy resources. Andris Piebalgs said in the inaugural issue of European View, “Without reliable, affordable and safe energy, our economy would simply come to a halt. In other words, we depend on energy for our prosperity.” But European policies toward Africa have ignored (or rejected) the potential for building prosperity in Africa based on such a model. Africa has huge reserves of oil and gas and coal and the potential for hydropower and even nuclear power to provide locally usable energy, yet Europe has balked at helping Africans develop these resources.

The West has also taken a peculiarly jejune, yet pharisaic, attitude toward Africa’s manifold health problems. For example, malaria was virtually eradicated in Europe and the United States through the use of the pesticide DDT, but for decades the West has imposed a virtual ban on DDT use for any purpose. Meanwhile, malaria attacks 400 million Africans a year, killing well over a million and leaving countless others debilitated for life.

Semiannual indoor residual spraying of small amounts of DDT is a proven weapon that dramatically reduces the incidence and severity of malaria without harming the environment, but Western financial institutions, in collaboration with environmentalists, have long insisted that Africans rely solely on bed nets and expensive after-infection treatments to fight this killer.

It has taken a worldwide campaign, led by Nobel laureates Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Dr. Norman Borlaug, Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, American civil rights pioneer Roy Innis, and others – sparked by African voices – to effectuate a major change in policy in the United States (in May 2006) on the use of DDT to fight malaria. The World Health Organization has also switched sides on DDT, but the battle continues. Many African nations still fear that the World Bank or individual European nations will not renege on past promises to ban agricultural imports from nations using DDT to protect human lives.

Africans are also at odds with the West over agricultural issues that range from protectionist tariffs and farm subsidies (in Africa as well as the West) that leave African farm goods uncompetitive in Western markets, to the angst over biotech foods. Neither the EU nor the U.S. budged an inch at the recent World Trade Organization talks in Geneva, though changes have been discussed for years.

Economist Thomas R. DeGregori has been a major voice supporting green biotechnology as a way to help Africa raise yields and protect plants from disease. DeGregori argues that media-led opposition to the use of green biotechnology in Africa has deep roots in misguided beliefs about science, agriculture, and food production that go back two centuries. Kenyan biotech advocate Florence Wambugu likewise contends that Africa must pursue biotechnology both to feed its growing populations and to solve its environmental problems. Africans, she insists, “must [be allowed to] participate as stakeholders” in biotechnology and other emerging technologies so that they can have some control over their development and use.

Africa desperately needs to increase its food supply: Malnutrition rates are falling worldwide but are rising dramatically in sub-Saharan Africa. Whether biotech is or is not the way to go, actions to suppress agricultural biotechnology in Africa provide yet another example of how non-Africans are making decisions that affect the very survival of Africans.

On yet another front, the highly acclaimed Equator Principles, which require Western financial institutions to meet the social and environmental policies of the World Bank, may well be discouraging much-needed economic development in Africa’s undercapitalized nations. The Chinese, of course, have not adopted these principles – nor have many rogue nations with which they are gaining influence.

As Africa Develops – Is Anybody Listening?

Thanks in part to the almost universal access to cellular telephones and the Internet, Africa is maturing politically and economically, even in countries where oppression is widespread. As Africans, even in remote locations, gain ready access to real-world information (from war news to stock quotes), the old American pop song becomes applicable: “How you gonna keep ?em down on the farm after they’ve seen Paree?” European influence in Africa is thus at a true turning point. Many Africans are tired of 400 years of colonialism and its ongoing vestiges in the post-colonial era, and others are responding to their cries to “let my people go.”

Europe stands to benefit greatly by supporting increased political and economic freedom in African nations. A major reason is that Africans for centuries have been educated in European academic institutions, learned European customs and languages, and interacted daily with European businesses, governments, and non-governmental organizations. There is tremendous untapped potential.

C. K. Prahalad argues that we must stop thinking of the poor as victims or as a burden and start recognizing them as resilient and creative entrepreneurs and value-conscious consumers. Serving the world’s poor will provide wonderful opportunities for innovations that focus on conserving resources through eliminating, reducing, or recycling wastes, because the poor cannot afford to pay for wastage. These innovations can then be transferred to markets in the developed world. Better still, as poor consumers and entrepreneurs gain experience in market mechanisms, they may well be able to transform their societies and economies dramatically in a very short time frame.

Bringing an end to, or even greatly shrinking, African poverty is a daunting proposition. Yet changing the way Europe and the West look at and deal with Africa’s poor requires some major changes in perspective and philosophy – beginning with a re-assessment of the nature of man and of the state.

The American Revolution was largely influenced by the writings of John Locke, whose political philosophy promoted individual rights and limited constitutional government as the basis of freedom and economic security. Building on Locke’s vision, Thomas Jefferson penned these immortal words found in the U.S. Declaration of Independence:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness ? that to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

Nearly a century later, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, believing Locke’s worldview would divide humanity by focusing on self-interest, individual rights, and property, set forth his own “Social Contract” in which the “General Will” of the people is embodied in the power of the state. Thus the state can both create and distribute rights to whom it pleases – and is in effect the ultimate authority. In defending the American vision, James Madison agreed that the hearts of men are wicked but believed that in a free society the evil machinations of various factions would be canceled out through the political process, leaving the good to triumph.

Recently, the ideals of Locke, Jefferson, and Madison were incorporated into the Cornwall Declaration on Environmental Stewardship, an eloquent document which encapsulates a Judeo-Christian view of environment and development, but whose principles are applicable well beyond the faith community. Cornwall states that many people mistakenly view humans as principally consumers and polluters rather than as producers and stewards and thus ignore the human potential to add to the Earth’s abundance. Thus, many oppose economic progress in the name of environmental stewardship, failing to recognize the simple truth that the more prosperous a society, the more likely it is to make environmental protection a high priority.

Cornwall further asserts that free and prosperous (and informed) citizens have the potential for very beneficial management of the Earth’s resources, and that nature does not fully “know best.” This recognition, after all, forms the very basis for holding any faith in beneficial environmental stewardship. Locke and his modern-day disciple, Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto, would hold that the private ownership of property is a key motivator for sound stewardship of land, water, and other resources. Common sense and empirical data both show that people take better care of property when they have an ownership interest.

Finally, Cornwall argues that some environmental concerns are without foundation or greatly exaggerated, while other critical environmental issues are ignored or downplayed. A major reason for this (for example, eschewing DDT’s benefits in combating malaria) is the failure – whether conscious or unconscious – to consider the environmental impacts on specific human populations in setting environmental policies.

Thus, based upon Cornwall’s prudent perspectives, perhaps the most vital thing that Westerners can do today in Africa is to humbly accept Prahalad’s observation that the poor are “resilient and creative entrepreneurs and value-conscious consumers” from whom we can learn much and gain much. Westerners need to stop dictating and start listening to the hopes and aspirations and plans of these thoughtful and energetic human beings who yearn for freedom to build out their own visions for tomorrow. This means Europe and the West must move from a Rousseauian to a Lockean mindset – one that seeks to address the needs of individuals rather than one that pursues political policies and agendas to impose on them.

The stakes are high. African nations could simply allow the Chinese and other like-minded entrepreneurial neo-colonialist states access to its markets, generating economic development but without any commitment to expanding human freedom or protecting the environment. One thing is certain: Africa will not long remain under the heavy thumb of their European “parents” who deny them the freedom to make their own decisions about things that matter.

A New Approach to African Development

Europeans might take a serious look at the new Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a creation of the U.S. State Department. Under this new program, the U.S. has set guidelines for aid eligibility that require nations to meet standards for ruling justly, investing in individual people, and encouraging economic and political freedom (including freedom for women). The rules require nationwide stakeholder meetings to identify in-country barriers to development, ensure the participation of civil society, and make public the intended uses for aid dollars. These reforms should foster greater accountability for those in charge of aid-funded projects.

In Madagascar, the MCC approved a US$110 million grant to help formalize that nation’s land tenure system, modernize its land registry, expand land title services to rural citizens, improve the national banking system, and establish a body that identifies investment opportunities for rural citizens to reach markets and trains farmers and other entrepreneurs in production, management, and marketing techniques.

These are all institutional reforms that address afore-stated problems of low savings and investment rates, unstable economic and political institutions, and the limited quantity and quality of infrastructure and human capital. If implemented, these reforms, which require accountability at every step in the process, should increase the confidence of individual investors that their profits will not be stolen and thus expedite investment and business development.

The Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow, an international NGO which works in the U.S., Europe, and other nations on issues of environment and development, is also pursuing a program that utilizes Lockean principles in a constructive manner. CFACT is developing a new international development program that is modeled in large part on work done on a very small scale by faith-based and other charitable organizations on the ground in developing nations, and in part on activities reported on by Prahalad and others. The program begins with encouraging people in local communities to devise their own plans for economic growth and environmental protection and then joining with them as partners and advisors to help them achieve success.

This Social Entrepreneurship and Free-Market Environmentalism Demonstration (SEFED) program builds on the time-honored principle that, unless people who live in developing nations take ownership of their economies and their environment, the next fifty years of foreign “assistance” is likely to be no more successful than the last half century’s efforts. SEFED’s initial efforts have confirmed that de Soto was right on the money when he stated …

The cities of the Third World and the former communist countries are teeming with entrepreneurs … The inhabitants of these countries possess talent, enthusiasm, and an astonishing ability to wring a profit out of practically nothing…. Most of the poor already possess the assets they need to make a success of capitalism.

The SEFED program provides an avenue by which Westerners all too accustomed to dealing with the poor from a charitable, paternalistic viewpoint (or worse, from the old opportunistic exploitation viewpoint) can learn to interact with intelligent, motivated, yet still poor, entrepreneurs and community builders as equal partners, supporting projects conceived of and being developed principally by people whose lifestyles have not included the myriad of amenities to which most Westerners are accustomed.

Conclusion: Time for a Change

In sum, all that is really needed for Europe to reverse four centuries of unfruitful mentoring of African economic, political, and societal development is a change of heart and of attitude – and the actions that naturally should follow such a rebirth of vision. People who can plead for species preservation on grounds that even the least impressive (from our viewpoint) species may hold the key to significant benefits for humankind and the planet should be able to see the same potential in every human being.

There is so much to be gained, both personally and economically, from expanding our horizons and partnering with people who previously may have been overlooked (or looked down upon), and Europeans are in a particularly advantageous position to take full advantage of these opportunities. The time has come and is indeed near past when Europeans (and others in the West) can begin to ask themselves, what do Africans really want and how can we work together for mutual benefit to ensure that they get what they truly need?

The alternatives to this approach all forebode trouble. Inaction or continued (hard-headed) paternalism will surely allow unscrupulous developers to enter Africa, further despoil the environment and further frustrate the desire of many Africans for freedom and respect as full partners in economic development and environmental protection. But a new engagement with Africans at the ground level will enable them to make their own economic and environmental decisions – decisions that, given Africa’s long history with Europe and the recognition that all humanity wants a healthier, wealthier future and a cleaner world, could foster real change for the better.

The keys, then, are, first, the humility to listen to the ideas and visions of the poor; and, second, the willingness to visualize and assist in bringing to fruition the economic growth and increased political and social freedom that will help the poor achieve their goals. The rewards from such an approach can be great – both for Africa and for Europe, too.

Special thanks to CFACT senior policy analyst Duggan Flanakin who greatly contributed to this article.

