Governmental Austerity Does NOT Work In Times Like These

Paul Krugman Calls it:  The Austerity Debacle  And he is right AGAIN! Unfortunately Politics and ideology trump basic economics and common sense.

Last week the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, released a startling chart comparing the current slump with past recessions and recoveries. It turns out that by one important measure — changes in real G.D.P. since the recession began — Britain is doing worse this time than it did during the Great Depression. Four years into the Depression, British G.D.P. had regained its previous peak; four years after the Great Recession began, Britain is nowhere close to regaining its lost ground.

Nor is Britain unique. Italy is also doing worse than it did in the 1930s — and with Spain clearly headed for a double-dip recession, that makes three of Europe’s big five economies members of the worse-than club. Yes, there are some caveats and complications. But this nonetheless represents a stunning failure of policy.

And it’s a failure, in particular, of the austerity doctrine that has dominated elite policy discussion both in Europe and, to a large extent, in the United States for the past two years.

O.K., about those caveats: On one side, British unemployment was much higher in the 1930s than it is now, because the British economy was depressed — mainly thanks to an ill-advised return to the gold standard — even before the Depression struck. On the other side, Britain had a notably mild Depression compared with the United States.

Even so, surpassing the track record of the 1930s shouldn’t be a tough challenge. Haven’t we learned a lot about economic management over the last 80 years? Yes, we have — but in Britain and elsewhere, the policy elite decided to throw that hard-won knowledge out the window, and rely on ideologically convenient wishful thinking instead.

Britain, in particular, was supposed to be a showcase for “expansionary austerity,” the notion that instead of increasing government spending to fight recessions, you should slash spending instead — and that this would lead to faster economic growth. “Those who argue that dealing with our deficit and promoting growth are somehow alternatives are wrong,” declared David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister. “You cannot put off the first in order to promote the second.”

How could the economy thrive when unemployment was already high, and government policies were directly reducing employment even further? Confidence! “I firmly believe,” declared Jean-Claude Trichet — at the time the president of the European Central Bank, and a strong advocate of the doctrine of expansionary austerity — “that in the current circumstances confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery, because confidence is the key factor today.”

Such invocations of the confidence fairy were never plausible; researchers at the International Monetary Fund and elsewhere quickly debunked the supposed evidence that spending cuts create jobs. Yet influential people on both sides of the Atlantic heaped praise on the prophets of austerity, Mr. Cameron in particular, because the doctrine of expansionary austerity dovetailed with their ideological agendas.

Thus in October 2010 David Broder, who virtually embodied conventional wisdom, praised Mr. Cameron for his boldness, and in particular for “brushing aside the warnings of economists that the sudden, severe medicine could cut short Britain’s economic recovery and throw the nation back into recession.” He then called on President Obama to “do a Cameron” and pursue “a radical rollback of the welfare state now.”

Strange to say, however, those warnings from economists proved all too accurate. And we’re quite fortunate that Mr. Obama did not, in fact, do a Cameron.

Which is not to say that all is well with U.S. policy. True, the federal government has avoided all-out austerity. But state and local governments, which must run more or less balanced budgets, have slashed spending and employment as federal aid runs out — and this has been a major drag on the overall economy. Without those spending cuts, we might already have been on the road to self-sustaining growth; as it is, recovery still hangs in the balance.

And we may get tipped in the wrong direction by Continental Europe, where austerity policies are having the same effect as in Britain, with many signs pointing to recession this year.

The infuriating thing about this tragedy is that it was completely unnecessary. Half a century ago, any economist — or for that matter any undergraduate who had read Paul Samuelson’s textbook “Economics” — could have told you that austerity in the face of depression was a very bad idea. But policy makers, pundits and, I’m sorry to say, many economists decided, largely for political reasons, to forget what they used to know. And millions of workers are paying the price for their willful amnesia.

….. PAUL KRUGMAN 1/29/12

Damaged Romney ALL-IN for Florida…. Gloves Come Off

Mitt Romney’s expected romp to the Republican presidential nomination turned into a long and hard slog on Saturday, and he leaves South Carolina as a damaged and suddenly vulnerable candidate.

But beyond the take-back-our-country frenzy that Newt Gingrichwas able to whip up among conservative voters in the Palmetto State, Romney still has significant advantages over Gingrich as the race heads to Florida and beyond.

Romney’s past week in South Carolina hardly could have been worse.

In two debates the private equity executive with an estimated worth of $270 million fumbled questions about when he would release his tax returns, acknowledged that his tax rate was well below those of most wage-earning Americans, and generally allowed Gingrich to cast him as an out-of-touch elitist.

Meanwhile, the long list of Gingrich’s peccadilloes that polls have said make him unelectable to many Americans — his cheating on his first two wives, the ethics probe when he was U.S. House of Representatives speaker, his unapologetic tendency to say things some view as racially insensitive – were swept aside by his strong performances in televised debates before conservative crowds.

By the time Gingrich’s dominating win in South Carolina was tabulated late on Saturday, it was clear that the race for the Republican nomination is led by two flawed candidates.

It also was clear that Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, is better equipped than Gingrich for the bumpy ride ahead in the race to determine which Republicanwill face Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election.

