I posted a piece some time ago about “Entrepreneurs” (a label I am not fond of) are not as caught up in the money when they are building a business… and in another post I described what I do as making a baby but knowing it would not grow up and unwilling to always have to take care of that baby and how it is best left to professional baby sitters (hired CEO’s COO’s and CFO’s). I also touched lightly about how huge financial success comes at a huge price.
my Hydrogen Fueling system of canisters is one of those projects. I have worked so hard over a decade or more that it will be awesome to see this project launch and do what I hope it will do for the human race around the world… but it also comes with exorbitant profits.. and there is where my concerns start to mount.
I have made some pretty significant claims of potential earning in the future from my project and as ridiculously high as they appear to you I assure you that they are staggering to me. But, I have worked my math many times over to see where the numbers really are.
Generally the math looks like this:
I anticipate 6 canisters per vehicle because it is a great selling point. a vehicle that can travel 1,000 miles on a full load of fuel.
I also believe that within 2 years 1 million vehicles could be sold and that it will double every year thereafter for the next 3 years capping at 10 million in the 6th year and 12 million in the 7th in NEW vehicle sales per year.
Year 3 = 2 million; year 4 = 4 million your 5 = 8 million Year 6 = 10 million and year 7 = 12 million for 36 million in the USA alone and an additional 12 million total i Canada for a total of 50 million vehicles in North America.
An additional 40 million in Western Europe and 50 million in China another 25 million in India (both China and India will continue to expand those numbers for another 3-5 years.) with 25 million vehicles in SE Asia and Eastern Europe and Russia.
That would make 190 million vehicles and I will round it to 200 million for South America and Africa.. which is entirely too low .
200 million vehicles times 6 canisters = 1.2 billion canisters and an equal amount that would be needed to run through the refilling distribution process for 2.4 billion canisters in use in 7-10 years.
My initial royalty fee was to be between 500 and 700 dollars per canister. When I look at these numbers I am left shaking my head and have the realization that this kind of money is both excessive and unfair to humanity. That would mean over a trillion dollars in profit on just the canisters not including the actual operations of the refueling and distribution operations.
The number of canisters will reduce based on 2 factors. 1/ recycling them in the network and 2/ technology advances in material sciences allowing for greater fuel capacity in the same size canisters thus hypothetically reducing the number of canisters per vehicle in the future.
When looking at the US market alone and a lower number of canisters I had anticipated 50 billion in fees.. but then the international market became something that needed to be opened almost immediately given the automakers are international as well . AT that time I was looking at 100-150 billion dollars in earned fees. Again not including the operations profits. and this will offend many people… I will not have to pay ANY taxes on these fees or profits based on existing tax code.
What is fair? What is reasonable? Should I look at the overall profit potential .. or the more reasonable per canister fees when judging the amount of reasonableness.. and what if my projections are way too high on number of canisters… once sold there is no going back to raise the price post sale.
I only care about the money as a measurement of the success or failure of this project… never in my lifetime could I spend that amount of money on myself.. hence I have repeatedly indicated I would give that money away. Also why I have been looking for specific people who can act as a conscious to the foundations that would spend this money long after I am dead and gone.
No human being on earth should be allowed to accumulate a trillion dollars in cash assets…. it is immoral to even believe any human being could hold that much power… and sa we all know power corrupts. So I must find a balance between what is a reasonable fee and then be able to cap my earnings. But at what level or point should I do that? And that is where people and politicians alike will attack me as greedy.
I do not think of myself as that way, and so I needed to share my conundrum with my readers. What amount of money is too much for one person to make or earn?? Who should decide?? and how much is too much for a person to use for themselves when earning that kind of money and wielding the power that comes with it.
I sometimes think this is a dream I am having.. I always wanted to make a difference in the world for as many people as I could.. but when I hear people mock Zuckerberg over his desire to give away 99% of this wealth. I wonder the amount of hate and jealousy that I would have to face for making 10 times more than him and not be a public company.
People have this unrealistic view of money… and the people who accumulate it in large sums. Yes there are luxurious benefits.. but there are huge tradeoffs in sacrificing one’s life and privacy and safety and being exposed to the public in ways that cannot be controlled or worse blatantly false accusations and speculations (gossip) and or being totally misunderstood. My saving may be that I am already supposedly “old” and would not have to deal with it as long as others.. but it still gives me trepidations as to what success will bring in this endeavor.
I am both excited and afraid of what lies ahead.