August 3, 2007

Should Africa Continue to Be Treated Like a “Victim” By the World

Is It Time to Stop Treating the Continent As a Victim?

SciDev.Net (London)
OPINION
1 August 2007
Posted to the web 2 August 2007

By Katharine Vincent

It is commonly upheld — at least by the media — that Africa is a frontline victim of climate change.

It is true that at the continental scale Africa may suffer because of it is geographic and economic vulnerability. But branding Africa as a victim does a disservice to the many examples of small-scale resilience and adaptive capacity in evidence throughout the continent.

Furthermore, perpetuating the ‘Africa as victim’ myth runs the risk of deflecting attention away from a systematic investigation into how such resistive measures could be expanded to reduce vulnerability.

A more realistic picture

The year 2007 marked the release of the long-awaited fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which looked at the impact of climate change on different parts of the world and their adaptation and vulnerability to its effects.

The report confirms that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents and will be exposed to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change. Agricultural productivity is likely to be constrained by water stress and a decrease in the land area suitable for farming — with a reduction in yields of up to 50 per cent predicted for some parts of the continent by 2020.

But the report also highlights evidence that African people are coping with and adapting to climate variability and change. Although it does not indicate whether these responses will be sufficient in practice to deal with the rate and magnitude of projected change, they provide grounds for optimism.

Still, the press response to the report, both internationally and in Africa, has emphasised the vulnerability of the continent over its potential adaptive capacity.

It is important to recognise that there will be adverse effects, but portraying the continent as helpless legitimises a sense of resignation to the fact that climate change will merely contribute to ongoing poverty and leave Africa on an unavoidable downward trajectory.

Groundwork to reduce vulnerability

The outlook need not be so bleak. We should be attempting to understand the complex coping and adaptation strategies that are in operation and to identify where these are working and where they need to be improved.

Researchers investigating coping and adaptive capacity at different levels on the continent — from household efforts to national strategies covering both social and biophysical systems — have compiled a cohort of studies that exemplify emerging generic processes.

Farmers, for example, are flexible in their livelihood choices, which enable them to respond to weather conditions on a year-by-year basis. In a dry year they may seek alternative pasture for their cattle and irrigate their crops. If a drought is long lasting, male members of the household might migrate to the city in search of alternative employment.

Emerging recognition of the bottlenecks constraining effective adaptation has also promoted research into tools that can be used to reduce vulnerability. For example, seasonal climate forecasting enables both commercial and subsistence farmers to respond on an annual basis to anticipated weather conditions.

Farmers in several southern African countries, including South Africa and Zimbabwe, are currently benefiting from improved information on seasonal weather conditions.

Ecologists and social scientists working on the coupling of physical and social systems have highlighted the need for adaptive co-management that recognises the interrelationship between the physical and human environment. A variety of institutions, working at local through to national and regional levels in Africa, are embracing this attitude.

They are taking a more holistic approach to development, to reducing the risk of disasters, and to mitigating and adapting to climate change. This includes provision of national weather services and of a growing number of disaster-management agencies, which are being set up following the introduction of national disaster-management policies and plans.

Confronting the situation

Faced with the media’s despair, we can hardly blame African policy-makers for feeling helpless against climate change and for not believing that adaptation can be achieved. As a result, policies focusing on national climate change are scant and weak where they do exist, although the issues are recognised to varying degrees in formulating policy in related spheres, such as water supply, agriculture and disaster management.

Taking a more proactive approach to adaptation — recognising the continent’s strengths and identifying weaknesses and obstacles in the way of achieving it — is a much more constructive response to the IPCC’s fourth assessment report.

It is one that should encourage Africans to seek the most effective means of help from themselves and others, thereby ensuring that vulnerability in the face of future climate change is reduced.

Katharine Vincent is a postdoctoral researcher with the ReVAMP research group at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, and a contributing author to the IPCC fourth assessment report.

July 24, 2007

Hope Mixed with Concern Greets China’s Growing Prominence in Africa

Hope, Concern Greet China’s Growing Prominence

Inter Press Service (Johannesburg)
NEWS
23 July 2007
Posted to the web 23 July 2007

By Michael Deibert
Paris
While China’s growing trade and investment flows to Africa have sparked a sometimes contentious debate with the United States and Europe over who has the continent’s best interests at heart, a closer look at the dynamic developing reveals a political landscape where the rhetoric is rarely in line with the reality, observers say.

When a recent World Bank report revealed that trade between Africa, the European Union (EU) and the U.S. is nearly equalled by that between Africa and Asia, a closer look at the numbers brought the picture of China’s involvement in Africa into even starker relief.

African exports to China grew 48 percent annually between 1999 and 2004, with 10 percent of all sub-Saharan exports now destined for the Asian behemoth. Likewise, as a whole, over the last five years Asian exports to Africa increased at an annual rate of 18 percent, higher than that of any other region, including the EU.

China’s deepening involvement in Africa has been driven by its domestic demand for the natural resources and raw materials that are needed to support its population of 1.3 billion and a booming economy — the country has the second-largest economy after the U.S. and the world’s largest current account surplus nearly 180 billion dollars.

It is a development that is profoundly — and, many believe, permanently — changing the nature of Africa’s relationship with the former colonial powers of the EU, and re-writing the nature of African realpolitik. But at present the EU remains Africa’s largest trading partner with trade totalling more than 200 billion euros in 2006.

“I think it’s going to dramatically change the diplomatic and economic landscape,” says Mamadou Diouf, a noted West African scholar who directs the Institute for African Studies at Columbia University. “In the previous world defined by the Cold War, the pressure was much more ideological, Africa had to align itself ideologically rather than come up with its own agenda. Today they are negotiating between different choices and possibilities.”

The seeming lack of conditionality to China’s aid, such as the absence of any stipulation based on anti-corruption measures, as well as the speed with which it is dispersed have both proved attractive to African governments with varying degrees of accountability and respect for human rights.

“China’s zero-condition policy is appealing to a country which doesn’t have very transparent reporting and budgetary mechanisms,” says Katherine Constabile, an Africa analyst with the New York-based Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy.

Among the more controversial aspects of China’s involvement in Africa is that of the PetroChina company, a subsidiary of the state-controlled China National Petroleum Corporation, which owns a major stake in Sudan’s national oil consortia, and maintains extensive operations there.

To help meet its demand for fuel, China purchased more than half of Sudan’s oil exports in 2006. Critics charge that profits from these sales have enabled the Khartoum government to buy weapons with which to continue its military operations — both directly and by proxy — in the nation’s Darfur region.

The Sudanese military and government-aligned Janjaweed militia forces stand accused here of carrying out war crimes against the area’s civilian population. The chaos engulfing Darfur has claimed an estimated 200,000 lives, mainly civilians, since 2003, according to a study published in the journal Science.

Some in Africa, though, despite being skeptical of China’s motives, see a certain amount of selective memory in the West’s position.

“Both the U.S. and Western Europe, particularly over the last two decades, have linked their involvement in Africa — whether trade or other — with demands for reform or better governance and a more democratic substance,” says Ayesha Kajee, programme director with the International Human Rights Exchange (IHRE) at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa.

“But elections have come to represent the be all and end all, with very few (African) governments paying more than lip service to them,” Kajee says. “When it comes to the institutions of democracy, and instituting democratic practice in society, the U.S. and Europe haven’t been half as vocal.”

Western powers, even in recent years, have appeared to be willing to turn a forgiving eye to questionable regimes when the moment suited them.

In 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush invited Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi to the White House, and then conducted a high-profile meeting with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni outside of Kampala in 2003. Both men had also enjoyed warm relations with the administration of former president Bill Clinton.

Zenawi’s government has been accused of massacring nearly 200 protestors around the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa in violent upheaval following disputed May 2005 elections, and routinely jails opposition politicians. He has been named ‘Predator of Press Freedom’ by the journalist’s advocacy group Reporters Sans Frontières.

During elections in 2005, Museveni arrested Uganda’s main opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, and posted heavily-armed government partisans around the court where his bail hearing was being held.

At the same time, the EU seems willing to engage in a bit of its own non-conditionality to adapt its Africa involvement to this new reality with the announcement that it will invite Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe to an EU-Africa summit scheduled in Lisbon this coming December, despite Mugabe being the subject of an EU travel ban.

Mugabe stands accused of gross human rights abuses and economic mismanagement in his 27-year rule of his country, once one of Africa’s richest. Zimbabwe’s inflation is now believed by unofficial estimates to measure around 15,000 percent. A recent report by the New York-based group Human Rights Watch concluded that “police routinely arrest and detain political opponents and government critics, and then abuse them in custody.”

The African Union (AU), a body of 53 African states formed in 2001 with the ostensible aim of integrating the region’s currency and its defence forces, as well as promoting human rights, had threatened to boycott the summit if Mugabe was excluded.

Stepping into this landscape of grey area and compromise, Chinese President Hu Jintao has visited 17 countries on the continent during the last year, making him the most frequent visitor among heads of state.

“The EU knows how much influence China has in Africa, they know that it’s profound and that it has implications on EU-Africa relations,” says Veronika Tywuschik, an academic researcher based in the Netherlands currently exploring Chinese-African relations.

In a June report ‘From Cairo to Lisbon — The EU-Africa Strategic Partnership’, the European Commission, which serves as the executive body of the European Union, called for a reassessment of EU-Africa relations based on “a genuine partnership of equals.”

The report went on to say that the new understanding between the two regions should “promote peace and security, governance and human rights, trade and regional and continental integration in Africa” as well as to “facilitate and promote a broad-based and wide-ranging people-centred partnership for all people in Africa and Europe.”

In an almost musical corollary, though, in late June, China’s state-controlled China Development Bank commenced the first phase, measuring a billion dollars, of its 5-billion-dollar China-Africa Development Fund.

Belying China’s supposed carte blanche to its African counterparts, this aid in fact comes with many strings attached, though none, perhaps attractively for some governments, related to human rights or anti-corruption.

The conditions include that the aid’s availability will be restricted solely to investment in Chinese enterprises and projects in Africa, and that 70 percent of the contracts be set aside for Chinese companies, with the rest going to African businesses, many already working with Chinese enterprises.

Despite all the sound and fury, some Africa observers say, what we may be witnessing is the same old networking simply presented in a new wrapping.

“By and large, when you look at foreign interest in Africa, it is still directly linked to geo-strategic concerns,” says Human Rights Exchange’s Kajee.

Jeffrey D. Sachs: “No Development, No Peace”

I only hope that Mr. Sachs reads my proposal for Africa one day and sees that this Project of mine is exactly in keeping with the development that Africa needs TODAY!

Here is his article: 

No Development, No Peace

Mmegi/The Reporter (Gaborone)
COLUMN
23 July 2007
Posted to the web 23 July 2007

By Jeffrey D. Sachs

Anyone interested in peacemaking, poverty reduction, and Africa’s future should read the new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment. This may sound like a technical report on Sudan’s environment, but it is much more. It is a vivid study of how the natural environment, poverty, and population growth can interact to provoke terrible human-made disasters like the violence in Darfur.

When a war erupts, as in Darfur, most policymakers look for a political explanation and a political solution. This is understandable, but it misses a basic point. By understanding the role of geography, climate, and population growth in the conflict, we can find more realistic solutions than if we stick with politics alone.