As the campaign heads to a January 31 primary in Florida – a large, diverse state where campaigning is particularly expensive – Romney will have more chances to flex his financial and organizational muscle over Gingrich and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who finished third in South Carolina.

The campaigns are not due to file expense reports until the end of the month. But some of the spending by the political action committees (PACs) that support them has been reported to federal election officials, and shows that the PAC backing Romney has spent millions in Florida since mid-December, far more than any other PAC.

“What this looks like now is what Romney has planned for all along – a long, hard campaign,” Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said. “Romney has the money and the organization in place in states where other candidates haven’t even thought about going yet.”

ROMNEY’S NETWORK

For Gingrich, the challenge will be turning the momentum he won in South Carolina into a self-sustaining organization that can raise money and build support beyond the early states.

In the first week of February, five more states hold nominating contests – Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Arizona and Michigan have contests late in the month.

Romney has been organizing in those states for months. Gingrich is far behind in doing so, and failed to even make the ballot in Missouri.

Beyond his organization, Romney has other advantages in the February contests. As a presidential candidate in 2008, he won Nevada easily with more than 50 percent of the vote. He grew up in Michigan, where his father, George, was a governor and auto executive.

Four of the states – Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota – are caucus states where get-out-the-vote campaign organizations can be critical.

“Momentum and excitement only take you so far,” said Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party.

“Gingrich’s biggest challenge going forward is his record, but he also has an organizational challenge in that he has not put together a national campaign,” he said.

In claiming victory late Saturday, Gingrich acknowledged as much.

“I need your help in reaching out to people in Florida,” Gingrich told supporters. “We don’t have the kind of money that at least one of the candidates does. But we do have ideas and we do have people and we’ve proved here in South Carolina that people power with the right ideas beats big money. And with your help we’re going to prove it again in Florida. “

There are two debates in Florida this week, which could be good news for Gingrich if he can continue performing well in such settings.

Romney will be under immense pressure to shine in the debates or face growing doubts from a Republican establishment that so far has been falling in line behind him.

Romney signaled on Saturday he will take a far more aggressive approach against Gingrich and remind voters of the former House speaker’s mixed record. In South Carolina, Romney raised Gingrich’s ethics violations as House speaker.

“Our party can’t be led to victory by someone who has never run a business and never run a state,” Romney said after the South Carolina results were in, comparing Gingrich with Obama.

Florida is more diverse and less conservative state than South Carolina with large concentrations of elderly, Hispanic and Jewish voters – putting Social Security and immigration in the spotlight – and an unemployment rate of 10 percent, far above the national average.

Romney leads Gingrich in opinion polls in Florida by double digits, but Gingrich showed in South Carolina he can wipe out a lead of that size in a week.

GINGRICH’S GREAT WEEK

Gingrich made headway against Romney in South Carolina by attacking his work for Bain Capital, a private equity firm, and questioning his refusal to release his tax returns.

It’s unclear whether those issues will play well in Florida.

“Newt had one of the best weeks in politics I’ve ever seen and Romney had one of the worst,” said Republican strategist Rich Galen, a former Gingrich aide. “But how many times can you say, ‘When will you release your taxes?’ It’s been asked and answered.”

Romney has had staff and phone banks operating in Florida for months. The campaign also has encouraged voters to cast ballots before Election Day, flooding them with mail and phone calls for months. Early voting has already started in Florida.

“Gingrich will carry momentum into Florida, but his campaign doesn’t appear to be as durable for the long haul,” said Republican strategist Adam Temple of South Carolina.

“He’s not on the ballot in Virginia, appears to be lacking in Nevada organization and continues to carry baggage that won’t go away,” he said.

The South Carolina result showed Romney still has trouble winning over conservatives who remember his past support for abortion rights and an individual healthcare mandate when he was governor of Massachusetts.

“There is still a fairly hard ceiling to Romney’s support among Republican voters,” said Dan Schnur, an aide to eventual Republican nominee John McCain during his 2000 campaign. “But I don’t know that they are rejecting Romney as much as demanding more evidence. They want him to earn it.”

Romney Reassess His Campaign Strategy

 Mitt Romney is pressing reset.

After a crushing loss to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, the former Massachusetts governor made clear Sunday that he plans to attack his chief rival’s character, release his tax returns this week and try to right a campaign he acknowledged had been knocked off kilter.

“It was not a great week for me,” Romney acknowledged during an interview on “Fox News Sunday.”

And at a rally here, his first event in Florida after the loss to Gingrich, Romney assailed the former speaker’s leadership abilities. “We’re not choosing a talk show host, alright?” he said. “We’re choosing a leader.”

Romney now turns to Florida at what is possibly the most critical moment of his campaign, after two weeks of sustained attacks from his opponents and a series of self-inflicted errors that erased any notion that he would be able to lock up the nomination quickly by winning this state’s Jan. 31 primary.

“I’m looking forward to a long campaign,” Romney said on Fox News. “We are selecting the president of the United States. Someone who is going to face ups and downs and real challenges, and I hope that through this process, I can demonstrate that I can take a setback and come back strong.”

Even if Romney does manage a victory here — his Florida campaign is by far the strongest of any in the GOP field, and he and his allies have been alone on the air for weeks — the race has become a two-way fight between him and Gingrich, the former House speakerwith a huge dose of momentum.

And now Romney’s team is girding for a long and costly fight that extends well beyond Florida. Saturday night’s shellacking in South Carolina underscored the former Massachusetts governor’s vulnerabilities and undermined his claims of becoming the inevitable Republican nominee.

Over the next 10 days, the candidates — including former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas Rep. Ron Paul — will meet twice on the debate stage, a venue where Gingrich has thrived in recent weeks and Romney has struggled some when pressed about questions about his wealth and private business experience. The debates — Monday in Tampa and Thursday in Jacksonville — present fresh opportunities for both breakout performances and mistakes.

Romney brought out his more aggressive posture and lines of attack toward Gingrich at the Sunday rally. “Speaker Gingrich has also been a leader. At the end of four years, it was proven that he was a failed leader,” Romney said, referring to the ethics investigation that resulted in a rare reprimand for a House speaker.

It’s clear the campaign is worried voters have forgotten Gingrich’s history. “He had to resign in disgrace. I don’t know whether you knew that,” Romney said.

“I’m asking the people of Florida to consider: what are the qualities of leadership?” he said. “What makes an effective president, a great president, even? Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower and FDR, even?”

It was an angrier, more aggressive Romney who took the stage at the rally here. He shouted back and forth with the crowd after Occupy Wall Street hecklers interrupted him and rattled off a list of leadership qualities, drawing cheers after each, in a rare back-and-forth with the crowd.

Romney attacked Gingrich’s time working for the quasi-government mortgage giant Freddie Mac, calling again for him to release records related to his consulting work for them.

Behind the scenes, aides also indicated that Romney would go after Gingrich’s character in Florida as a way to distinguish himself — a father of five who has been married to the same woman for 42 years — from his thrice-married rival. And the aides argued that the results in South Carolina don’t indicate Republican primary voters everywhere are willing to overlook Gingrich’s two divorces and acknowledged infidelity. Gingrich’s second wife, Marianne, told ABC News in an interview aired Thursday that the former speaker asked her for an open marriage so he could continue having an affair with the House staffer who is now his third wife.

Publicly, Romney has refused to engage on the subject thus far, saying at a debate Thursday: “Let’s get onto the real issues. That’s all I got to say.”

But Romney has started poking at Gingrich’s character by raising questions about the ethics investigation against Gingrich in the 1990s, when he was House speaker, and suggested that the former Georgia lawmaker was hiding something by refusing to release reams of documents he apparently gave to investigators back then.

Asked Sunday whether character would become an issue, Romney said, “No question.”

“Leadership is the key attribute that people should look for in considering a president,” Romney said, “and character is a big part of leadership, as is vision, sobriety, steadiness.”

Romney’s team also plans to contrast his experience as a governor and businessman with Gingrich’s experience in Congress and his later work with former colleagues on behalf of businesses.

Romney, meanwhile, also is working to fix a key vulnerability — defensiveness over questions about his personal wealth, including money in funds in the Cayman Islands, a popular haven for international investment.

Under pressure to release his tax returns immediately, Romney reversed course and said he would release those documents for 2010 and an estimate for 2011 on Tuesday — months ahead of their planned April release.

The documents will lay out just how Romney, a multimillionaire many times over, makes his money and reveal his actual tax rate, which Romney estimated at about 15 percent.

His wife, Ann Romney, addressed the issue at the Florida rally, suggesting family was more important than money.

“I understand Mitt’s going to release his tax forms this week,” she said as she introduced him. “I want to remind you where we know our riches are. Our riches are with our families.”

“That’s where we measure our wealth, is through those children,” she said.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a backer who had called on Romney to immediately release his returns, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Romney made the right decision, saying, “I’m happy he’s doing it.”

Gingrich Courts Disenfranchised Evangelical Christians in Florida

 Newt Gingrich’s presidential hopes may rest among the pews of Florida’s ministries and mega-churches.

The former House speaker is looking to Florida’s religious conservatives to counter rival Mitt Romney’s organizational and financial might in a state where so-called “values voters” could constitute more than a third of the Republican electorate in the Jan. 31 primary.

“There’s no question Gov. Romney will always have more money,” Gingrich says when asked about his Florida campaign. But he’s quick to add that his team has between 5,000 and 6,000 volunteers. Aides say many of them are evangelicals.

Thrice-married, Gingrich may not be the obvious pick for church-goers here. But the network of religious activists he’s assembling has far greater concerns about Romney’s inconsistent history on abortion and gay rights than they seemingly do about Gingrich’s two divorces and acknowledged marital infidelity.

And that gives Gingrich an opening as he challenges Romney in the aftermath of Saturday’s primary in South Carolina, where the polls suggest Gingrich may end up winning.

Seeking to capitalize on Gingrich’s burst of momentum, one of his top evangelical backers in Florida planned to lead a conference call in the coming days with 1,000 pastors. Others are spreading Gingrich’s message in the state’s many churches and Baptist publications. And Gingrich has already lined up appearances with the religious community for next week.