Extreme poverty is a major cause, and predictor, of violence. The world’s poorest places, like Darfur, are much more likely to go to war than richer places. This is not only common sense, but has been verified by studies and statistical analyses. In the UNEP’s words, “There is a very strong link between land degradation, desertification, and conflict in Darfur.”

Extreme poverty has several effects on conflict. First, it leads to desperation among parts of the population. Competing groups struggle to stay alive in the face of a shortage of food, water, pasture land, and other basic needs. Second, the government loses legitimacy and the support of its citizens. Third, the government may be captured by one faction or another, and then use violent means to suppress rivals.

Darfur, the poorest part of a very poor country, fits that dire pattern. Livelihoods are supported by semi-nomadic livestock-rearing in the north and subsistence farming in the south. It is far from ports and international trade, lacks basic infrastructure such as roads and electricity, and is extremely arid. It has become even drier in recent decades because of a decline in rainfall, which is probably the result, at least in part, of man-made climate change, caused mostly by energy use in rich countries.

Declining rainfall contributed directly or indirectly to crop failures, the encroachment of the desert into pasturelands, the decline of water and grassland for livestock, and massive deforestation. Rapid population growth – from around one million in 1920 to around seven million today – made all of this far more deadly by slashing living standards.

The result has been increasing conflict between pastoralists and farmers, and the migration of populations from the north to the south. After years of simmering conflicts, clashes broke out in 2003 between rival ethnic and political groups, and between Darfur rebels and the national government, which in turn has supported brutal militias in “scorched earth” policies, leading to massive death and displacement.

While international diplomacy focused on peacekeeping and on humanitarian efforts to save the lives of displaced and desperate people, peace in Darfur can be neither achieved nor sustained until the underlying crises of poverty, environmental degradation, declining access to water, and chronic hunger are addressed. Stationing soldiers will not pacify hungry, impoverished, and desperate people.

Only with improved access to food, water, health care, schools, and income-generating livelihoods can peace be achieved. The people of Darfur, Sudan’s government, and international development institutions should urgently search for common ground to find a path out of desperate violence through Darfur’s economic development, helped and supported by the outside world.

The UNEP report, and experiences elsewhere in Africa, suggests how to promote economic development in Darfur. Both people and livestock need assured water supplies. In some areas, this can be obtained through boreholes that tap underground aquifers. In other areas, rivers or seasonal surface runoff can be used for irrigation. In still other areas, longer-distance water pipelines might be needed. In all cases, the world community will have to help pay the tab, since Sudan is too poor to bear the burden on its own.

With outside help, Darfur could increase the productivity of its livestock through improved breeds, veterinary care, collection of fodder, and other strategies. A meat industry could be developed in which Darfur’s pastoralists would multiply their incomes by selling whole animals, meat products, processed goods (such as leather), dairy products, and more. The Middle East is a potentially lucrative nearby market. To build this export market, Darfur will need help with transport and storage, cell phone coverage, power, veterinary care, and technical advice.

Social services, including health care and disease control, education, and adult literacy programmes should also be promoted. Living standards could be improved significantly and rapidly through low-cost targeted investments in malaria control, school feeding programmes, rainwater harvesting for drinking water, mobile health clinics, and boreholes for livestock and irrigation in appropriate locations. Cell phone coverage could revolutionise communications for sparse populations in Darfur’s vast territory, with major benefits for livelihoods, physical survival, and the maintenance of family ties.

The only way to sustainable peace is through sustainable development. If we are to reduce the risk of war, we must help impoverished people everywhere, not only in Darfur, to meet their basic needs, protect their natural environments, and get onto the ladder of economic development. (Project Syndicate)

*Jeffrey Sachs is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.

Do New Trade Deals Mean Africa “Loses” while EU “Gains”??

New Trade Deals – Continent to Lose Out As EU Gains

East African (Nairobi)
ANALYSIS
24 July 2007
Posted to the web 24 July 2007

By Gichinga Ndirangu
Nairobi
As Africa’s leaders met in Accra, Ghana, last week to consider ways of consolidating continental unity through increased trade, pertinent questions were being raised over the impact that a new trade arrangement between the European Union and the 75-member ACP trading bloc will have on regional integration.

At least four regional trading blocs in Africa – Comesa, Ecowas, EAC and SADC – are working towards establishing Customs Unions to reduce their dependence on the EU market and take advantage of regional economies of scale.

But as the clock ticks towards the end of 2007, the deadline for concluding negotiations between the ACP and EU, uncertainty looms on what will happen if the deadline is not met and the impact that a deal will have on the trade fortunes of individual countries within the regional blocs.

A deal between the ACP and EU will usher in a new trade framework based on reciprocity that will require agreement on uniform tariffs on at least 80 per cent of goods traded. This will effectively end years of preferential access enjoyed by the ACP countries, under which their goods entered the EU market duty-free even as EU exports to ACP markets attracted tariffs.

The current negotiations have been necessitated by the imminent expiry of the waiver granted by the WTO, which allowed the EU-ACP preferential trade arrangement to continue until the end of 2007. This has been viewed as discriminating against non-ACP members and in violation of WTO trade rules; it is also implicit that the EU wants a share of the pie by increasing exports to the ACP markets on more favourable terms.

But the entry of EU goods on more favourable terms has raised concerns that more efficient EU firms and subsidised agricultural goods will out-compete local enterprises involved in value-added production and farmers, thus limiting the benefits of regional integration to individual countries.

THE EU believes that the economic partnership agreement (EPA) negotiations will strengthen regional integration through more predictable trade policies, but the limited time left to conclude negotiations and the serious capacity constraints facing many ACP countries have raised concern that they actually risk slowing down regional integration.

A major concern is the isolation of members of the same regional trading blocs forced to negotiate under different EPA configurations, which now creates the risk of members of one regional bloc committing to different tariffs and trade liberalisation measures from those agreed upon under regional blocs.

For instance, Tanzania, though a member of the East African Community, is negotiating under the Southern African Development Community (SADC) while Kenya and Uganda negotiate under the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) configuration.

Yet, even as EPA negotiations raise mounting concern over their potential impact on the African trade blocs, the reality is that integration efforts in most regions have been slow due to cumbersome border controls, inefficient Customs administrations and poor transport infrastructure, which have limited intra-regional trade to an average 10 per cent for individual countries.

BUT DESPITE these difficulties, regional trade for some countries, like Kenya, has grown. A total of 49 per cent of Kenya’s exports are now destined for other African countries, dominated by the Comesa region, while the EU takes up 25 per cent of the country’s exports.

However, the EU still remains an important market destination for many ACP countries as a result of limited intra-regional trade. For instance, whereas the EU absorbs 49 per cent of Ghana’s exports, the country exports an insignificant 2.6 per cent to neighbouring Benin – a situation replicated in many other African countries.

Even as the EU market remains a prime destination, it is ridden by uncertainties over constantly changing criteria of eligibility, especially from EU consumers and the private sector. Strict sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures, pesticide traceability criteria and other health certification standards are among the most challenging non-tariff barriers to trade facing exports into the EU.

Under EPAs, the different regional configurations will be expected to liberalise at least 80 per cent of their trade over an average 12-year period, even though many African countries favour a time frame pegged on the achievement of specified development indicators rather than arbitrary timelines. This approach is intended to allow local enterprises prepare adequately for competition from EU firms.

The Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has warned that the EU stands to benefit the most from a reciprocal trade arrangement with the ACP countries. In particular, the EU would benefit from improved access to regional markets, while African countries are likely to lose out on intra-regional trade.

FOR INSTANCE, intra-regional trade in the Comesa region is expected to decline by 5.8 per cent, which translates into a loss of $242 million. On its part, the EU stands to increase exports to Comesa to the tune of $1,152 million under a new trade arrangement based on reciprocity.

The situation is replicated in West Africa, where the ECA estimates that Ecowas countries could lose trade worth $365 million to EU competitors, who are expected to increase their exports by an estimated $1.87 billion into this regional market.

These trends emphasise the relative efficiency of EU firms over local enterprises, which will result in increased presence of EU products in their markets, hence eating into the share of individual country exports within these markets.

Indeed, with an anticipated elimination of existing tariffs on at least 80 per cent of the ACP’s trade with the EU, it is estimated that regional trade in ACP countries will decline by about 22 per cent, which will translate into a loss of jobs and investment in different regions.

Rwanda is, for instance, expected to increase its imports from the EU from the current 27.4 per cent to 32.2 per cent, even though a large number of these imports could be sourced locally and hence help augment trade in industrial goods. The ECA warns that, “This threatens to weaken regional integration efforts as Comesa countries could significantly lose out to the benefit of the EU countries, especially Belgium, France, Germany and Netherlands.”

KENYA’S DEVELOPMENT strategy, which is increasingly shifting emphasis to regional markets, is also expected to experience the effects of the EU’s foray into key regional markets like Comesa, which accounted for an estimated 67 per cent of the country’s manufactured exports (excluding agro-processed products) in 2003 compared with 9 per cent to the EU market.

Currently, Kenya’s trade with Comesa stands at nearly Ksh80 billion ($1.2 billion), an increase of Ksh19.3 billion ($288 million) over the 2005 earnings totaling Ksh60.7 billion ($906 million). This has made the region Kenya’s most significant trading partner.

However, as the main destination for Kenya’s agricultural exports, the EU remains a significant market, accounting for 25 per cent of total exports, while Africa takes up 49 per cent. A full 37 per cent of Kenya’s total exports to Africa go to the Comesa region.

THE KENYA Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (Kippra) estimates that Kenya stands to lose 15 per cent of its regional trade under an EPA. It adds that Kenya will lose out to the EU, especially in exports of manufactured products to the EAC and Comesa.

“This will undermine the country’s trade in value-added goods and increase dependence on primary exports, narrow the range of products that Kenya currently trades in as well as the diversity of its trading partners,” observes Kippra.

Given the fears that a broad liberalisation of trade with the EU could adversely impact on intra-regional trade, negotiators must try for a less ambitious liberalisation, excluding higher-value products traded among individual African countries, even as the EU seeks a more ambitious regime encompassing broad tariff reduction.

Gichinga Ndirangu is a lawyer and trade policy analyst based in Nairobi

July 19, 2007

President Kufuor Urges U.S. Investors to Look Beyond Oil

Kufuor Urges U.S. Investors to Look Beyond Oil

BuaNews (Tshwane)
NEWS
19 July 2007
Posted to the web 19 July 2007
Accra
Ghana’s head of state has urged private sector operators from the United States to increase their investments in Africa beyond the extractive industries of oil and precious minerals.

Addressing the Sixth African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Forum Wednesday, President John Agyekum Kufuor identified agriculture, processing, manufacturing and tourism as some key areas that they could put their money into.

This, said Mr Kufuor, would assist in technology transfer and build the continent’s capacity to become more competitive and effective partners in trade.

Additionally, investors chould also look at the re-location of industries and outsourcing Information Communication Technology (ICT) contracts to the region, he told the three-day forum.

The meeting is also providing a platform for trade ministers from 39 AGOA-qualified countries in sub-Saharan Africa, representatives of the private sector, civil society groups and US officials to discuss ways of increasing US-Africa trade.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act is a US Trade Act that enhances US market access for 39 Sub-Saharan African countries.

The Act originally covered the period from October 2000 to September 2008, but amendments signed into law by President George w. Bush in July 2004 further extended AGOA to 2015.