“The evangelicals are not going to wrap their arms around Romney in this primary or the general election,” says John Grant, a Baptist leader and one of Gingrich’s Florida evangelical chairmen. “Gingrich is pulling these people together quite nicely.”

The power of Florida’s evangelicals depends on their ability to unite. And while they’re nearly united against Romney, they’re not wholly united behind Gingrich. Some prominent religious conservatives are rallying around Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator long known for passionate social conservatism, but generally considered a longshot in the race to challenge President Barack Obama in the fall.

Santorum is showing no signs of bowing out, especially after the final tally suggested he edged Romney in the Iowa caucuses even though there is no officially declared winner.

The continued division leaves the political power of Florida’s evangelicals fractured, just as anti-Romney conservatives have been in other early voting states all year.

“We have to figure out how we’re going to come together,” said John Stemberger, a Santorum supporter who led the 2008 push to amend Florida’s constitution to ban gay marriage.

Stemberger hoped a recent meeting of national evangelical leaders in Texas would do just that. The group held a nonbinding vote that showed overwhelming support for Santorum. But in Florida, there are serious questions about the viability of Santorum, who hired a Florida staff just last week.

Gingrich’s organization pales when compared to Romney’s, which has been years in the making. But Gingrich’s team is working to capitalize on doubts about Santorum, as well as on Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s recent exit.

Gingrich’s Florida operation is led by Jose Mallea, who managed Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2010 race.

Even before Perry’s exit, Gingrich’s team had been quietly courting key staff and supporters from both the Perry and Santorum camps to boost an organization that was stood up in December.

Underscoring the challenge Gingrich faces, he has yet to run any television ads in Florida, where Romney and his allies have had the airwaves to themselves since mid-December. Mallea said Gingrich will advertise in Spanish and English soon.

Gingrich also faces renewed attention on flaws in his personal life that could turn off evangelicals here.

In an ABC News interview broadcast Thursday, Gingrich’s second wife said he sought an “open marriage” arrangement so he could have a mistress and a wife. Asked about his ex-wife’s assertions during a debate that night, Gingrich said it was false and lashed out at the media.

“I wish he didn’t have that background, but I honestly believe he’s had a real renaissance experience,” said Grant, the Gingrich supporter.

In recent years, Gingrich has publicly acknowledged mistakes, converted to Catholicism and says prayer is an important part of his life.

Gingrich’s team estimates evangelicals will represent between 25 percent and 40 percent of the Florida GOP primary electorate.

Exit polling from the 2008 GOP primary shows that approximately 39 percent of voters identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians. They were almost evenly split that year, with 30 percent for Sen. John McCain, 29 percent for Romney, 29 percent for Mike Huckabee and 7 percent for Rudy Giuliani.

Romney would be happy with a repeat performance. His team has organized weekly conference calls with a group of social conservative leaders it hopes will produce at least some of the evangelical vote.

But Romney is not going out of his way to appease this group. He recently declined to respond to the Florida Family Policy Council voter guide, which Stemberger organized. The guide highlights Romney’s non-answers on key social issues prominently and was emailed to 100,000 Florida evangelicals this week. It also is expected to be faxed and emailed to about 8,000 churches.

While Stemberger and Grant don’t agree on a Romney alternative, they share deep concerns about him.

“I hear that if it’s Obama and Romney, evangelicals have no place to go. But there’s a third choice: It’s called home,” Grant said.

A Brief History of “State Capitalism”

Something old, something new

A brief history of “state capitalism”

IN SEPTEMBER 1789 George Washington appointed Alexander Hamilton as America’s first ever treasury secretary. Two years later Hamilton presented Congress with a “Report on Manufactures”, his plan to get the young country’s economy going and provide the underpinnings for its hard-fought independence. Hamilton had no time for Adam Smith’s ideas about the hidden hand. America needed to protect its infant industries with tariffs if it wanted to see them grow up.

State capitalism has been around for almost as long as capitalism itself. Anglo-Saxons like to think of themselves as the perennial defenders of free-market orthodoxy against continental European and Asian heresy. In reality every rising power has relied on the state to kickstart growth or at least to protect fragile industries. Even Britain, the crucible of free-trade thinking, created a giant national champion in the form of the East India Company.

The appetite for industrial policy grew with the eating, and after the second world war intervention became a mark of civilization as well as common sense. The Europeans created industrial powerhouses and welfare states. The Asians poured resources into national champions.

This long era of state activism has left a surprisingly powerful legacy, despite the more recent fashion for privatisation and deregulation. The rich world still has a large number of state-owned or state-dominated companies. For example, France owns 85% of EDF, an energy company; Japan 50% of Japan Tobacco; and Germany 32% of Deutsche Telekom. These numbers add up: across the OECD state-owned enterprises have a combined value of almost $2 trillion and employ 6m people.

The new kind of state capitalism started in Singapore. Lee Kuan Yew, its founding father, was prime minister for more than 30 years and a tireless advocate of “Asian values”, by which he meant a mixture of family values and authoritarianism. He rivalled Beatrice Webb in his faith in the wisdom of the state. But he also grasped that Singapore’s best chance lay in attracting the world’s most powerful corporations, though he rejected the laissez-faire ideas that flourished in Asia’s other great port city, Hong Kong.

Singapore could easily have remained a tiny oddity but for a succession of earth-shaking events. The first was the oil embargo imposed by the Arab petrostates in the wake of the 1973 Yom Kippur war, quadrupling the price of oil and shifting the balance of power in the world economy. Arab governments tightened their control over the newly valuable oil companies and amassed growing financial surpluses. For them the economic shock was proof of the power of their oil weapon. For the Chinese it demonstrated the importance of securing a safe supply of oil and other raw materials.

The second event was Deng Xiaoping’s transformation of China. Deng borrowed heavily from the Singaporean model. He embraced globalisation by creating special economic zones and inviting foreign companies in. He espoused corporatism by forcing state enterprises to model themselves on Western companies. And he concentrated resources on national champions and investment in research and development. By doing all this, he plugged 1.3 billion people into the world economy.

The final event was the collapse of Soviet communism. This was initially seen as one of the great triumphs of liberalism, but it soon unleashed dark forces. Communist apparatchiks-turned-oligarchs grabbed chunks of the economy. Between 1990 and 1995 the country’s GDP dropped by a third. Male life expectancy shrank from 64 to 58. Once-captive nations broke away. In 1998 the country defaulted on its debts.

The post-Soviet disaster created a craving for order. Vladimir Putin, then Russia’s president, reasserted direct state control over “strategic” industries and brought the remaining private-sector oligarchs to heel. But just as important as the backlash in Russia was the one in China. The collapse of the Soviet Union confirmed the Chinese Communist Party’s deepest fear: that the end of party rule would mean the breakdown of order. The only safe way forward was a judicious mixture of private enterprise and state capitalism

As Romney so eloquently has stated  that there has been a frontal assault on Capitalism, we should begin this debate on how Capitalism has been  for centuries and later to discuss how it has evolved.  I do not think there is ANY candidate that does not believe we need to have capitalism at the core of our  society. It is how it has become perverted and has gone against the other cores of our society  those being humanity, equality and the protection of the health well-being and rights of all citizens of the United States is above all  … even CAPITALISM. We now must seek a balance  for all these values to peacefully coexist again.

It is my intention to bring this  need to the forefront of the rest of this presidential election cycle

Are Women Holding Back Our Economic Growth?

Admittedly the title sounds ridiculous… but is it rally?? Tell me after you read the article.

The New York Times reported earlier this month that consumer spending, while slightly up for the holidays, wasn’t as strong as many were hoping and ended up looking pretty depressed in 2011.

 Consumers’ unwillingness to open up their pocketbooks and go on credit-fueled shopping sprees portends dismal economic growth in the near future.

They have already cut back so far that there is “little room for a big increase in spending in 2012,” as the article puts it. And it reports, “Consumer spending makes up 70 percent of the economy, so until it ignites, general growth is likely to be sluggish.”

It’s no mistake that both the people interviewed for the article were women. There’s Sarah M. Manley from Minnesota, who has frozen crab legs she bought on discount stowed away for Valentine’s Day and now buys milk in plastic bags from the gas station instead of in cartons. There’s also Lynette Paudel of Ohio, who plans to drive her 2003 minivan until it breaks but was lucky enough to avoid being let go from her high school English teaching job. When it comes to talk of consumer spending, we might as well be talking almost exclusively about women. They oversee 80 percent of consumer spending, totaling $3.7 trillion. As long as they continue to suffer in the recession, the rest of the economy will sputter along.

Paudel is very lucky to have kept her teaching job. Since the recovery officially began in 2009, women have actually been losing jobs. They saw 46,000 disappear, while at the same time men made some gains, getting back 1.26 million. Women’s unemployment rate has also inched up while men saw a decline. And a large part of that trend is that women were big losers in public sector layoffs, losing 374,000 jobs. A lot of those came from public education jobs — elementary and high school teachers like Paudel.

That’s not the whole story, however. Men have also been making gains in the public sector while women lost, driven by huge job losses for administrative and secretarial positions. Men are even gaining in the traditionally female-dominated retail industry.

Even those women who are still employed are likely struggling with other factors. Housing debt is a huge barrier holding consumers back. The Times article reports, “with more than one in every five borrowers still owing more than their homes are worth, many homeowners feel too pressed to spend on much more than the essentials.”

But as the Consumer Federation of America found, women were 32 percent more likely to receive subprime mortgages than men across all product lines, even though they have similar credit profiles. Those high-cost loans, often pawned off on those who could least afford them, have led to a massive wave of foreclosures and put many homeowners underwater. And overall, women’s representation in the mortgage market has grown in recent decades — the number of single women homeowners, for example, grew by 4 million between 1994 and 2002. They’re likely to be struggling under heavy mortgage debt loads.

They also, of course, make less than their male counterparts for similar work. So while American workers’ wages have stagnated over the past three decades, women have yet to even catch up to men.