The theme for this year’s AGOA Forum is: “As Trade Grows, Africa Prospers: Optimizing the Benefits Under AGOA.”

AGOA opens up the US market to eligible countries to export more than 6,400 duty-free and quotation-free products, estimated at more than 10 trillion USD without reciprocity.

Imports from Africa under this initiative totalled 44.2 billion USD last year, a five-fold increase over 2001, when the programme began. The increase involved mostly crude oil and apparel exports.

The programme ends in 2015 and this, President Kufuor said, must be extended by five years to give Africa space to take full advantage of the opportunity.

“Given the time constraint and the very serious capacity challenges, we must admit, Africa can hardly exploit the benefits of this huge initiative anywhere to the full.

“I will therefore appeal, first to the US Government to extend the time of AGOA to 20 years, then to the countries in Africa as well as our development partners in the US to design and implement a specific and efficacious vehicle targeted at empowering African nations in terms of capacity building.”

President Kufuor said AGOA benefits must not be seen only from the perspective of the African.

He quoted the statement made by President Bush, while signing the AGOA Acceleration Act in 2004 that, “When America sells to Africa, it means employment for somebody in America” and said the programme, should therefore work both ways to everyone’s advantage.

The Head of the US Delegation, Susan Schwab, said the US was determined to serve as a strategic partner with Africa and would not stop, until the continent has realised its enormous potentials.

She noted that if the region could increase its share of the global trade, which stands at two per cent, by a single percentage, it would be generating 70 billion USD annually.

This would be about three times the amount of development assistance it has been receiving.

Ms Schwab spoke of the need for enhanced intra-African trade and South-South trading and re-affirmed the US commitment to reducing agricultural trade distortions.

Ms Schwab, who is the Trade Adviser to President Bush, described the future of Africa as full of hope saying, there was now a new breed of political leaders who were determined to turn the economic fortunes of the continent around. – BuaNews-NNN

July 17, 2007

Mbeki “Lectures” on African Unity and Integration.

In Defence of Yar’Adua’s Speech – Unity And Integration in Africa

Vanguard (Lagos)
DOCUMENT
17 July 2007
Posted to the web 17 July 2007

By Thabo Mbeki

A LECTURE DELIVERED BY THE PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA, THABO MBEKI, AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE COAST, GHANA, 4TH JULY 2007:

Guy Arnold observes in is book: Africa – A Modern History, that: “At the beginning of the 1960′s, Africa was the world’s most precarious region, its vast geographic centre was ‘empty’ of power, its northern and southern extremities (Algeria and South Africa) in the grip of forces that appeared irreconcilable to the rest of the continent. Its newly independent States with their fragile infrastructure and miniscule economies desperately required help, but help that would not be accompanied by political demands and ‘strings’. Political power depends upon economic strength, and economic strength was what Africa lacked. There were also complex psychological problems associated with independence: African nationalist leaders had to demand and take independence, they could never appear just to receive it. Moreover, the scars of colonialism ran deep for, as Nigeria’s Dr. Azikiwe had said back in 1948: ‘My country groans under a system which makes it impossible for us to develop our personalities to the full.’ And, as another young nationalist said to a European at this time: ‘You have never known what it is to live under colonialism. It’s humiliating’.” (P55, ibid)

Indeed, the former colonial powers were not prepared to let Africa find a development path on her own. In the midst of the Cold War, the western countries, unashamedly and unapologeti-cally, interfered and intervened directly in the internal affairs of independent African countries, resorting, in some instances, to violence and assassinations of those deemed to be against their interests.

Thus, neo-colonialism was not merely a descriptive political term but an actual lived experience of many Africans who had to content with this new insidious, but, still deadly phenomenon.

The fragile infrastructure and miniscule economies that Arnold talks about meant that many African countries were forced to agree to economic aid measures which were, however, accompanied by political demands and manipulations as well as both political and economic strings, which, in some instances, had invariably defined the destinies of some of our countries. Those African leaders bold enough to refuse these forms of neo-colonialism became the targets of the powerful nations of the North and their collaborators on the continent. It would, indeed, be disingenuous to suggest that the same phenomenon is non-existent today.

By the end of the 1970′s, a number of African States had tried, with less success, to take full control of their economies. At this period, many African countries were faced with adverse terms of trade, rising debt, poor and deteriorating infrastructure as well as declining economies. As a result, these countries sought more aid, got into more debt and found themselves increasingly at the mercy of former colonial powers.

Undoubtedly, the western powers liked what they saw because there were limited possibilities for African countries to escape their economic stranglehold.

Clearly, the problems experienced by African States, between the 1960′s and the 1980′s, stem from a number of factors, which include:

The emergence of neo-colonialism which meant few African countries could independently embark on any political and economic development route outside those designed, approved and managed by the erstwhile colonial powers;

The Western powers never envisaged independent African countries to decide their own development paths, rather, they sought to create dependent client States which could be manipulated according to the strategic and economic requirements of these western countries;

Through a number of measures, both political and economic, former colonial powers maintained their ‘spheres of influence’ consistent with old colonial divisions, hence, the zoning and entrenchment, thereof, of our continent as Anglo-phone Africa, Franco-phone Africa and Luso-phone Africa.

The weak and fragile economies of the newly independent countries left them vulnerable to the variety of political mechanisations of imperial powers;

The coincidence in the 1960′s, of the advent of African independence, with African States still being weak, and, the height of the Cold War, made it possible for new actors to enter the African scene in the form of the USA and the USSR. These two powerful players used the continent as one of their sites for their global confrontations at the time when the continent was trying to shake-off the shackles of colonialism. Today, the lives of many Africans attests to the fact that the wounds of those Cold War confrontations are yet to heal;

The colonially-imposed boundaries became fetters in the processes of nation-building, serving as flashpoints of internal conflicts and instability as well as fuelling inter-states conflicts;Debt, aid, manipulations by aid donors and unfavourable trade terms, especially for exports, falling agricultural outputs, natural disasters and others, became an albatross on many African countries;

Conflicts, wars, military interventions and autocracy became widespread, supplanting democracy.

World recession in the 1980′s had a negative impact on the continent’s weak economies;

Economies became either stagnant or declined during this period.

Clearly, for three decades, the combination of these negative factors conspired to deny our countries, individually and collectively, the possibilities of development and economic growth and, thereby, postponing the attainment of a better life for millions of Africans. Unity and integration, as envisaged by Nkrumah, could not happen under these conditions.

It is clear, then, that there are a number of conditions necessary for the attainment of the higher level of unity and integration of Africa. One of these conditions is that all of Africa had to be free. However, with many parts of the continent not free, even in the1970′s, especially most of southern Africa, the matter of integration became practically feasible only in the last decade of the twentieth century.

Chairperson,

In 1991, 51 independent African states gathered in Abuja, Nigeria, to establish the African Economic Community (AEC) as an integral part of the OAU. The following are the objectives of the Community:

To promote economic, social and cultural development and the integration of African economies in order to increase economic self-reliance and promote an endogenous and self-sustained development;

To establish, on a continental scale, a framework for the development, mobilisation and utilisation of the human and material resources of Africa in order to achieve a self-reliant development;

To promote cooperation in all fields of human endeavour in order to raise the standard of living of African peoples, and maintain and enhance economic stability, foster close and peaceful relations among Member States and contribute to the progress, development and economic integration of the Continent; and

To coordinate and harmonise policies among existing and future economic communities in order to foster the gradual establishment of the Community.

To realise these objectives it was agreed that, among others, the existing economic communities will be strengthened and new ones established; agreements would be finalised with the aim of harmonising and coordinating policies among existing and future sub-regional and regional economic communities.

Further, there would be the liberalisation of trade through the abolition, among Member States of Customs Duties and Non-Tariff Barriers so as to establish free trade areas in each regional economic community.

The countries also agreed to adopt a common trade policy, ensure a common external tariff and establish a common market. Of importance, there was to be a gradual removal, among Member States, of obstacles to the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital and the right of residence and establishment.

The 51 African countries then agreed to implement these and other decisions in six stages over a transitional period of 34 years.

The First Stage of a period of five years, for instance, was for the strengthening and establishment of regional economic communities. The Second Stage of eight years was to deal among other things, with the gradual removal of tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers and gradual harmonisation of customs duties.

Then, the Third Stage of ten years had to deal with the establishment of Free Trade Areas while the Fourth Stage of two years would address the harmonisation of tariff and non-tariff systems among the various regional economic communities with a view to establishing a continental Customs Union by means of adopting a common external tariff.

The Fifth Stage would establish an African Common Market for a period of four years and also include the harmonisation of monetary, financial and fiscal policies as well as ensuring the free movement of persons.

The Sixth Stage of five years would be used for the consolidation and strengthening of the structures of the African Common Market, the integration of all sectors, namely economic, political, social and cultural; the establishment of a single domestic market and a Pan-African Economic and Monetary Union, the establishment of a single African Central Bank and the creation of a single African Currency. This Stage would also see setting-up of the structure of the Pan-African Parliament and election of its members by continental universal suffrage.

Of course, as we have seen with the matter of the establishment of the Pan-African Parliament, some of these processes may in fact come earlier than envisaged. But a review of the various regional economic communities (REC’s), which are the building blocks of our integration, will reveal that some of our regions have not advanced beyond the first stages identified by the prescriptions of the African Economic Community (AEC) as outlined in the Abuja Treaty.

For instance, there is uneven development of the REC’s, resulting in some of these bodies being unable to implement the prescriptions of the Abuja Treaty. Accordingly, it would be difficult to argue successfully that we have strengthened all the REC’s.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has made remarkable progress on many of the prescriptions of the African Economic Community. The region has signed a protocol on free movement of persons including the abolishment of visas for citizens of ECOWAS; has approved the free movement of goods, established an ECOWAS common external tariff, removal of all non-tariff barriers of a monetary nature and introduced the ECOWAS travellers cheque. So clearly, this is great achievement in the direction of integration.

My own region, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which has not achieved as much as ECOWAS, has adopted an overall strategy so as to realise the lofty vision of the African Economic Community as contained in the Abuja Treaty. SADC has adopted the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan as well as Strategic Indicative Plan for the Organ on Politics. These two strategic plans are consistent with the vision of continental integration and focus on policy harmonisation as directed by the Abuja Treaty and help with the acceleration of SADC integration agenda.

There are views that, because we have difficulties in implementing the Abuja Treaty, we should abandon our attempts to strengthen the building blocks of our integration and go straight to integrating at continental level. I must say, I have never heard of a builder who abandons the foundation and start with the roof of a house because the building site is full of rocks.

Further, it is clear that the African countries that met in Abuja, Nigeria in 1991, understood very well that integration should happen hand in hand with development. Hence, the emphasis on drawing programmes aimed at the facilitation of better economic activities and the removal of barriers to economic growth and development.

Accordingly, integration is a means through which all Africans should and must collaborate to harness diffused energies and competencies, utilise our vast natural resources and internal economic strengths so as to give our continent a comparative and competitive advantage in the world market.

Because our individual economies are small, our hope for a better market share in the global economy lies in our combined efforts. That is why the Abuja Treaty is such an important benchmark which we should use as we address the many prescriptions it contains among which is the urgent challenge of strengthening regional economic communities.