It’s likely that some of the women overseeing that 80 percent of consumer spending aren’t going it alone. Many are making decisions for their families’ spending, and if they are unemployed hopefully they can rely on income from an employed spouse. (Although in a recent poll almost a quarter of respondents had a family member who had experienced job loss.) But if consumer spending is going to continue driving the economy, and the economic recovery, what’s happening to women in the recovery period can’t be ignored. Things have been bad and show no sign of looking up.

THE GREAT AMERICAN RIFT

THE GREAT AMERICAN RIFT

3 years ago I said that as far as our economy was concerned it did not matter who won the presidential race because we were in for very difficult times… I just never realized myself HOW difficult those times would become.

Across the country Americans are still in shock that they are so much worse off than they were in 2006… and most do not see it getting better although the all hope it will… but in reality I see nothing to indicate it will get better… OHH yes I see SOME economic reports that show this thing or that thing  is getting better…  only to find out  later that  it as not as great as reported originally… This makes most of us think that we cannot trust the economic data being provided anymore.

Let’s take the rate of inflation… for most of us that means the CPI or the Consumer Price index… most of us see greater inflation in our household budgets than what the government reports… this is not new… in fact the government over the past 30 years or so has CHANGED how this inflation figure is calculated 19 times.. . Yes, you read that correctly, that is not a typo…..  NINETEEN times, each and every time decreasing the actual inflation that a normal household really experiences. Don’t believe me… look at your utility bills that last few years… or see how much your food Costs are… and the size of the package your food is in… it may not appear smaller… but if you look at the actual weight on the package it is… you are paying the same or MORE for less.

Gasoline, food, utilities insurances (Health and auto and homeowners) and much more that are most of the actual budget of a home are sky high and wages are not up… and taxes have risen in some areas like the so called penny tax School taxes in many places are HIGHER than property taxes… and we are not getting the bag for our buck there… but I will save education issues for a later post. Even my cable bill with Comcast or the new name X-finity is outrageously high… and like most Americans I am fed up, frustrated and feel helpless when my elected officials are getting good paychecks and NOT helping the people who they were elected to serve… Politics which was always a dirty word has become so bad that I fear some people will cause physical harm to me if I bring it up in a conversation….

OK so I hope most of us can agree with the into here… now for what I see as the GREAT AMERIAN RIFT.

No surprise that Politics is to blame for where we are… the only difference we may have is WHO or Which Party you feel is responsible… and to tell you the truth I don’t care which side you’re on… it is bad. Politics used to be negotiating from an ideological viewpoint the ways in which to make this country great and keep it great… NOW however I see it as just an argument on Ideology… and the polarization of this country has never been so great since the Civil War that tore this country apart and took decades to recover economically and more than a entry to mostly heal the social divide (which unfortunately still exists in areas of racism, homophobia, religion, women’s rights,  and the Right to Life movement, etc) we are a nation divided to the point that if we could  see one state on one side of the issue I would not be surprised if a succession movement evolved again. But geographical divides will never be tolerated… and so, because of politicians, we find ourselves involved and on the brink of another civil war in this country… the GREAT RIFT will cause a great divide that may never heal under our current form of government.

The squeaky wheel gets the grease… or so they say… but Politics has become a situation of such Ultra extremists in both parties controlling the entire party and hence setting an agenda that is not in keeping with the actual real beliefs of those in that party…. And WORSE… not being honest loyal Americans FIRST.  IF they were good Americans I believe they would want and FIGHT for is best for the PEOPLE of America….  It is PEOPLE who make America great… and sadly we are losing that greatness because of cowardly politicians. They bow to those motivated to vote… so I say with a loud voice the GREATEST THREAT TO THE AMERICAN WAY IS VOTER APPATHY

Children of parents who constantly fight and call each other names and LIE never fare well in life Citizens of a country whose politicians are so intransient in their positions suffer from that as well…  Unless your party gets 80% of a vote where at least 80 percent of the registered voters voted… THEN YOU DO NOT HAVE A MANDATE FROM THE AMERICAN PUBLIC…you simply won an election… so get over your self-grandioseing and get on with helping America… you incessant BS is aggravating to most Americans to say the least.

Someone needs to come out and speak for the SILENT MAJORITY and the loud mouths and liars are in control lately… I believe 80 percent of Americans are not happy with either party the way they are behaving… and this polarization of America MUST STOP. Am I angry?? DAMN right I am.

I am a lifelong Republican… and quite frankly I am pissed off at my party… and the Tea Party in particular … for what they are doing to America today. BACHMAN… oh for crying out loud… Spineless politicians who will not say the truth about her obvious ignorance in the things she says… WHY… “OH well… She is a Republican and we can’t call her out on false statements!”… Most of America knows what you our LEADERS are afraid to say and would welcome honesty and straight talk for a change… at least I know I would… you lose my respect every day when you allow this type of behavior in OUR party…

I voted for Obama… why?? Because I tough he was better then what you put up for President… I like John McCain… but Sarah Palin… come on guys did you intentionally want to lose??

Taxes.. Can any republican say with all honesty that it is right for a Hedge Fund manager to make millions… sometimes hundreds of millions and only pay 15% taxes when his staff pays 30-40 percent in taxes.  And don’t give me the BS that he creates jobs with lower taxes… he creates NOTHING but profits a leach on society…. Shaving pennies from hundreds of trades a day in rapid computer generated trades… the Stock market is no longer a free and fair market with these types of shenanigans going on.

I would LOVE less regulation from Government… but greed and corruption exists and Corporations cannot be trusted to do what is right… they incentivized by one thing and one thing only profits… and who can blame them when you have corrupted the system so much as to let them fail the people of this country and demonize anyone who dares speaks up for the human condition in this country… instead encourage them to do what is right with financial incentives if need be… and then and only then will I support a reduction on regulations.. I said it above and I will repeat it again now: PEOPLE make America Great.. NOT businesses or corporations… we have the most creative and innovative collection of minds in this world… yet it appears they get sucked into how to maximize profit and to disregard the human condition.  I cannot begin to say how ashamed I am sometimes for being Republican… but yet I will not become a Democrat… for they are besieged with equally distasteful ideas… and will drive their party into the ground unless they learn to compromise and negotiate for the benefit of the American public … even if it is at the expense of some of their pet projects.  Simply put.. BOTH of your parties are more damaging to AMERICA then IRAN… because you have lost your souls for your ideology to the detriment of this country

China: China is NOT our friend,, and dependence on them for the benefit of business has NOT helped America.. Ohh yes it may have reduced some costs to the American Public… but in reality we lost more in jobs and wages and disposable income and reduced our GDP by doing so. And WHAT DID WE GAIN.. Corporate profits at the expense of our country… the same for NAFTA and other free trade agreements.. And now in our current situation we have no ability to create jobs for our unemployed as there are fewer factories to employ the people we need to give jobs to. WTO is basically a fare to the Hourly wage earner in the industrialized world.

Government is NOT the same as Households or business… and it not the same at FEDERAL level as it is on the state level… IN Economic down times like these GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO SPEND MORE TO HELP CREAT JOBS AND BRING BACK A TAX BASE OF EMPLOYED PEOPLE (Do I have to remind you of Roosevelt’s initiatives that helped bring us out of the Great depression) … Cutting Corporate taxes does NOT create jobs as you have told people or by extending the tax cuts last time around you have not seen a real increase in hiring… and why is that.. Well Mr. Politician… our economy is more than 70% consumer driven: no jobs, no spending… no spending then no company wants to invest in plant, equipment or hiring… so where do the jobs come from…ONE word… INFRASTRUCTURE  as these projects are critical in America today when our infrastructure is crumbling and jobs are just not available anywhere else… and they have to be paid for by our government through HIGHER taxes on those that can afford and on corporations…

Why is it so hard for you to understand BASIC economics and tell the truth instead of pandering to a minority base of zealots who will destroy this country?

SO… what is the RIFT we are facing in America today? It is Class Warfare… based in steep and entrenched Ideology that is not often based in reality or honesty. It is the division in America not just between political parties but in the haves and have-nots… It is politically driven and fueled by greed and fear and is clouded by lies and distortions of truths… it is the worst of all types of warfare.. it is the kind that fuels revolutions in other countries… and destroys nations… it is  the warning bell to the fall of America as   great nation and we will not even know until we have fallen so low as  to not be able to pull ourselves up.  And it seems to be savored not only by our enemies and countries jealous of our success…. But also by the Media who likes conflict and sound bites and lacks the same courage to set things straight and to further polarize this country based on ideology.

So as this election season now seems to be starting and we have 15more months of this slander and false statement season and cowardly politicians on both side.. Remember this… WE are ultimately responsible for what is about to happen.. WE the SILENT MAJORITY… who has failed to speak up… who accepts  the media on face value… who blindly believes their parties rhetoric… and then the PEOPLE who FAIL to VOTE… as I said above the GREATEST threat to America today is Apathy.. a failure to vote and to make your voice head at the voting booths.. WE are responsible for the future of this Country….

Who among you will raise to the occasion and do the simplest thing to help it by voting… and who among you will just lay down and accept whatever happens… From the Primaries where you will select your candidate (*where I fear the most for my party in getting a BAD candidate again because the radicals get their supports to the polls and the majority of republicans just sit back and watch and then find out they have a  fool for a candidate)… to the General election where you should vote for the BEST person for President as opposed to your Party’s CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT…. WILL YOU STAND UP FOR AMERICA??

A final note to my Republican Party.. If you give me someone like Bachman as  our candidate I will NOT vote for her… but I will vote. Republican or not I am an American first… and that woman has no business even being in Congress let alone holding the office of President of the United States. Until you  my fellow republicans find your backbone and speak truth and care for the AMERICAN people I will not be able to vote Republican .

Greetings Ms Shelly, Whoever and wherever you are.

Establishing Democracy Challenges Egypt

The smoke of the tear gas and raging fires  had not even cleared the air in Egypt when the Western World started sending people and money to Egypt to reshape its political landscape in their own image.

Even CNN news has now joined by anointing  ONE of the opposition figures Mohamed ElBaradei and Arab League chief Amr Muss as the top leading contenders to become Egypt’s next president. Premature?? I would have to say so as Egypt has yet to decide what form of government  they want to have. Such a new government may not even have a president!