Clearly, the integration of Africa will be easier and faster when we have, among others, dealt with the many challenges identified by the Abuja Treaty because this is a Treaty drafted from the practical experience of the African people and expressed by a leadership that is undoubtedly committed to the integration of Africa.

If we are to look at the experience of European integration we will realise that part of the challenge faced in this process of integration was to address underdevelopment. Accordingly, the European Union (EU) set up what they called Structural Funds to give financial support to under-developed and economically weak EU regions and countries.

These Structural Funds comprised of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), European Social Fund (ESF), European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund, Pre-Accession Aid and the Cohesion Fund. Between them, they now make-up a major part of the EU budget.

Through these Funds, the EU has managed to help with the further development of the economies of countries such as Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece as well as the poorer regions of countries such as Sweden and England.

Clearly, Africa is different from Europe in many respects, especially with regard to their respective economic development.

Today, the annual budgets of many African countries are made-up mainly of foreign aid money. Usually, as we know, the donor countries exert pressure on the recipient countries to pursue particular policies.

In this regard, the question that Africans should ask is: what impact will the donor-recipient unequal relationship impact on our process of integration. Will we achieve an integration that benefits the ordinary people of Africa, or would this process ensure easy control of Africa by powerful nations since these outsiders had an influence on the integration path of the continent.

However, these are challenges, which we cannot avoid but should be examined fully and honestly by all of us. Whatever difficulties we encounter we should not lose sight of our main objective of unity and integration. Accordingly, at all times we should consistently and faithfully pursue the prescriptions of the Abuja Treaty and the objectives of Constitutive Act of the AU, develop our economies and ensure that integration and development proceed side by side.

Chairperson,

Some observers talk about the coincidence of historical processes represented by the adoption of the Abuja Treaty with the evolving of a very important era in modern African politics, represented by an unprecedented democratisation process and the deepening of that democracy by measures taken by Africans themselves with the participation of the masses of our people.

Although in the 1990′s our continent still experienced a number of wars and conflicts, the decade was characterised more by the return of democracy to many countries such that by the end of the decade, multi-party elections and democratic governments were more a norm than an exception. At this period, with the exception of the Western Sahara, all of Africa was free.

The economies of many of our countries were beginning a process of recovery, registering better rates of growth than had been the case for almost three decades. The masses of our people were themselves, in the midst of socio-political changes, redefining their role in society, away from the docile and pliant citizens to being active agents of change.

Emboldened by these developments, we made bold to declare the 21st century an African Century where our collective energies, the processes and programmes that we have adopted would defeat the wretched conditions of the African people as they confidently march towards a prosperous future.

We entered the new century having transformed the OAU into the African Union and adopted its development programme, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development. Many of the NEPAD programmes are being implemented and because we are dealing with a century-old colonial legacy, it will obviously take years for some of these projects to begin making a visible impact on the lives of our people. But the indisputable fact is that: we are on the march!

On Sunday, in Accra, we launched the Pan-African Infrastructure Development Fund – part of the NEPAD initiative – with the governments of South Africa and Ghana, as well we African Development Bank playing a central role together with private sector financial institutions from our continent.

We are indeed happy that the launch of this Fund, starting with an initial amount of US$625 million took place when Africa is celebrating Ghana’s 50th anniversary of independence.

The Fund, which will invest mainly in four key areas of Energy; Transport – including rail, roads, ports and airports; Telecommunication; and Water and Sanitation will clearly have a positive impact on the lives of many people.

We are happy that the initial investors are from Africa because they have demonstrated, in a practical way, that we as Africans have both the determination and the ability to meet the challenges facing our continent. As we embark on the projects identified by this Fund, we will need the skills of people such as these that have gathered at this university because we obviously need a lot of expertise to build infrastructure on our continent.

We will also need our brothers and sisters who are in the Diaspora to be part of this initiative as well as the hundreds of thousands of the skilled Africans who left the continent during the difficult years of the past.

In this regard, we have a duty to strengthen our universities, ensure that they have requisite resources to produce graduates with high kills and attract back into the continent, thousands of those skilled Africans who left for the developed countries. This is part of the building blocks that we must use to attain the important steps identified in the Abuja Treaty for our integration. We may not have the billions the EU has in its Structural Funds, but African initiatives such as the Infrastructure Fund affords us the space, among others, to ensure that Africans own their assets and we are able to determine our own loan terms that will help develop our countries rather than put debt albatross in the necks of succeeding generations of Africans.

Dear friends,

In one of the epic dialogues of his latest masterpiece, Wizard of the Crow, the Kenyan writer and thinker, Ngugi wa Thiong’o, has this line of thought:

“Why did Africa let Europe cart away millions of Africa’s souls from the continent to the four corners of the wind? How could Europe lord it over a continent ten times its size? Why does needy Africa continue to let its wealth meet the needs of those outside its borders and then follow behind with hands outstretched for a loan of the very wealth it let go? (p681 wa Thiong’o, Ngugi, Wizard of the Crow, 2006, Harvill Secker, London).

The pathos embedded in our history as captured in this moving dialogue invokes the need for Africans to look hard at the mirror of history and at the challenges entrenched in the womb of the present.

We have already started this irreversible process to redress the failures of history. We dare not fail!

Chairperson,

The AU Ordinary Session to which I referred at the beginning and which was ably chaired by President Kufour, adopted the important Accra Declaration. We agreed to accelerate the economic and political integration of Africa and move towards the formation of a Union Government with a view to ultimately realise the objective of the United States of Africa as envisaged by the founding fathers of the Organisation of African Unity, and in particular, the visionary leader, Dr. Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana.

The meeting recognised the need for common responses to the major challenges of globalisation facing Africa and boosting regional integration processes through an effective continental mechanism. We also agreed to open-up narrow domestic markets to greater trade and investment through freer movement of persons, goods, services and capital so as to accelerate growth an reduce weaknesses of many of our Member States.

Further, the meeting also recognised that the Union Government should be built on common values that need to be identified and agreed upon.

In all these processes, it is agreed that the African peoples should be involved in order to ensure that the African Union becomes, in reality a Union of peoples and not just a ‘Union of states and governments’. Both these masses of our people as well as the African Diaspora should be involved in the processes of economic and political integration of our continent.

Chairperson, if we implement fully all these decisions that will clearly advance our processes of integration and development then we will have the right to say to Ayi Kwei Armah that indeed the beautiful ones are now being born!

NOTE BY CRAIG EISELE:

    I hope that President Mbeki has been apprised of the Trans African Development Company project plan for Africa… it seems we share some of the same visions.  

8 BILLION Dollars of Power Investments Planned for Nigeria

Investors to Sink $8 Billion into New Power Projects

Vanguard (Lagos)
NEWS
17 July 2007
Posted to the web 17 July 2007

By Hector Igbikiowubo

INVESTORS are working out financing arrangements to sink $8 billion into new power projects capable of generating some 8000 Megawatts (Mw) of electricity – part of a wider plan to address perennial supply.

The National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has also disclosed it is working on fresh incentives to attract investment in the development and construction of independent power plants.

Dr. Ransome Owan, Chairman of the NERC made the disclosure while briefing newsmen in Lagos recently, explaining that based on the number of licenses issued to investors, 8000 Mw is expected to be generated.

“Based on the number of licenses issued so far, the quantum of electricity to be generated is about 8,000MW of power. By our standards, every 1,000MW costs a billion dollars. So the 8,000MW is equivalent to $8bn worth of investment.

“If you use the exchange rate of N130 to $1, it would amount to over N1.04trn. so that is the investments that Nigerian companies are willing to put up to help us solve the power problems.”

He pointed out that the Commission is currently reviewing new applications which relate to alternative sources of power supply such as coal, wind and solar energy.

“On Friday; an application came in for a coal power plant in Enugu. So we are having expression of interests in alternative power, which includes wind power and solar energy. Although the latter have not formally come to us but we believe in the near future, our energy mix will be improved.

“I believe we need to improve on our energy need other than hydro and gas to coal power, wind power and other renewable such as solar to improve our energy mix and energy security.”

Dr. Owan, an American trained technocrat of no mean repute also disclosed that in line with plans to attract more investment into the sector, the Commission is considering tax holiday of sort as well as floating a utility bond on the stock market which investors could have access to at very low interest rates.

“We are doing a number of things to support our IPPs. One of them is, we are coming up with a package of incentives, which includes tax holidays, customs, importation of spare parts, even intellectual property that they would need, techniques, which would help them reduce their tax burden and give them some tax breaks.

“The second area that we are working on is to try and come up with a power utility bond, that we can introduce into the capital market that would allow the Nigerian population and institutional investors such as PENCOM and estate managers and other hedge funds managers and use them as utility bonds and help us provide more money for the sector.”

Dr. Owan noted that power was a capital-intensive industry and that investors were finding it difficult accessing funds from financial institutions to execute power projects, adding however, that with such utility bonds, which would be backed by the Federal Government, it would be easier to attract more investments and attain set national power goals.

“If power has debt equity involved, there is plenty of debts, but there is lack of equity, and if we trade the power utility bond and it is backed by the Federal Government, we can use that as an instrument to leverage and get private investors and PENCOM to buy these bonds and give us the money in naira, and our IPPs can access that money at a lower interest rate that is currently possible, and that would help to reduce transaction cost,” he said.

Dr. Owan disclosed that the Commission has opened discussions with sister government agencies including the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) and the National Assembly.

He said these are stakeholders which have to support the plans of the Commission if it was to succeed in attracting investment to the power sector within the shortest possible time.

The Chairman explained that no percentage of tax relief has been determined yet, noting that this has to be done through negotiations.

“We do not have a percentage amount yet because it is subject to negotiation. Any tax holiday that is less money to the treasury, so those who have the responsibility like the Finance Ministry and FIRS must have to agree to make it into a law. But we are going to use a benchmark of what other industry people are enjoying, and ask for similar treatment.”

July 12, 2007

Western Firms Scramble for Africa’s Wealth as Africa Struggles

Africa Slumbers As Western Firms Scramble for Its Wealth

The Nation (Nairobi)
NEWS
8 July 2007
Posted to the web 9 July 2007

By John Mbaria
Nairobi
As Western – and now Chinese – companies gather around the greatest concentration of Africa’s natural resources, countries on the continent are yet to embark on positioning local businesses to share in the windfall, analysts say.

Although many international companies in Africa are of Western origin, China seems to be determined to challenge this hegemony, particularly as far as securing oil concession and other businesses in many African countries are concerned.

Analysts add that in doing this, China is not only driven by its own energy predicament, but also by a realisation that Africa is a place Western capital has not entirely “colonised”.

The US’ Energy Information Administration estimates that the continent holds 8 per cent of the known global oil resources and 11 per cent of the world’s production. This might seem a low percentage, but when it is taken into account that much of Africa’s oil is neither discovered nor exploited, one appreciates the fact that it is a substantial resource.

But as global economic growth rises with the US needing an estimated 119.2 million barrels a day and China 14.2 million by 2025, it is believed that Africa’s oil resources will increasingly become a strategically important resource. Already, the “scramble” for this resource has begun in such countries as Chad, Guinea, Nigeria, Uganda, Angola and Sudan, while others such as Kenya, which do not have known oil deposits, are being targeted for exploration.

Global capital

The million-dollar question is how different African countries will position their economies to benefit from not just oil royalties and taxes, but also in terms of attracting global capital to invest in industries and ventures that will create significant multiplier effects and lift millions from poverty and depravity.