The world watch in disbelief of the power of the people in Egypt in tearing down the Mubarak  regime. A monumental task to say the least. Western powers leaders in their thirst for cementing an ally in Egypt  salivate  at their new prospects. Totalitarian and Authoritarian  and other repressive regimes were stunned by these events and others taking place in the Arab  world  were forced to examine their own policies and what steps they would take in similar circumstances.  Each chosing their own methods and now finding  that  capitulation in one form or another may be necessary.

YES, the face of the middle east is changing.  but while the inclusiveness of the people of Egypt and these countries is evident, the deeply held sense of nationalism and core values will not change. Yesterday I discussed religion in the region. Make no mistake, Religion will be an important factor in how the  new Middle East is formed.  But there are other issues that are swept under the rug including but not limited to the feelings that the Western world does not value them in a respectful way.  The same grey haired people in power in the Western world have the same attitude towards the middle East and now look to be a part of that change to reap the benefits of it.

Western Governments under the guise of international NGO’s are even now pouring money into some political parties that would favor these Western Powers.  My fear is that the hard-fought battle to bring power back to the people of Egypt will all be lost if outside money is effective in influencing the political landscape of Egypt’s future.

The people of Egypt accomplished a task that will live forever in history. but how the future history is written should/MUST be the choice of the PEOPLE OF EGYPT. The task ahead  makes what has already been accomplished look more like and ant hill next to the Mountain that has to be  climbed in rebuilding Egypt.

Personally I believe that an American form of government is not in the best interest of Egypt. A president is not in keeping with the needs of the People of Egypt at this time. I would hope that a parliamentary form of government would  be formed with a Prime Minister at the head.

Why would I hope for this?? Simply because there is no  party strong enough to help Egypt move forward. Because the Voices of the people are many and the new political parties are numerous it makes sense to force the parties to work together in forming a government. Only a Coalition  of parties agreeing to form a government would ensure the plurality of  the PEOPLE of Egypt in the forming of a new government. Under a Parliamentary system the government can be disbanded at anytime and a new coalition would have to be formed to govern the nation of Egypt.

This I see for Egypt as the ideal solution. This is the best for a DEMOCRACY that is so new to what challenges a democracy faces and allows the flexibility to change with the times and to make corrections in the way in which Egypt’s policies going forward can accurately reflect the WILL OF THE PEOPLE.

This will also help diminish the potential for significant influence of foreign governments on Egyptian politics in the short run. A senator from Each state who will no longer have immunity from criminal charges) and local Representatives of the PEOPLE  in the general assembly of Parliament where the power to form and dissolve a government should and must reside.

The challenges to Egypt  in how to form local districts assuring local representatives as well as the actual form of government is but the climbing  of the base of their mountain. regardless the PEOPLE must be fairly and adequately represented on any new form of government.  the repeal of laws and the creation of other laws  will be a priority. The Foreign Policy but be re-examined and  the major issues of the people in employment, Food, WATER,  Cost of living and the physical health of ALL Egyptians will need to be addressed in short time.

I have made personal recommendation on how to address the Water issues with the  Nile River. I have suggested ways to address, investigate and renegotiate  the possible corruption  in the awarding of contracts to foreign companies now operating in Egypt.  And now I address the potential issues facing the People of Egypt in going forward in their quest for a true democracy.

I am not an Egyptian by birth or by marriage. I have no Egyptian relatives, only a few friends, but I stand ready to help Egypt in its future if requested. I have no political agenda only the desire to see Egypt grow and developed. It would be sad indeed if Egypt went the way of the notorious French Revolution, where the same system that was torn down by the people was  more or less resurrected in the following 20 years.

Oh hear me Peoples of Egypt. You are free to determine your own destiny. Choose wisely and allow yourself to make mistakes that ar correctable and flexible enough to make the changes you will inevitably have to make along the way. Fear those that crave power. Put in place ways to peacefully throw out those that betray you and your needs. Know that no system is perfect and will always need to be changed. But you the people of Egypt NOW more than ever have an  opportunity to create from nothing. Learning from the history of Countries that have grown and developed and take care of the needs of their people. I encourage you.. no I beg you PLEASE  chose plurality in your government. Inclusiveness is critical in how you go forward for as you have already demonstrated the WILL OF THE PEOPLE of Egypt is mighty in its voice. Be true to yourself.

Unemployment, Employment and Wages as REAL Indicators of Economic Health or Recovery

There are 3 numbers that need to be considered:
First the NEW claims… this is how many jobs have been recently been lost.
Second is the Continuing Claims.. meaning those that are on unemployment but have yet to find a job.
Third is the EMPLOYMENT number.. by which we can see if the number of jobs have increased in the region.
The numbers we DON’T know are those who have taken part time jobs or are underemployed (i.e. a cabinet maker now bagging groceries are a substantial decrease in wages)and/or those that have totally given up in looking for work.
Therefor to see ANY recovery or trend we must look at the total employment numbers as well as the total wages paid and compare them over a period of time. Minor adjustments can cause a false impression of the real numbers so be careful when trying to anticipate a future based upon a blip in data.
As our economy has generally been 70 percent consumer driven it may be a better indicator to look at these numbers instead of the current irrational and speculative stock market as an indicator of our economy.