As Kenya’s case shows, Africa has not even started to make this a priority. The Sunday Nation has keenly observed that in areas with the greatest concentration of natural resources in Kenya, the local people and, by extension, the country as a whole, has not even started to appreciate their worth.

Africa is asleep in as far as creating modern business ventures from its resources is concerned. For instance, long before subsidiaries of multinationals came in to bottle and offer “designer” water in the market, springs and streams were regarded as a communal resource to be used by all. And until very recently, locals would merely go to the nearest forest to collect as much fuel wood as their backs could carry.

And although some communities used wildlife for protein while others had long traded in ivory, many in Kenya had not learnt to commercialise its “aesthetic” value. But as Africa sleeps, American, European and Asian companies have based “roaring” businesses on its resources. With a history of innovation, better resource exploitation technology and the ability to strike very lucrative deals with the local elite, such capital is moving fast and furious, and might eventually root out what remains of Africa’s social system of yester years.

The new international concerns investing in Africa’s oil and other resources are completing a pattern started in the colonial period and which is almost intact in many African countries. For instance, perched in the periphery of Kenya’s principal forests or concentrated in the vicinity of principal national parks and pristine springs and streams are remnants of the colonial business order.

But now newer companies have set in – credit to the apparent triumph of globalisation – to give the Kenyan economic landscape a newer, refurbished and increasingly exclusive look. Today, we can talk of Coca-Cola’s designer water Dasani, Brooke Bond’s Green Label tea, Kakuzi’s more efficient kilns, Homegrown’s multi-million-dollar horticultural outfits around Naivasha and in Nanyuki or the luxurious spread of African Safari Club’s exclusive resorts in Mombasa’s North Coast.

This scenario is replicated in many African countries. For example, while on a tour of areas around Lake Malawi last year, I learnt that the locals can no longer access much of the lake as it is almost envelope’ by companies that have put up a stream of exclusive tourist lodges and private estates. Malawi newspapers had reported complaints by the traditional chiefs who threatened to mobilise their subjects if the situation was not rectified. The lake is the second largest in Africa after Victoria.

All this has been going on despite a reawakening in many parts of the continent. But interestingly, there is a world of difference between how Western analysts and their counterparts in Africa view this scenario.

Those in the West seem to believe that the continent’s resources are up for grabs by international businesses and that the only “outlandish” threat is China which, they say, will be an economic superpower in the near future.

For instance, writes Assis Malaquais, an associate professor of government at St Lawrence University, New York: “China’s attempt to quench its own growing energy thirst in Africa will hardly be welcome by the US.”

He goes ahead to explore global security scenarios that China’s quest for Africa’s oil portends and concludes; “the stage is set for a colossal tug-of-war between the United States and China over Africa’s oil resources.” Reading through his article, one gets the impression that Africa and its people do not feature anywhere in making decisions on who is to benefit from the continent’s oil and other natural wealth.

On their part, local analysts, especially the lobby groups, feel that the trend in which Africans’ needs and views are disregarded when it comes to strategically positioning their resources portends grave danger for future peace on the continent.

Many cite rising levels of hopelessness, debilitating poverty and stunted economies, thanks to mismanagement, outright looting and increasing global emasculation as the fodder nurturing mass anger and resentment. They cite the case of the oil-rich Niger Delta of Nigeria where there has been a long running and well documented confrontation between the local people and government forces.

African governments should move fast to ensure all the agreements they make with international companies on exploitation of natural resources cater for the local people’s interests. Such deals ought to be fashioned in such a way that they will enable the nurturing of local talent and capacity for future takeover.

Protectionism, some analysts believe, may help to secure local interests in the short term, but ultimately what Africa needs is to develop its own ability to be truly competitive. The continent needs also to develop from its own resources.

ICT Africa Investment Summit

ICT Africa Investment Summit

Accra Mail (Accra)
NEWS
12 July 2007
Posted to the web 12 July 2007
Accra
African stakeholders in the ICT sector are gathering in Accra today, Thursday 12-14 July 2007 for the annual ICT Africa Investment Summit where issues of investment and service delivery in the broadcasting and telecommunications industry will fall under the spotlight.

Telkom’s Senior Executive for Business Development, Wayne Song, will chair the topic Broadband infrastructure projects and applications in Africa.

This topic will examine some of the broadband infrastructure projects and applications through the following sub-topics: broadband via satellite, satellite system, the Nepad infrastructure projects, challenges of implementing infrastructure projects in Africa: experience from SAT-3 operations.

The summit is an annual forum where Africa stakeholders in the ICT sector come together to address issues that are critical to securing increased investment in the broadcasting and telecommunications infrastructure and service delivery in the continent.

“It makes perfect sense for Telkom to be involved in such conversations as they are aligned to our growth strategy which seeks increased footprint into the continent,” said Song.

The summit also highlights the investment opportunities in the sector and identifies options for accelerated development of the ICT infrastructure in Africa. The summit brings together diverse stakeholders in the sector ranging from policy makers, regulators, operators, service providers, potential investors, financial institutions and consumers.

As a leading telecommunications service provider, Telkom has previously attended the summit. In this regard, Telkom has, in the past two years consecutively, won The Kemilinks International ICT Award for the Best National Fixed Line.

Kemilinks International is the coordinator for the ICT Africa Investment Summit. The awards were established to promote the use of ICT in Africa and to encourage best practice. They have been designed to recognise and reward those organisations and individuals that have demonstrated excellence in promoting the use of ICT for the overall development of the African continent.

Other topics for discussion will include rising to the challenge of the broadband gap in Africa, convergence and digitalisation: issues arising for Africa, spectrum planning and allocation: what are the stakes in Africa, country strategies in deployment of broadband networks in Africa, investing in broadband infrastructures: funding sources and strategies, ICT infrastructure development in Africa: issues arising.

“Telkom’s expansion strategy commits Telkom to increasing its broadband footprint in the African continent. Our latest acquisitions of both Multi-Links and Africa Online are a case in point,” stated Song.

Do Rich Nations Hold Key to Africa’s Success??

Continent Leaders, Rich Nations Hold Key to Africa’s Success

New Vision (Kampala)
COLUMN
11 July 2007
Posted to the web 12 July 2007

By Dr. Tajudeen
Kampala
SATURDAY July 7, 2007 marked the halfway point in a journey whose destination and time of arrival was set by 189 heads of state and governments from most countries of the world, including all the 53 member states of the African Union (AU).

It also included the only African country that is not a member of the AU, Morocco.

It was a large bus of hope that the leaders invited the peoples of the world but especially the poor, the marginalised, the sick, the weakest to join with promises that come 2015, the bus will deliver them to a better life and give them more concrete reasons to have faith in leaders, states and society.

The Millennium declaration was transformed into concrete, achievable, measurable; time- bound commitments known as Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A journey of 15 years should have reached its midway point by July. So are we halfway to all the targets set in the eight goals?

If we are on target there will be no cause for alarm even though the driver and even some of the passengers may demand more effort to save more time. There is no harm in arriving early as long as we arrive safely. If we are not in the midway town, questions have to be asked why. Did the vehicle have a puncture? Or even worse was it involved in a headon collision or did it crash? Is the driver ok? Or did any of the passengers fall off or felt seriously sick needing emergency attention?

If the bus is still on the road but travelling slowly, we have to ask what can be done to make the journey smoother and safer, to catch up for lost time. The MDGs bus is happily not involved in any serious accident. It is still running across different regions of the world but the road-blocks are more in some places than in others.

Even within the same region there are varying speeds because in some parts the drivers seem to dose off whereas in others they are on full alert.

It is in Africa that the bus has been facing many road-blocks. Some of these were deliberately constructed by armed robbers of development (such as inept political leadership, corrupt elite and insensitive government and docile population) while others were artificially created by uncooperative users of the road (such as rich countries that continue to rob poorer countries through unfair trade) while some of the obstacles could be the result of what in Hausa is termed ‘gudu ba gyara’ – reckless driving.

The general global picture from the UN General-Secretary’s MID-term Report shows that Africa is the only continent where the MDGs risk not being met. Unfortunately, Africa is the region that needs the MDGs and really more than the MDGs than any other region of the world. But the general picture hides the growing success stories that show that it is not all bad news.

There are countries that are doing quite well on a number of the goals even if they may not meet all of them. Across the continent in education, most of the countries have seen huge rises in enrolment in primary schools as a result of debt relief and new prioritisation of the education of our children by many governments. Uganda, for instance, has raised the gear from universal primary education to the secondary level; Kenya is considering the same. Malawi has proven that where there is a will there is a way and even Africa’s sleeping giant, Nigeria has reintroduced compulsory universal basic education.

On maternal death in childbirth, infant mortality and education, Mozambique(returning to peace just in a decade) and Rwanda (that ended genocide only 12 years ago) are making steady progress. Uganda’s pioneering leadership in HIV/Aids awareness, advocacy, prevention and treatment are catching on in many countries that are actually beginning to do better than Uganda.

All this is good news and shows that it can be done and more can be achieved. South Africa is the only African country to have made a promise to achieve the MDGs not in 2015 but by 2014. Given the enormous resources of the country, it cannot be a congratulatory effort but it will be welcome.

Resource-rich African countries and those with big economies like Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Angola, DRC, Egypt, Libya, should really be judged by the MDGs because they and should do much better than that. Even the poorer countries like Ethiopia can do better if they set their priority right. If Ethiopia has resources to occupy another country it can certainly do better at home.

The main internal and external obstacles to not achieving the MDGs remain the political will of our leaders and the insincerity of the political leaders of the rich world. The covenant on the MDGs was a very simple one.

If poor countries deliver on goal 1-7, i.e. hunger, poverty, health , education, governance and rights issues and livelihood the richer countries will also deliver on Goal No 8: improved quality and quantity of aid, debt relief and reform of the unjust global trading system that penalises the poor. We need to hold our governments accountable for our side of the bargain.

But even as we are succeeding in that respect, our gains will not translate into sustainable development and social progress if the West and other rich countries of the world do not deliver on their own promise.

Mutual accountability of the political leaders of the world to their citizens (who are the passengers on the bus) is what will grease the rusty bits, service the engine and refuel the MDGs bus at mid-term so that it can coast home successfully by 2015.

Continent’s Energy Crisis to Take Centre Stage At Lisbon in December

Continent’s Energy Crisis to Take Centre Stage At Lisbon

Ghanaian Chronicle (Accra)
NEWS
11 July 2007
Posted to the web 11 July 2007

By Joseph Coomson

AFRICA’S WORSENING energy situation would take centre stage at the revived (European Union (EU)-Africa Summit in December this year in Lisbon.

As one of the policy initiatives to be discussed, the EU-Africa Partnership on Energy is expected to help solve the energy problems of Africa.

On both continents, energy security, access to secure, sustainable and affordable energy services, and the sustainable and efficient management of energy resources are prerequisites for development and prosperity.

Even though Africa has abundant energy resources, it currently has the world’s lowest rate of access to modern energy. Africa has been having serious energy shortages than Europe. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Ghana, Nigeria, and Togo among others are in dire need of energy.

It is estimated that 600 million Africans do not have access to electricity, and use wood for cooking and heating. 400,000 Africans, mainly women and children also die every year of respiratory diseases related to the indoor air pollution from using wood and other traditional fuels.

According to Commission of the European Communities statement which was released last month in Brussels, the investment needs are huge – according to the World Bank, ensuring 100% access to electricity in Sub-Sahara Africa by 2030 would require an annual investment of – 8.27 billion.

“Already now Europe and Africa are closely interlinked in the energy sector: Europe benefits from African energy exports, and Africa benefits from European technical and financial support in the energy sector,” the report said.

It stressed that the increasing global concerns on energy security, energy access and climate change have clearly reinforced the links between the energy future of the two continents, and created the need for joint approaches.

Against this background, the envisaged Africa-EU Energy Partnership will be an innovative platform for an enhanced political energy dialogue between Africa and the EU.

“Via the Energy Partnership, Africa and Europe will share knowledge and experience, develop common policy responses and stimulate specific action that addresses the energy challenges of the 21st century,” the statement stressed.

The Partnership will address security and diversification of energy supply, both for Africa and Europe, promote access to affordable, clean and efficient energy services, stimulate energy markets and aim to increase financial and human resources in support of Africa’s sustainable energy development, while promoting enabling frameworks for investments as well as market transparency and stability.

It would involve key players, such as the private sector and International Financing Institutions, and find ways to include emerging donors’ in the dialogue on energy sector development in Africa.

The summit would work towards the achievement of concrete objectives to strengthen the existing Africa-EU dialogue on access to energy and energy security, to scale up investment in energy infrastructure, including promotion of renewable energy solutions and energy efficiency, to amplify the development-oriented use of oil and gas revenues, to promote transparency and enabling frameworks as well as to mainstream climate change into development cooperation.

The Partnership would also build on existing instruments, such as the overall framework of the EU-Africa Infrastructure Partnership and its Trust Fund, the European Union Energy Initiative (EUEI) and its ACP Energy Facility (currently -220 million), the national and regional indicative programmes under the 10th EDF and the thematic programme on environment, management of natural resources including energy.

Other initiatives to be deliberated upon are the EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change, EU-Africa Partnership on Migration, Mobility and Employment, EU-Africa Partnership on Democratic Governance and creation of a Joint EU-Africa political and institutional architecture.

The postponement of the EU-Africa Summit in 2003 was seen as a major political disappointment and Commission on European Communities welcomed the EU-Africa partnership is now back at the highest political level – where it belongs, the Commission of the European Communities statement had said.

The summit which was revived by the AU chairman, President John Agyekum Kufuor is an opportunity for the political leaders of the two continents to make strong action-oriented political commitments on current key international issues, notably climate change, migration, sustainable energy, governance and security, and to set the political course for the EU-Africa strategic partnership.

African and EU Heads of State and Government, representing 80 countries and almost 1.5 billion people will then sign a Lisbon Declaration – an EU-African consensus on values, common interest and strategic objectives.

Fibre-Optic Cable May Create Bandwidth ‘Glut’ in East Africa Coast

Fiber-Optic Cable May Create Bandwidth ‘Glut’

The Nation (Nairobi)
NEWS
12 July 2007
Posted to the web 12 July 2007
London
There is growing concern among western telecommunication experts that the planned marine-based fibre-optic cable link could come at a high price to the service provider.

Despite the latest news carried in the Daily Nation’s sister paper, The East African this week – that the Government had turned down a proposal by the US company Seacom for a joint venture in the regional project – there remains four groups bidding to participate.

East Africa is the only region in the world not yet connected to the global broadband network, and hence Internet connection in the region is notoriously poor.

But the respected Financial Times newspaper, in a special report on the issue, said that in the medium to long term, the establishment of a fibre optic cable could bring problems for an eventual provider.

“Some prospective investors worry that East Africa could swing from being starved of bandwidth to having a glut,” the FT report says.

“Seacom alone is expected to add 640 gigabites of bandwidth, yet Kenya today uses a mere 1.2 gigabites.

“Sceptics say the African projects risk repeating errors made during the Internet bubble (in the UK), when over capacity and intense price competition forced several groups with rival transatlantic cables into bankruptcy.”

Seacom has said its cable will be operational by 2009 while the Kenyan government says that its shorter cable will be completed by the middle of next year.

The East African report says that the U.S. company is ahead of all the others, having signed an engineering procurement contract.

If they are the first providers of broadband to Kenya they are likely to have a distinct advantage, making it difficult for other companies to compete.

July 9, 2007

China to Build AU Annex Complex With U.S. $150 Million in Addis Ababa

China to Build AU Annex Complex With U.S. $150 Million in Addis

The Reporter (Addis Ababa)
NEWS
7 July 2007
Posted to the web 9 July 2007
Addis Ababa
China will spend USD150 million to expand the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the pan-African body said on Monday.

The new premises will stand on the site of the former central prison, which has already moved to Kaliti, 20 km. south of the city.

Site clearing for the annex, to be built opposite AU headquarters, started on Monday.

The Addis Ababa city administration gave the land to the AU in 2004, but the AU did not have the money to develop it.

The new construction will give the AU more office and meeting space, which are in great need, the AU said.

China has long provided aid to Africa for projects like roads, hospitals and ports, often with minimum conditions unlike those set by Western donors.

The Chinese government will also build residences for senior AU officials.

July 8, 2007

African Development Bank Group (AfDB) Group Tops Billion Dollar Mark in Annual Private Sector Investments

AfDB Group Tops Billion Dollar Mark in Annual Private Sector Investments

African Development Bank (Tunis)
NEWS
6 July 2007
Posted to the web 6 July 2007
Tunis
The African Development Bank (AfDB) Group has made over a billion dollars in annual private sector investments in Africa for the first time since its founding in 1964. The Bank reached that highpoint following the approval on Thursday by its Board of Directors of two new financing transactions: a Euro 6 million loan to establish the Sahanivotry micro-hydro power station in Madagascar and a Euro 0.6 million equity investment in the microenterprise-oriented Access Bank of Tanzania. With both approvals, the AfDB’s total investments without sovereign guarantees thus far in 2007 amount to $1.01 billion.

The AfDB provides a range of financial products without sovereign guarantees to complement its traditional lending operations to governments with sovereign guarantees. Private sector operations of the Bank Group promote strong environmental, social, and corporate governance standards as well as help African companies achieve international best practices, making them more competitive at home and in the international marketplace.

“Supporting private sector development on the continent is a top priority for the AfDB,” said AfDB President, Donald Kaberuka. “AfDB’s rapid expansion of its non-sovereign operations is demonstrating how the public and private sectors can work together to create opportunities and improve people’s lives. Our position as Africa’s premier financial institution provides us with an opportunity to work with development partners in areas such as infrastructure and access to finance and help lead development in lower income and post-conflict countries.”

The Bank began to undertake private sector operations in 1991 and currently pursues an institution-wide strategy that seeks to identify weaknesses in the investment climate and business-enabling environment in Africa and finance programs to address them, and selectively finance non-sovereign guaranteed projects that can have a strong catalytic and demonstration effect.

“Government commitment to improving the investment climate will largely determine Africa’s future growth and investment opportunities,” according to Mr. Mandla Gantsho, the Bank’s Vice President for Infrastructure, Private Sector, and Regional Integration. “There are still significant challenges ahead, and we are working closely with governments and other development partners to improve the business-enabling environment and to create public-private project structures that attract investment capital, especially in the infrastructure sector.”

In this regard, the AfDB is working to ensure that African governments uphold contractual obligations to private investors, that African governments and communities substantially benefit from private investment, and that all parties respect international standards on environmental sustainability and open and transparent procurement.

“The sharp increase in the AfDB’s non-sovereign operations reflects the burgeoning level of opportunities for financially attractive public-private partnerships in a broad range of sectors. The development impact that increased private investment can have in Africa is stronger than ever,” said Tim Turner, AfDB Director for Private Sector Operations.

For future non-sovereign guaranteed investments in Africa, the AfDB will focus on public-private partnerships in the financial sector including microfinance, infrastructure, extractive industries, manufacturing, agribusiness and services, with special emphasis on projects that promote regional integration. The AfDB works in close collaboration with other development partners and its private sector operations are presently benefiting from special financial assistance from the government of Japan, which has joined the AfDB to establish the Enhanced Private Sector for Africa (EPSA) Initiative.

June 27, 2007

Cameroon, Chad, CAR WOULD Benefit from Less Costly, More Reliable Road and Rail Links

I was almost amused by this article and release from the World Bank. The development plan of Trans African Development Company specifically addresses these infrastructure projects and has been designed to foster economic benefit and cooperation within all of these countries. 
World Bank (Washington, DC)
NEWS
26 June 2007
Posted to the web 27 June 2007
Washington, D.C.
The World Bank Board of Executive Directors today approved a US$201 million regional operation to finance transport and trade improvements in Cameroon, Chad and the Central African Republic.

The financing package consists of an International Development Association (IDA) credit of US$147 million to the Republic of Cameroon and an IDA grant of US$24 million to the Central African Republic and an IDA grant of US$30 million to the Republic of Chad for a Transport transit Facilitation project.

The three-country project is aligned with the CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community) Transport and Trade Facilitation project, approved by the CEMAC heads of state in 2006, which aims to facilitate regional trade among the CEMAC member states and improve the countries’ access to world markets.   It is part of an unprecedented multi donor effort in the region to improve transport infrastructure, which is co funded by the African Development Fund, the European Union and the Agence Française de Développement (French Development Agency), as well as the three governments. IDA’s participation to the project will be less than thirty percent.

Transport costs in central Africa are among the highest on the Continent. For Chad and the CAR, both landlocked countries, transit costs represent 52% and 33% of the value of exports respectively. Road travel from Douala, Cameroon –the main port and regional gateway– currently takes about 15 days to N’Djamena, Chad and 10 days to Bangui, CAR. Delays in the port can add another 28 days.

The project targets specific sections of the road corridors connecting N’Djamena and Bangui to Douala for rehabilitation, along with rail improvements, in a context which will allow a sustainable institutional framework for the rail sector.

In addition to supporting the core transit infrastructure, the project will advance operationalization of the customs union among the three countries and reduce physical and other barriers along the Douala-N’Djamena and Douala-Bangui corridors.   It is also expected to increase the regional integration of CEMAC member states by supporting a new transit regime in the sub-region that can streamline movement of goods among the CEMAC countries. Finally, the project will finance technical assistance and computerization to enhance the efficiency of the port of Douala, thereby speeding the port clearance process.

In Chad’s case, the IDA grant will finance 25% of the works and equipment costs for the transport improvements. The remaining 75% will be financed through Chad’s oil revenues.

“This project recognizes the need for regional approaches in a part of Africa where landlocked economies are profoundly disadvantaged by costly and unreliable transport and trade processes,” said Jean-Francois Marteau, Task Team Leader for the project. “What we should see as a result are more reliable services, lower transport costs and in the long term improved access to world markets and greater trade flows among the three countries.”

The Roads and railway Infrastructure component of the project, co-funded by four donors, will focus on periodic maintenance, rehabilitation and upgrading works on selected rail and road sections along the corridors and paving of existing gravel road sections.   It will help harmonize and enforce the axle road control policies, improve rest areas, help rehabilitate key rail infrastructure and implement HIV/AIDS awareness and mitigation measures.

The Transit and Transport Facilitation Investments will include information and communication technology between stakeholders, especially within the port community. It will improve transit regime and border crossing through cargo tracking, borders posts and, strengthen port safety and security.

The Customs and Transport Sector Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building will strengthen CEMAC customs union, mostly through improving national customs and transport facilitation institutions.

For more information on the World Bank in sub-Saharan Africa visit: www.worldbank.org/afr

For more information about the World Bank in Cameroon visit: www.worldbank.org/cameroon

For more information about the World Bank in CAR visit: www.worldbank.org/car

For more information about the World Bank in Chad visit: www.worldbank.org/chad

For more information about this project visit: http://web.worldbank.org/external/projects/main?pagePK=64283627&piPK=73230&theSi

June 26, 2007

African Continent Seeks More Funds & Private Sector Participation especially in Energy

Continent Seeks More Funds, Private Sector Participation

Ghanaian Chronicle (Accra)
NEWS
4 June 2007
Posted to the web 5 June 2007

By Phyllis D. Osabutey

AFRICAN ENERGY and Finance Ministers and development partners as well as regional and international financial institutions have recognized among other things the need for a wider variety of financing sources including non-concessional funds to address what they described as the critical problems in the energy sector.

They noted in view of the fact that “excluding debt relief, official development assistance, flows remain stagnant”, such additional funds and an increased private sector participation in the energy sector in Africa would help “to pursue the Millennium Development Goals.”

This was contained in a communiqué adopted by the Ministers and their partners at the second conference on financing for development on the theme, “Infrastructure for Growth: the Energy Challenge” in Accra last week.

The conference, which took stock of progress made with regards to previous undertakings and commitments made at Abuja, Singapore and Maputo meetings focused on feasible options for addressing the financing needs of the energy sector and how to enhance contribution of the sector to growth and poverty reduction in Africa.”

The participants indicated that independent national action would not be enough to bridge the energy gap because of the lumpiness, costliness of energy investments and uneven distribution of energy resources.

This, they pointed out has been compounded by rising oil prices, weak regulatory environment, inefficient pricing policy, poor institutional capacity and an unconducive environment for private sector participation in the energy sector.

For these reasons, they stressed the need to make best use of hydro-power, natural gas and other resources with a required strengthened regional integration and the building of regional energy infrastructure.

Out of the many presentations made at the conference on different topics, the participants gave particular attention to that of the Chairman of Ghana’s National Development Planning Commission, Mr. J.H Mensah who chaired the opening ceremony on Wednesday and enchanted them with his presentation in which he noted that numerous promises from governments of the developed world have failed Africa and therefore called on Africans and their chosen leaders to take charge of their own development, saying that was the only successful model in developing the continent.

He emphasized productivity growth as the key to raising living standards and eradicating poverty, saying, the assured route to eradicating poverty was not through providing other enhancement in the quality of lives with foreign grants, loans or other means of buying a better living on other taxpayers’ money but through increasing their own productivity so that they can procure improvements out of their own pockets.

“We took note of his call that African countries must take advantage of the opportunities offered by the Gleneagles commitment”, they said, adding, “we took note of the special challenges faced by post-conflict and fragile states as well as the need for greater responsiveness to their financing needs.”

Other topics that gained prominence were “need for private investments in energy sector in Africa”, “meeting Africa’s financing challenges: the private sector’s role”, and the “underpinnings of energy policy in Ghana.”

To address the double challenges of increasing access to energy for the poor and of ensuring reliable functioning of existing energy infrastructure, they pledged their determination to achieve demonstrable results by calling on governments to among other things reform regulation in the energy sector to create an enabling environment for private sector participation.

Further, they called for “mobilizing domestic resources, through new financing instruments, appropriate energy pricing and payment mechanisms, and the creation of opportunities for investment by domestic investors.”

In the area of regional action, they pointed out that international partnerships are necessary for addressing Africa’s energy gap and therefore urged that “multilateral and bilateral development partners should support our national priorities and development plans for energy, reviewing existing sectoral priorities in their cooperation with us” among others.

For the private sector, they noted, “financial institutions, including commercial banks, development financial institutions should develop new financing instruments such as infrastructure funds; firms in the extractive sector should engage in independent power projects and the private sector should explore public-private partnership options with governments.”

In conclusion, they stated that effective monitoring of implementation of commitments, which includes timely reporting, was critical for success hence “it is important for the Conference series to have a permanent secretariat. To this end, we ask AfDB and ECA to work out the modalities for operationalizing the secretariat as a joint venture”, adding, “We continue to urge the G8 and other development partners to treat Africa as a priority.”

The conference was organized in collaboration with the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and was also attended by other UN agencies, State Secretary of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, representing the German Presidency of the G8 and EU, representatives of civil society and the private sector.

June 25, 2007

Japan Commits billions to “redesign” Cities in Zambia.

Japan Commits Over 160bn to Develop Country’s Cities

The Times of Zambia (Ndola)
NEWS
25 June 2007
Posted to the web 25 June 2007

JAPAN has offered to redesign Lusaka city and has committed K160 billion for the improvement and maintenance of Livingstone, Ndola and Kitwe city roads.

Japanese ambassador to Zambia, Masaaki Miyashita said the two-year master development plan aimed at turning Lusaka into a metropolitan city by the year 2030 would cost about K1.2 billion.

He said this during the recording of the nine series of National Road Fund Agency (NRFA) television documentary programmes to be aired on the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC) Television soon.

In a statement issued in Lusaka yesterday by NRFA spokesperson, Alphonsius Hamachila after the recording, the Japanese envoy said “the master development study on the greater Lusaka urban transportation, land use, ring roads, water and sanitation improvement will cost my government about K1.2 billion.”

He said it was the first time Japan was developing such a master development plan for a city in Africa.

“For Japan, this is a historical project. We have developed a similar master plan in Mongolia but we have not done it in Africa,” he said.

He said his country would engage relevant ministries and Government institutions such as the Lusaka City Council and road sector agencies as it developed the plan. The study has been necessitated by the rapid expansion of Zambia’s capital.

Once the Lusaka master development plan is completed, it will require huge amounts of money to put the infrastructure in place and Japan will significantly finance its implementation.

Japan has also committed about K160 billion for road works in Ndola, Kitwe and Livingstone cities.

Mr Miyashita said about K80 billion would be used to improve and maintain Livingstone city roads for the period 2008 to 2009 while another K80 billion would go towards improving Ndola and Kitwe city roads for the period 2007 to 2008.

He said the feasibility study for the improvement and maintenance of the Ndola and Kitwe city roads had already begun.

Mr Miyashita said road infrastructure development in Zambia was one of the priorities for his country because a quality road network fostered economic emancipation.

The nine series NRFA documentary dubbed ‘Road Fund at Work’ will highlight the agency’s internal operations, acknowledge sources of the road fund and pinpoint the objectives and achievements of phase two of the $US1.60 billion Road Sector Investment Programme (ROADSIP II).

It will also highlight how much money has been disbursed on various road projects in the nine provinces of Zambia from Government allocations, fuel levy and cooperating partners such as the World Bank, European Union (EU), Norway, Japan, Germany and others.

June 23, 2007

Termite Technology Could Boost Road Infrastructure

Termite Technology Boosts Road Infrastructure

UN Integrated Regional Information Networks
NEWS
22 June 2007
Posted to the web 22 June 2007
Lusaka
Engineers are mimicking the technology of termites to build cheap, durable, environmentally friendly and desperately needed road infrastructure in Zambia and, in the process, providing jobs at grassroots level.

The almost indestructible nature of termite mounds and the realization that this technology could be adapted to build roads even more hard wearing than those made from asphalt came at the cost of a broken limb.

“The idea came from my best, best friend, a South African named Henry Halle, who, in his garden, tried to kick those [termite] hills away. On his third try he broke his leg,” said Kim Anderson, a Danish national working in the Zambian capital, Lusaka. “After that he came to me and said, ‘This is something! We need to replicate this technology for construction.’”

Anderson, a regional manager for a Danish air service company, secured financing from the European Union and the Danish government for a road construction pilot project in South Africa, based on termite technology, and a recent initiative in Zambia.

It is not the first time that termite technology has been used to build man-made structures: the Eastgate shopping centre in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, was modeled on termite mounds, using the design for energy-saving ventilation;

In Europe architectural firms are researching and copying mound technology in the design of high-rise buildings, in an attempt to replicate the termites’ ability to create climate control in their relatively mammoth structures.

Environment friendly

The roads differ from asphalt roads: we don’t use diesel fuel to build [them]

“Millions of insects inhabit a single mound. Located in a nest buried approximately a meter beneath the ground, they face a formidable challenge to ventilate the colony and maintain both temperature and moisture constants, whilst protecting the colony from the harsh environment outside, in which they would perish,” said Rupert Soar, a mechanical engineer and researcher at Loughborough University, England, in a recent report.

Though termites are popularly known as wood-devouring pests, 75 percent of the 3,000 known species are classified as soil-feeding, whose diet consists of organic material mixed with clay minerals.

“Environmentally friendly roads differ from asphalt roads: we don’t use diesel fuel to build [them],” Andersen said. “During a visit to South Africa in 1995, we took a look at those big hills made by those small insects. We took a test of the solution they use to mix up the soil, and found we could apply it to clay to make a road.”

Termite mounds have a clay content about 20 percent higher than that of the adjacent soils, reflecting the insects’ preference for smaller clay particles for construction. While being transported in the insects’ mouths or their five gut compartments, the particles are saturated by alkaline and other chemicals, which add nutrients and contribute to the structures’ robustness.

“Soil particles probably undergo modifications in the insect’s gut because of the extremely alkaline pH, reaching values up to 12,” said a study published in the Brazilian periodical, Scientia Agricola.

After duplicating the chemical properties of the ‘cement’ created by termites to harden their mound, which extend one meter into the earth but can rise over two meters above it, Andersen’s team launched their first pilot project in South Africa.

“We found if you mix it with soil, wherever you are in Africa, you can make a very good road, like asphalt. In South Africa we tested it in an agricultural area where heavy trucks are running. Since 1996 to last December [2006], we calculated there have been 11 million vehicles using the road, five million of them heavy trucks, and there has been no wear on the road down to the roadbed. It’s very durable,” Andersen told IRIN.

Job creation

“The project in Zambia is to make the infrastructure a lot better. When we go out to the villages and compounds, we don’t bring workmen with us. We just bring the material and the few machines we need, and then a week before construction we take local people and train them – show them out to do it. They make their own road, actually. At the same time that we are making an environmentally friendly road, we are also creating jobs,” Andersen said.

When we go out to the villages and compounds, we don’t bring workmen with us. We just bring the material and the few machines we need, and then a week before construction we take local people and train them

“We are going to move out to different countries. Botswana and Malawi are interested, because they have big road problems,” Andersen said. The environmentally friendly termite technology is cheaper than conventional asphalt roads, and more durable.

“We are also funded by different health organizations that need to have the roads done so they can come out to the villages and open new clinics,” he said.

Jack Jones Zulu, manager of economics programs for the Southern Africa Regional Poverty Network, an NGO working to reduce poverty in the region, said the lack of a road network was felt acutely by small-scale farmers, who were unable to transport their produce to the markets.

He commented that involving local communities in road building projects such as these not only provided jobs, but also sense of ownership of the infrastructure that was not apparent when roads were built by international contractors.

Depending on funding and the productivity of rural village road crews, it was expected that 300km of the new ‘termite roads’ would have been constructed in Zambia by the end of 2007.

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations ]

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